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Superforecasting
- The Art and Science of Prediction
- Narrated by: Joel Richards
- Length: 9 hrs and 45 mins
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Publisher's Summary
From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions.
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people - including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer - who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters".
In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future - whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life - and is destined to become a modern classic.
PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying reference material will be available in your My Library section along with the audio.
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- Gareth Whitecap
- 2021-01-23
Overall, somewhat disappointing
This could/should have been a much better book. On the one hand, there is a lot of detail without a very concise summary of the key points. The many anecdotes were historically interesting without contributing enormously to the key points raised in the book. More specifically, with the political anecdotes, the book does not discuss how politicians use personal political judgement to overlay the baseline forecast to end up with their decision, does not discuss how the act of measurement, as in a political poll can affect future outcomes and really does not discuss at all how 'success' in forecasting is actually measured.
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- Amazon Customer
- 2022-05-26
loved it
Great advice for general life planning :) The summary at the end was very helpful
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