Obtenez 3 mois à 0,99 $/mois

OFFRE D'UNE DURÉE LIMITÉE
Page de couverture de As US and Russia negotiate again behind Kyiv’s back, Ukrainian and European weakness is exposed

As US and Russia negotiate again behind Kyiv’s back, Ukrainian and European weakness is exposed

As US and Russia negotiate again behind Kyiv’s back, Ukrainian and European weakness is exposed

Écouter gratuitement

Voir les détails du balado

À propos de cet audio

 Renewed talk of no-longer secret negotiations between the Kremlin and the White House over a plan to end the war in Ukraine that heavily favours Russia has added to a broader sense of doom in Kyiv and among its western partners.Coupled with the continuing fallout from a sweeping corruption scandal among Ukraine’s elites and stalling efforts in Brussels to provide additional financial aid to Kyiv, a storm is brewing that may lead to Moscow prevailing in its war of aggression.However, this is not a foregone conclusion. True, Ukraine is having a very difficult time at the moment on various fronts. The fall of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine is a question of when, not if, and of how many men both sides will lose before Russia captures the ruins of the city.Russia has also upped pressure on the Zaporizhian part of the front and around Kherson on Ukraine’s Black Sea coast. It is very likely that the Kremlin will continue to push its current advantages, with fighting possibly increasing in the north again around Ukraine’s second-largest city of Kharkiv.For now, the war of attrition clearly favours Russia. But from a purely military perspective, neither the fall of Pokrovsk nor further Russian territorial gains elsewhere spell the danger of an imminent Ukrainian collapse.However, war is never solely a military endeavour — it also requires political will and financial resources. A more existential threat to Ukraine’s war effort, therefore, is the continuing fallout from the corruption scandal. Here, too, certainties are few and far between.A characteristic feature of political scandals in Ukraine is the difficulty of predicting the reaction of Ukrainian society to them. Some incidents can become a trigger for large-scale protests that lead to massive change.This was the case with the Euromaidan revolution in 2014. The revolution triggered a chain of events from the annexation of Crimea to the Russian-proxy occupation of parts of the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, to the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.By contrast, other political crises pass without major upheaval. This was the case with the dismissal of the popular commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, in 2024. Widely seen as a possible challenger to Volodymyr Zelensky in future presidential elections, Zaluzhnyi was subsequently sent into exile as Ukraine’s ambassador to London.So far, the current corruption scandal has not sparked mass protests in Ukraine. Nor has there been a very harsh response from European leaders. But the fact that virtually all of Zelensky’s inner circle is involved in corruption, according to Ukraine’s national anti-corruption bureau (Nabu), has forced the president to launch a comprehensive response.Sanctions were imposed on Timur Mindich, Zelensky’s long-term friend and business partner, who fled the country just hours before Nabu raids on November 10. Then, a week after the latest scandal broke, Ukraine’s parliament dismissed the ministers of justice and energy, German Galushchenko and Svitlana Hrynchukwho, who were both involved in the scandal.Meanwhile, Zelensky himself has embarked on a whistle-stop diplomatic tour of European capitals to shore up support for his beleaguered government and country.He managed to secure deliveries of US liquefied natural gas imports from Greece, which should help Ukraine through the difficult winter months. A landmark military deal with France also promises improved air defences for Ukraine in the short-term and the delivery of 100 fighter jets over the next decade.Important as they are, these are, at best, stop-gap measures rather than game changers. And not even all the necessary stop-gap measures are done deals. The EU and its member states are still prevaricating on an urgently needed loan to Ukraine. If this loan does not materialise, Kyiv will run out of money in February to pay its soldiers, civil servants and pensioners.In the meantime, Zelensky is also facing pressure from his own parliamentary faction, Servant of the People. He has presented his tour of Europe as a vote of confidence by his western allies. And, for now, he has avoided to offer the resignation of his long-time ally Andrii Yermak, who was also implicated in the latest corruption scandal.As head of the presidential office, Yermak is sometimes considered the de-facto ruler of Ukraine. Dismissing him — which is still a possibility, albeit a remote one — would probably please Zelensky’s domestic and foreign critics. But it would also be a further sign that Zelensky’s political power is, perhaps, fatally weakened.Critically missing in all of this are three things. The first is a Ukrainian succession plan. Opposition politicians like former president Petro Poroshenko and former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko are both unpopular as they are tainted by allegations of corruption during their reigns.There is also no clear route to replacing Zelensky if he refuses to ...
Pas encore de commentaire