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Michael

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Shiller doesn’t get it

Overall
1 out of 5 stars
Performance
2 out of 5 stars
Story
1 out of 5 stars

Reviewed: 2020-05-02

The book spends a lot of time talking about the bitcoin (and gold) narratives. I am not defending bitcoin nor do I think it will go to $1,000,000. I find the bitcoiners like Tulip bubble on steroids. But Shiller gets ALL of the bitcoin narrative wrong! He shows he is an old Boomer who never logged on Fintwit, never listened to a Pomp podcast, never heard the BTC bugs’ and Hodlers’ real narrative. Their (and gold bugs) narrative is a libertarian/Austrian one that Central Banks are inflating asset prices and causing bubbles and malinvestment, causing inequality with low interest rates, QE, etc. and eventually this central bank funny money will find its way into the real (not financial) economy and all fiat currencies will become worthless, and the 100T market cap of fiat will eventually be 100T of BTC when society moves to crypto. HE DOES NOT MENTION THIS IN THE BOOK! Robert Shiller needs to get on FinTwit to understand how bitcoiners and Hodlers actually think before giving a strawman argument about “feeling part of a community”. Boomer Shiller gets the gold bug narrative 100% wrong too.

Mostly an ideological rant, very little investing

Overall
1 out of 5 stars
Performance
2 out of 5 stars
Story
1 out of 5 stars

Reviewed: 2019-08-06

Firstly, I am a Rickards fan and enjoy his talks on Real Vision, Macrovoices, etc. I think Gold will be the asset to own after the QE induced stock bubble blows up.

As for this book, most is ideological ranting (ex. he spent dozens of pages criticizing "nudging theory" and the pseudo academics in the social sciences/arts... I agree, but why was this chapter added to the book? We get it that you are a libertarian, all us gold guys are, but this has nothing to do with investing.) I wanted an investing book, not a libertarian ideological book talking about how divided our society is.

A lot of this was just doomsday talk that all gold bugs already know. And if you don't know about QE, ZIRP, and bubble creation, there are better educational books out there as he doesn't get into the details that much.

He also makes the mistake that Schiff and other gold bugs make: instead of talking about probabilities, Rickards talks about certainties such as the dollar is certain to go to zero, US economy will crash before any other markets, and it will happen right now. JR never acknowledges that dollar could go higher (Brent Johnson Dollar milkshake argument), which could cause the price of gold to tank just like it did at $1900. Why not assign probabilities and talk about the opposing arguments? We investors need to do this.

I also think Rickards should have got a professional narrator as his voice is kind of monotone and "mumbly". The start when he talked about his career in the intelligence community was interesting.

All in all, I do not recommend this book. Instead, watch Rickards macrovoices, realvision, and other interviews.

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