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2034

A Novel of the Next World War

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2034

Auteur(s): Elliot Ackerman, Admiral James Stavridis USN
Narrateur(s): Emily Woo Zeller, P.J. Ochlan, Vikas Adam, Dion Graham, Feodor Chin
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From two former military officers and award-winning authors, a chillingly authentic geopolitical thriller that imagines a naval clash between the US and China in the South China Sea in 2034 - and the path from there to a nightmarish global conflagration.

On March 12, 2034, US Navy Commodore Sarah Hunt is on the bridge of her flagship, the guided missile destroyer USS John Paul Jones, conducting a routine freedom of navigation patrol in the South China Sea when her ship detects an unflagged trawler in clear distress, smoke billowing from its bridge. On that same day, US Marine aviator Major Chris "Wedge" Mitchell is flying an F35E Lightning over the Strait of Hormuz, testing a new stealth technology as he flirts with Iranian airspace. By the end of that day, Wedge will be an Iranian prisoner, and Sarah Hunt's destroyer will lie at the bottom of the sea, sunk by the Chinese Navy. Iran and China have clearly coordinated their moves, which involve the use of powerful new forms of cyber weaponry that render US ships and planes defenseless. In a single day, America's faith in its military's strategic pre-eminence is in tatters. A new, terrifying era is at hand.

So begins a disturbingly plausible work of speculative fiction, co-authored by an award-winning novelist and decorated Marine veteran and the former commander of NATO, a legendary admiral who has spent much of his career strategically outmaneuvering America's most tenacious adversaries. Written with a powerful blend of geopolitical sophistication and human empathy, 2034 takes us inside the minds of a global cast of characters - Americans, Chinese, Iranians, Russians, Indians - as a series of arrogant miscalculations on all sides leads the world into an intensifying international storm. In the end, China and the United States will have paid a staggering cost, one that forever alters the global balance of power.

Everything in 2034 is an imaginative extrapolation from present-day facts on the ground combined with the authors' years working at the highest and most classified levels of national security. Sometimes it takes a brilliant work of fiction to illuminate the most dire of warnings: 2034 is all too close at hand, and this cautionary tale presents the listener a dark yet possible future that we must do all we can to avoid.

* This audiobook edition includes an exclusive interview with co-author Admiral James Stavridis.

©2021 Elliot Ackerman and Admiral James Stavridis (P)2021 Penguin Audio Fiction de genre Militaires Politique et espions Politiques Thrillers et romans à suspense Espionnage Chine Fiction Guerre Japon impérial Moyen-Orient Intéressant Russie China War Political Thriller Fiction

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Ce que les critiques en disent

“It is hard to write in great detail about what ensues in this novel without giving away the drama of its denouement. Suffice it to say that there is conflict and catastrophe on a large scale, and it unfolds, as major conflicts tend to, with surprising twists and turns.... The strengths of the novel are anything but incidental to the background of one of its authors, Adm. Stavridis, a former destroyer and carrier strike group commander who retired from the Navy in 2013 as NATO Supreme Allied Commander in Europe.... Adm. Stavridis not only understands how naval fleets work; he has clearly given a great deal of thought to America’s biggest strategic risks, and at the top of the list is war with China, which, as this book seems designed to point out, could occur quite by accident and at almost any time.... One of the messages of this book is that war is utterly unpredictable and that opportunist adversaries of the U.S. are likely to play important roles in any widening confrontation.... 2034 is nonetheless full of warnings. Foremost is that war with China would be folly, with no foreseeable outcome and disaster for all. This is not a pessimistic book about America’s potential, but the picture of the world it paints before the central conflict will be a difficult one for many to accept, albeit one well supported by facts.” (Wall Street Journal)

"An unnerving and fascinating tale of a future.... The book serves as a cautionary tale to our leaders and national security officials, while also speaking to a modern truth about arrogance and our lack of strategic foresight.... The novel is an enjoyable and swiftly paced but important read.” (The Hill)

“This crisply written and well-paced book reads like an all-caps warning for a world shackled to the machines we carry in our pockets and place on our laps, while only vaguely understanding how the information stored in and shared by those devices can be exploited.... In 2034, it’s as if Ackerman and Stavridis want to grab us by our lapels, give us a slap or two, and scream: Pay attention! George Orwell’s dystopian masterpiece, Nineteen Eighty-four: A Novel was published 35 years before 1984. Ackerman’s and Stavridis’s book takes place in the not-so-distant future when today’s high school military recruits will just be turning 30.” (The Washington Post)

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Too many stereotypes but a good tactical and strategic analysis. Some of the subplots are corny/cheesy, and some of the characters predictable, but the big picture with the roles of India and Iran make it quite intriguing as a plot.

Overall good story, some flaws

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Well written near-future military conflict story. Would have been realistic, right up until the events of the last year. Obviously it would be foolish and unnecessary for China to engage with the brave men and women in western militaries. The vast majority of people in the west have shown that we have zero grit and willingness to stand up to any threat at all. They would just have to make threatening noises and we would immediately run to our basements and instruct our politicians to give them anything that they ask for. Interesting and thought-provoking story nonetheless.

Exciting!

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The Good:

Narration was excellent
Author clearly has a complex understanding of naval and nuclear warfare
Builds to a very enthralling climax
Cycles of escalation were well thought out
American and select foreign characters were relatable
Action scenes were exciting and didn't get bogged down with hard to follow details

The Bad:

Cyber warfare technology which initiates the conflict is very much a handwaved mcguffin.
Complete lack of clarity as to the nature of the new technology makes it impossible for reader to think about how the characters might address it.
Chinese, Russian, and Iranian characters, with 1 notable exception, come off as Bond villians with completely sensless motives.

Overall:

Quite good. If you are hoping for a deep analysis of potential cyber warfare you will be sorely dissapointed. However, if you are looking for a well thought out protrayal of how a modern superpower conflict would look, with good action and a few interesting characters, I would definetly reccomend it.

Not quite what I expected, but still solid

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as a Canadian wallflower I really like this book because it was a realistic take on what is going on in America I’ve read all Tom Clancy‘s books and the Tom Clancy world and that is more of aurora gung ho Jack Ryan type of character driven book this is a little more realistic all seems less propaganda a great book a great read. very insightful

excellent book smart intelligent

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with every passing day, it seems we're sleepwalking toward the events of this book. entertaining, engaging and thought provoking.

a must read for the times

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The good. The author is an efficient but very good writer. The story moved at good pace. The scenario they created seemed possible, though I think some of the plot devices (e.g., cyber warfare) were overused, unrealistic. The handle on geo-politics was good I thought and they captured the US and China well. Not so sure about India...

The bad. It was perhaps a bit too efficient. I would have liked to have seen more depth added to each of the characters and the authors skipped over long periods of time that could have added more depth to what was a shallow story. IMO they greatly overstated one country's capabilities and this took away from the story. Finally, there ever was to be a WW3, rest assured, America's allies would play some important role. NATO is mentioned in passing. I think this is an example of the efficiency issue mentioned above.

Overall, I would recommend, if you're into this genre.

A short-ish, interesting, well written listen

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For the first half of the book, I thought I had not enjoyed a fictional book like this since reading the first few Tom Clancy books as a teenager in the early 90s. But then, towards the end, I found that it seemed to lose steam. While there's a coda, and an interview with the author (which I've never seen in an audibook before), I think the book should have gone on for a few more chapters and, um, ended. I was not satisfied in that regard. Maybe the authors had to hit a delivery deadline?
This book also takes pains to hit every nearly social justice warrior item you can imagine. It even takes a swing at fracking.
Spoilers:
The book draws heavily from the 2003 Battlestar Galactica mini-series, where the Cylons have the ability to hack the colonial navy's networked fighters and ships, leaving them defenceless destroying them. The authors might as well called the Chinese "Cylons." They even resort to using ancient fighters as their go-to to fight back, just like BSG. That whole plot-line is very poorly paid off, however. Indeed, I don't think it was paid off much at all. I think they should be sending Ronald D. Moore and David Eick royalty checks.
Written by an admiral, I expected fewer flights of fantasy. I didn't know an F-18 could carry Tsar Bomba, because that's what it would have needed to accomplish what happens, twice, in this book. So much for only using "tactical" nukes. As for the two American cities hit by nukes, one makes perfect sense, the second does not. It should have been Bremerton.
As an admiral, you would think somewhere in this book, U.S Navy submarines would have played a part? Like a salvo or ten of Tomahawks? Maybe a torpedo? I realize that might be pining for Tom Clancy, but there's no way a naval war with Japan does not involve the U.S. Navy's nuclear fleet.
And, given the impact last week of one ship stuck in the Suez Canal, this book doesn't even touch on what would happen to global trade in a war with China. What, are all those container ships going to keep flowing from China to Long Beach while all this is going on? Who would buy the West's exports?
Russia's involvement seemed hackneyed, at best. And they could magically make a whole division of Spetsnaz appear, only to have a "divine wind" intervene? Because that's what happened.
These are some of the reasons why the second half seemed to fall apart for me. After a good setup, it was a poor ending.

A bit of Battlestar Galactica and Tom Clancy

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interesting idea but fell short on the character depth. overall cool idea for the future

It was ok... it was a bookclub book

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The story bounces between world centers, looks at a world crisis thru the lense of major and minor countries. "The good guy wins" will lead you to cheer for USA. but views from other world leaders creates an irreconcilable difference. The story is really character oriented not a military story, in the end.

intriguing but highly improbable story

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TL:DR = save your time and money, this is one of the worst geopolitical thrillers I’ve read/listened to.

First off, the book is not awful because of who suffers defeats. That is actually an interesting hook on the early part of the novel.

The book is awful for a myriad of other reasons:

1. It relies on cyberwarfare plot twists that are not even remotely explained as to why they are effective
2. Completely implausible US decision for a tactical nuclear first strike
3. A bafflingly incompetent, Girl-boss type character, who rises to a pivotal
position, despite having zero experience/demonstrated ability in this area.
4. The most interesting characters - a Chinese Admiral, an Indian Admiral, and an Iranian Colonel are poorly utilized, and fleshed out. With the exception of the Indian (who is also mysteriously omniscient about geopolitical manoeuvres), the other two characters exist only to coast along, and advance the ridiculous plot.
5. The geopolitical setup, while initially thought provoking (essentially a world of Western Power retreat, and decay in will), is advanced in a purely amateur, fan-fic manner. Apparently regional powers like Turkey, Japan, or major power blocs like the EU don’t make any moves during this terrible scenario.
6. The tactical descriptions are also bafflingly awful, especially given the proven military backgrounds of the authors.
- Apparently submarines of China and the US are insignificant assets in naval combat, or indeed, in nuclear strikes
- carrier battlegroups can apparently completely vanish via stealth, in a world with satellites, long distance drones and longstanding underwater detection grids, oh and other major navies and shipping traffic in the area
7. The world reaction to the nuclear escalation is more or less a shrug - complete nonsense!
8. The climax of an intervention by another nation, to supposedly de-escalate the situation makes absolutely no sense

The authors may be august military men, but they are terrible fiction writers.

A shockingly awful novel of the Third World War

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