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Cotton Forecast: Ample Supply, Soft Demand, and the Fed's Next Move

Cotton Forecast: Ample Supply, Soft Demand, and the Fed's Next Move

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This is your Daily Cotton Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.

Hello everyone and welcome back to the Daily Cotton Price Tracker. I'm Vanessa Clark, and I'm so glad you're here with me today. Let's dive right into what's happening in the cotton market and what you need to know heading into the weekend.

Right now, cotton is trading around 63.92 cents per pound according to Trading Economics, which represents a slight decline from earlier in the day. The market has been showing some interesting volatility this week, and there are several factors driving these movements that are worth your attention.

We're seeing some pressure on cotton prices due to weak export sales data. According to recent USDA reports, US export sales for the week ending October 30 came in at just 81,500 bales, which is down significantly from the previous week and well below the four-week average. This is the kind of soft demand that keeps traders cautious and prices range-bound. Many analysts are pointing to downside potential towards 63 cents as we look ahead.

On the positive supply side, the USDA's November WASDE report raised the forecast for US cotton production by 900,000 bales to 14.1 million bales, citing higher expected yields across most states. Global cotton production was also revised upward by 2.4 million bales, with significant increases in China, the United States, and Brazil. When supplies are plentiful, that typically puts downward pressure on prices.

Another factor to watch is the US dollar strength. A stronger dollar can make cotton more expensive for international buyers, which can dampen demand. We've also seen some equity market weakness this week, with stock performances influencing risk appetite across commodities.

Looking ahead, the market is focused on the USDA's export sales report coming on December 8 and the more detailed WASDE report on December 9. These reports will give us clearer insight into demand trends and help shape price direction going forward. Additionally, there's an 87 percent probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, and stronger economic conditions typically support textile sector demand, which could eventually boost cotton prices.

For anyone trading cotton or thinking about it, the key takeaway is that we're in a consolidation phase. The market is digesting ample supplies and softening demand, but economic policy could shift the picture. Keep monitoring those upcoming USDA reports and watch for any changes in export data that might surprise to the upside.

Thanks so much for tuning in to the Daily Cotton Price Tracker. Be sure to subscribe and join us again next time as we continue tracking this dynamic commodity market. I'm Vanessa Clark, and I'll see you next time.

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