Three edges for December 15 — Achane Over 78.5 rushing yards, Rockets +1.5, and Zubac Over 11.5 rebounds — built on weather leverage, lineup absences, and possession math.

🏈 De’Von Achane OVER 78.5 Rushing Yards (−110)

Forecast screams “run the ball or freeze on live TV.”
Miami’s entire survival plan becomes Achane + outside zone, and Pittsburgh missing T.J. Watt is essentially removing the bouncer from the club and acting shocked when chaos follows.

Key angles:

• Miami = top-6 in rush DVOA
• Achane = 5.8 YPC, a walking cash register
• Watt OUT = edge-setting void
• Game script = condensed passing, run funnel

Outside-zone spam + cold-weather script = volume + efficiency.
78.5 is a fair line… but not for this matchup.

🏀 Rockets +1.5 (−110) — at Nuggets

Denver’s offense is Jokic jazz; Denver’s defense right now is elevator music. With Aaron Gordon + Christian Braun OUT, the Nuggets lose stops and rebounding presence.

Houston brings the antidote:

• #1 offensive rebounding rate in the NBA (38.3%)
• Real size
• Real physicality
• Extra possessions = points you can’t scheme away

Our rebounding-adjusted model makes this HOU by ~3, not Denver -1.5.
Add Denver’s bizarre four-game home skid, and we’re buying the live dog.

🏀 Ivica Zubac OVER 11.5 Rebounds (−138)

Memphis without Zach Edey is a frontcourt vacuum. A few nights ago, Nurkić casually put up 17 boards on this version of the Grizzlies. Zubac is basically Nurkić with TSA PreCheck and the same job description:
“stand near rim, collect misses.”

Aldama + JJJ chase blocks and drift out of position, which is great for highlights and terrible for box-outs. Our probability model has 12+ boards at ~72%, while the juice implies ~58%.

This isn’t a bet — it’s gravity, priced incorrectly.

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