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Thinking in Bets

Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
Auteur(s): Annie Duke
Narrateur(s): Annie Duke
Durée: 6 h et 50 min
4.5 out of 5 stars (89 évaluations)

CDN$ 14,95 par mois; les 30 premiers jours sont gratuits. Annulable en tout temps.

Description

Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. 

In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a handing off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted, and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? 

Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10 percent on the strategy that works 90 percent of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? 

Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and even rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. 

By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate, and successful in the long run. 

Includes a bonus PDF of charts and graphs.

PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying PDF will be available in your Audible Library along with the audio. 

©2018 Annie Duke (P)2018 Penguin Audio

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Moyenne des évaluations de clients

Au global

  • 4.5 out of 5 stars
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  • 4.5 out of 5 stars
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Trier :
  • Au global
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Performance
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Histoire
    4 out of 5 stars

How to to break your personal projected narrative

Great book! Very relatable for anyone. Annie's narration was easy to listen to and best of all remember.

1 personnes sur 1 ont trouvé cette évaluation pertinente

  • Au global
    5 out of 5 stars

Very worthwhile.

A worthwhile perspective to put some time into. Well written and well read. Thanks Annie Duke!

  • Au global
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Performance
    4 out of 5 stars
  • Histoire
    5 out of 5 stars

Changed the way I view the way I make decisions

I enjoyed listening to Annie Duke narrate her book on #Audible1. It allowed the nuances of her ideas, research and insights to shine through. I’m new to the concept of probabilistic thinking and found Annie’s stories and descriptions easy to listen to and understand. I especially liked the luck vs skill bias section. Annie provided practical ways to apply the concepts outlined in the book.

  • Au global
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Performance
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Histoire
    5 out of 5 stars

how to win , and lose like a serious professional

Great book to refer to when you are playing to win, but need to handle inevitable loss...like a winner. Easy to listen to. #Audible1

  • Au global
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Performance
    3 out of 5 stars
  • Histoire
    5 out of 5 stars

First heading was worth the price

"Life is Poker, not Chess" was a game changer for me. The rest of the book just filled that in.
#Audible1

  • Au global
    2 out of 5 stars
  • Performance
    4 out of 5 stars
  • Histoire
    2 out of 5 stars
  • Ses
  • 2018-08-29

Good if one didn't read books it's based on

I found this book contains too little extra information comparing to those books it was based on.
Basically if you didn't read "Thinking Fast and slow" for example you will find this book interesting.
Finished reading on 4th chapter. Could not find enough useful information for me.

1 personnes sur 2 ont trouvé cette évaluation pertinente

  • Au global
    2 out of 5 stars
  • Performance
    3 out of 5 stars
  • Histoire
    3 out of 5 stars

Not what I had hoped for

I was looking forward to discover an interesting look into a decision making method since the title is 'Making smarter decisions when you don't have all the facts'. There were some ideas in there, but really it's mainly a really long set of examples to illustrate human psychology when it comes to decision making. There were probably some over-arching lessons to be learned, but the book is so long winded with examples and human evolutionary facts as to why we make decisions the way we do, that I probably missed the practical actionable content if there was any. Would have been nice to maybe have some kind of summary or plan of action that we can implement following what is discussed in the book, because I really can't summarize and apply any new knowledge after this. Cool concept, but would have been cooler if it was more helpful in showing how to think in bets.

0 personnes sur 1 ont trouvé cette évaluation pertinente

Trier :
  • Au global
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Performance
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Histoire
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Marcus Bircher
  • 2018-02-09

Great insights on improving decision making

Found out about this book via Michael Mauboussin discussing it on twitter - a highly credible source on decision making material - and the book did not disappoint.

'Think like a bettor. Think less about whether we are confident or not and more about how confident we are.'

Few key concepts that I think this book nailed:

Importance of accurate outcome analysis rather than 'resulting' and drawing too tight of a relationship between outcome quality and decision quality in a very uncertain world in which almost everything is a result of a combination of both luck and skill.

Biases she explains greatly - motivated reasoning, hindsight bias, self serving bias, internal conflicts of interest, knowing outcome when analyzing decision, temporal discounting + more.

Making decisions via explicit bets - thinking through wanna bet lens to better recognize there is always a level of uncertainty. Leads to tempering our statements as we stop to quantify the level of risk in our statements/beliefs which ultimately leads us closer to the truth.

Short term vs long term thinking - overestimating impact of momentary events on our happiness leads to irrational and emotional thinking which can degrade the quality of our bets and increase chance of bad outcome. Love the insight on the importance of this concept as she touches on temporal discounting, emotional decision making, and importance of accessing our past and future selves to put in the moment events in better perspective.

-Marcus



31 personnes sur 32 ont trouvé cette évaluation pertinente

  • Au global
    1 out of 5 stars
  • Performance
    2 out of 5 stars
  • Histoire
    2 out of 5 stars
  • Nick Reese
  • 2018-09-04

Wasn't For Me

3 hours and it's nothing new if you're familiar with behavioral economics. For a more interesting listen I'd recommend Charles Duhigg's "Smarter Faster Better" which briefly touches on Annie Duke's story while driving home many of the key points of probabilistic thinking better.

52 personnes sur 56 ont trouvé cette évaluation pertinente

  • Au global
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Performance
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Histoire
    5 out of 5 stars
  • J. Veloso
  • 2018-08-21

The functional version of Thinking Fast And Slow

Easily digestible. Immediately applicable. Information was not sacrificed for brevity. Not too long like Kahneman’s book.

8 personnes sur 8 ont trouvé cette évaluation pertinente

  • Au global
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Performance
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Histoire
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Steven
  • 2018-02-22

Want to bet you will enjoy this book.

Would you listen to Thinking in Bets again? Why?

Yes, because I want to hear the many ideas and suggestions by Ms. Duke I missed the first time.

What did you like best about this story?

Ms. Duke takes complex areas of behavior science, decision making processes, and the pursuit of truth and couples those principles of sciences to the methods used by a professional poker player.

What about Annie Duke’s performance did you like?

Calm, upbeat, friendly narration.

Did you have an extreme reaction to this book? Did it make you laugh or cry?

I immediately locked into the theme of the book because of my experience as a professional and an amateur card player.

12 personnes sur 13 ont trouvé cette évaluation pertinente

  • Au global
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Performance
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Histoire
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Adam
  • 2018-08-20

AHHHG this book is so crazy good.

It's narrated by the author who knows what she's talking about, doesn't pull punches, backs up her positions and does it all concisely with excellent examples and detailed discussions about how to analyze potential decisions. It should be required reading for anyone who ever has to decide anything.

5 personnes sur 5 ont trouvé cette évaluation pertinente

  • Au global
    4 out of 5 stars
  • Performance
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Histoire
    4 out of 5 stars
  • H. Miller
  • 2018-08-05

Great book for people looking to challenge the way they think

If you like to convince yourself you're right most of the time, you need this book... And you won't like it.

Great book looking at the ways we delude ourselves into bad decisions, and shows ways you can get better at that. Some good stories and anecdotes, and thoughtful discussion of ways to teach yourself how to make better decisions.

Tied in very well with another book I'm reading on behavioral economics.

Would have liked a few more concrete examples tied into the discussion, but I really enjoyed and thought was valuable. You should read it.

4 personnes sur 4 ont trouvé cette évaluation pertinente

  • Au global
    4 out of 5 stars
  • Performance
    4 out of 5 stars
  • Histoire
    4 out of 5 stars
  • Sahil
  • 2018-08-04

Some food for thought not heard elsewhere

I liked the emphasis on the uncertainty of decision-making (bad outcomes from some good decisions) and the avoidance of resulting (judging decisions as good simply based on the outcome). Also was fun to hear about a poker player's perspective even though I don't play.

3 personnes sur 3 ont trouvé cette évaluation pertinente

  • Au global
    4 out of 5 stars
  • Performance
    4 out of 5 stars
  • Histoire
    4 out of 5 stars
  • Jay
  • 2018-02-20

Very interesting read

Annie has a very interesting perspective on how to make decisions. I enjoyed her insight. It is a good book. What to bet on it?

3 personnes sur 3 ont trouvé cette évaluation pertinente

  • Au global
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Performance
    5 out of 5 stars
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    5 out of 5 stars
  • Martin Rocha
  • 2018-02-19

wonderful book

I really enjoyed this book. it offers a practical view on decision process and summarize multiple bias everybody has.

3 personnes sur 3 ont trouvé cette évaluation pertinente

  • Au global
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Performance
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Histoire
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Soheil
  • 2018-07-04

Required reading for all traders

Of all the books I have read, this book has made the most impact on my trading results. It takes a concept presented by Mark Douglas in Trading in the Zone and crystallizes it. For everyone who seeks certainty in trading and investing, this is a must read.

2 personnes sur 2 ont trouvé cette évaluation pertinente