What do trade wars, tariffs, and extreme weather have in common? They’re not just headlines—they’re actuarial inputs. Michel Léonard joins Alicia Burke and Sara Chen (Actuarial Review) to talk about modeling the unpredictable, why actuaries need to rethink volatility, and how economic risk signals are evolving faster than our frameworks.

What Ancient Climates Teach Us About Modern Risk

In this special minisode of Almost Nowhere, we continue the conversation with Brandon Katz, Executive Vice President at KatRisk, recorded at the 2025 CAS Annual Meeting in Austin, Texas.

Brandon, one of only a handful of insurance professionals with formal training in paleoclimatology, takes us back in time to explore how Earth’s ancient climate history can inform today’s catastrophe modeling and climate risk decisions. We discuss what long-term climate records reveal about variability, extremes, and uncertainty — and why looking millions of years into the past can help actuaries better understand the risks ahead.

A thoughtful add-on to our full episode on climate data and catastrophe modeling, this minisode is perfect for listeners curious about how deep climate science connects to modern insurance practice.

What Actuaries Need to Know (and Avoid) in Cat Modeling

Recorded live at the 2025 CAS Annual Meeting in Austin, Texas, this episode of Almost Nowhere features Brandon Katz, Executive Vice President at KatRisk, in a deep dive on climate data, catastrophe modeling, and the limits of what models can tell us.

Brandon brings a rare perspective to insurance, with formal training in meteorology, climate science, and paleoclimatology, to unpack what we truly know about climate risk — and where uncertainty remains. The conversation explores how climate signals are (and aren’t) incorporated into catastrophe models, which perils have higher versus lower confidence, and how actuaries can responsibly interpret model outputs amid regulatory and stakeholder pressure.