Épisodes

  • How Data, Discipline, and Human Ingenuity Shape Long-Term Wealth, Ep #267

    How Data, Discipline, and Human Ingenuity Shape Long-Term Wealth, Ep #267
    Mar 13 2026
    In a world where gut instinct once ruled the day—from football coaches making pivotal fourth-down decisions to investors choosing their next stock pick—a revolution has reshaped the landscape: reliable data and analytics. Drawing inspiration from the principles behind the film Moneyball and a recent article by David Booth on 3 Lessons from Investing’s Moneyball Moment in Fortune magazine, I break down what a century of US stock market history reveals for everyday investors. Lesson 1. Insiders Aren’t Smarter Than Outsiders One of the key insights unearthed from this century’s worth of data is simple but profound: experts, or “insiders,” don’t consistently outperform the market. Early research using the University of Chicago’s Center for Research on Security Prices (CRSP) data found that, on average, mutual funds and clever stock pickers failed to beat the simple strategy of buying and holding a diversified market portfolio. This led to the explosion of index funds, notably pioneered by Vanguard and enabled by firms like Dimensional. Now, anyone, not just Wall Street professionals, can own broad, low-cost portfolios and harness the long-term growth of the entire market rather than trying (and in most cases, failing) to outsmart it. Lesson 2. Bet on Human Ingenuity Human creativity and progress power the market’s reliable returns over the decades. Companies go public to raise money, which they funnel into improving their products and expanding their reach. Every day, millions of people at thousands of companies are seeking better ways to serve their customers and grow profits. When you invest in the stock market, you’re ultimately betting on people’s ability to innovate and adapt to a changing world. This century-long experiment in collective growth has consistently delivered average returns of around 10% per year, a number that’s survived wars, recessions, inflation spikes, and bubbles. Lesson 3. Investor Behavior Is Key If reams of data tell us anything, it’s this: reliable, long-term returns belong to disciplined investors. The journey is never smooth—market downturns feel chaotic and alarming in the moment. Yet, $1,000 invested in 1926 would have grown to over $17 million by 2025, despite wars, crashes, and global crises. Most investors who stuck with the market over any 10- or 20-year span came out ahead. Stay disciplined, trust the data, and know that while the challenges may look different, the power of long-term, patient investing is timeless. Outline of This Episode [00:00] 100 years of market insights[03:14] Football transformed by data analytics[07:32] Moneyball, markets, and data[11:06] Insiders vs. outsiders on stocks[16:17] Human ingenuity in investing[17:26] Investing discipline drives long-term success Resources Mentioned Moneyball Synopsis 3 lessons from investing’s moneyball moment in Fortune University of Chicago’s Center for Research on Security Prices (CRSP) Connect With Scott Wellens Schedule a discovery call with ScottSend a message to ScottVisit Fortress Planning GroupConnect with Scott on LinkedInFollow Scott on TwitterFortress Planning Group on Facebook Subscribe to Best In Wealth Audio Production and Show Notes by PODCAST FAST TRACK https://www.podcastfasttrack.com Podcast Disclaimer: The Best In Wealth Podcast is hosted by Scott Wellens. Scott Wellens is the principal at Fortress Planning Group. Fortress Planning Group is a registered investment advisory firm regulated by the US Securities and Exchange Commission in accordance and compliance with securities laws and regulations. Fortress Planning Group does not render or offer to render personalized investment or tax advice through the Best In Wealth Podcast. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, investment or legal advice.
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    23 min
  • Are We in an AI Bubble? And What That Means for Investors, Ep #266

    Are We in an AI Bubble? And What That Means for Investors, Ep #266
    Feb 13 2026
    Investors have short memories—until the talk of a “bubble” resurfaces. We take investors on a quick trip down memory lane, discussing the infamous dot-com bubble of the late ‘90s and early 2000s, as well as the housing bubbled that appeared a few years later. These bubbles were fueled by sky-high optimism and wild speculation about transformative technologies. In the dot-com era, investors rushed into any company with a “.com” at the end of its name, confident the internet would change the world. But not all of these companies survived. The lesson is that when a game-changing technology, or a new technology appears, you still have to do your due diligence to come out on top. [bctt tweet="AI stocks are the new #investing gold rush…but are you panning for gold or about to hit a bust? I break down the REAL risks of betting big on #tech giants—and why most #investors miss what matters in a bubble" username="wellensscott"] The Age of AI: Bubble or Breakthrough? The “Magnificent Seven” (Google, Meta/Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla, and Microsoft) are pouring billions into AI. Their 2025 returns, as catalogued by Scott Wellens, were impressive, with the group averaging over 20%, outperforming the S&P 500. Yet, such meteoric rises echo the euphoria of past bubbles. But excitement alone does not make a bubble—overvaluation does. Valuation: How Expensive is Too Expensive? A key measure is the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, a classic way to judge if a company’s stock price is justified by its profits. Take Tesla, for example: at the end of 2025, it traded at roughly $450 per share but earned only $1.50 per share, putting its P/E near 304. Compared to Toyota’s P/E of about 10, that is nosebleed territory. The S&P 500’s long-term average P/E sits around 20—a point of reference emphasizing just how stretched AI-heavy stocks may be. The Magnificent Seven’s average P/E now hovers around 68, more than triple the broader market’s historic average and well above the S&P’s “other 493” companies. While high valuations do not guarantee a crash, they signal that expectations are sky-high and that disappointment could be costly. Picking Winners, Dodging Losers You cannot invest in AI itself; you invest in companies riding the AI wave. History shows many will not make it. That is why betting everything on a few horses is extremely risky, even if their role in AI seems promising today. Over-concentration lurks as a hidden threat. If you own a standard S&P 500 index fund, 35% of your portfolio sits in the Magnificent Seven. For tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq, that figure climbs to 54%. A stumble for these stars—already started in early 2025—can spell big trouble for portfolios tied too closely to their fortunes. [bctt tweet="No one has a crystal ball for the next #AI bubble—but family stewards can stack the odds. I reveal three ways to build #wealth using AI safely—and why a diversified #portfolio is your family’s best hope for lasting wealth" username="wellensscott"] The Case for Global Diversification So how can investors harness AI’s upside without exposing themselves to catastrophic risk? In a portfolio spanning thousands of companies worldwide across different sectors and asset classes, your exposure to the Magnificent Seven (and thus to AI) drops to about 20%. This cushions your wealth from the fallout if today’s leaders falter and gives you a stake in the next wave of winners, wherever they arise.
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    23 min
  • Why Artificial Intelligence Can’t Replace Human Wisdom with Your Finances, Ep #265

    Why Artificial Intelligence Can’t Replace Human Wisdom with Your Finances, Ep #265
    Jan 16 2026
    AI is everywhere, from investing apps and portfolio tools to recipe planners and vacation organizers, artificial intelligence touches countless corners of our lives. In finance, AI promises accessibility. For newer investors, it is a way to learn basic concepts, compare traditional and Roth IRAs, or understand the difference between tax brackets, all delivered in plain English. AI is also a huge help with organization and financial efficiency. Need a budgeting framework or quick ways to categorize cash flow? AI can create those. It is a handy pocket assistant that helps you plan and ask sharper questions when evaluating financial advisors or planning your future. The Real Limitations of AI in Financial Planning While AI is a powerful tool, it is not a decision maker. Here are the big dangers and drawbacks you need to keep in mind: 1. Zero Personal Accountability AI does not bear the consequences of its advice. If it suggests an irreversible move, like a Roth IRA conversion, based on incomplete or incorrect information, the cost falls entirely on you. 2. Overconfidence in Precision AI delivers advice with absolute confidence, even when it is wrong! Financial planning is not just numbers, it is trade-offs, nuances, and judgment calls that factor in health, family dynamics, and personal emotional risk tolerance. 3. Struggles with Multi-Year Tax Planning Most AI tools treat tax decisions generically just one year at a time. But real retirement tax planning means looking ahead 10, 15, or 20 years. Missed integration here can cost you tens, or even hundreds, of thousands of dollars over a career or lifetime. 4. One-Dimensional Investment Advice AI assumes perfect discipline and zero life changes, no panic selling, no sudden need for funds. But human emotion, especially during retirement or volatile markets, often drives decisions. 5. False Sense of Security AI’s confident answers may mask underlying complexity. A small financial misstep, repeated or compounded over decades, can grow into a massive problem down the road. 6. Lack of Behavioral Guardrails Emotions play a huge role in retirement and investment decisions. Life throws curveballs—loss, illness, market downturns, and AI cannot reframe your fears or keep you disciplined when things get tough. When Human Wisdom Matters Most Retirement planning is not about finding simple answers, information is cheap, wisdom is not. For complex questions, AI offers basic options, but it cannot weigh the sequence of return risk, or policy changes in real time, like a qualified advisor can. Human advisors coordinate, prioritize, and apply experience to your financial life. They support you through market cycles, health challenges, and family transitions, and recognize when purely rational advice does not capture your real needs. Using AI Wisely My advice is to use AI for learning and organization, not for important, irreversible lifestyle and tax decisions. Always double-check its work, and do not outsource your financial future entirely to algorithms. Technology plus human judgment delivers the best outcomes. AI is a powerful tool, not a complete solution. Outline of This Episode
    • 02:24 Best in Wealth Podcast future plans.
    • 03:57...
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    27 min
  • The Most Important Changes in the One Big Beautiful Bill Explained, Ep #264

    The Most Important Changes in the One Big Beautiful Bill Explained, Ep #264
    Oct 3 2025
    Tax laws may not be flashy, but understanding them can tilt the balance for your family’s finances and peace of mind. I am digging into the details of the much-talked-about “One Big Beautiful Tax Bill”, a huge piece of tax legislation that is set to impact families, retirees, and investors across the country. I break down the most important highlights from the massive 870-page bill, focusing on what really matters for everyday listeners: permanent income tax brackets, bigger standard deductions, expanded SALT limits, and significant new deductions for seniors. Tune in for clear, actionable insights on the changes coming to your taxes, and learn how to make these updates work in your favor. Outline of This Episode
    • [04:27] Tax act extension highlights.
    • [07:22] Inflation adjustment for tax brackets.
    • [10:38] Tax deduction and SALT cap changes.
    • [13:23] Maximize your deductions and minimize taxable income.
    • [18:53] Estate tax and deductions update.
    • [22:08] Permanent deductions and brackets.
    • [23:45] Tax benefits for families.

    Tax Brackets and Standard Deduction: More Certainty, Bigger Benefits One of the most interesting aspects of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) is the permanent extension of the income tax brackets Americans have become accustomed to since the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017. Instead of the cliff that was looming at the end of 2024, current rates (10%, 12%, 22%, 24%, 32%, 35% and 37%) are now here to stay. This certainty means families, investors, and business owners can plan with clarity, knowing that the 10% and 12% brackets will not suddenly vanish. But there’s more: in 2026, the 10% and 12% brackets will receive extra inflation adjustments, leading to a few hundred dollars of potential tax savings. While many American households may not climb out of the 12% bracket, those who do will benefit even more. Another major win is the increase in the standard deduction, now $31,500 for married couples filing jointly and $15,750 for single filers, starting in 2025. Add in automatic inflation adjustments, and the vast majority of taxpayers are now better off taking the standard deduction rather than itemizing, unless big deductions, like SALT, tilt the scale. The Expanded SALT Deduction Under OBBB, the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction cap explodes from $10,000 to $40,000, restoring much of the pre-2017 advantage. For married couples with large property and state income taxes, this unlocks greater ability to itemize rather than default to the standard deduction. But this expanded cap begins phasing out for adjusted gross incomes above $500,000 and is gone by $600,000. Smart, ongoing tax planning, tracking income, maximizing deductions, and timing bonuses or retirement contributions can make the difference between using the full deduction or losing out. Enhanced Deductions for Those 65+ For retirees, the bill introduces a temporary enhanced standard deduction: if you are over 65, you can deduct an additional $6,000...
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    25 min
  • Balancing US and International Stocks to Diversify Your Investments, Ep #263

    Balancing US and International Stocks to Diversify Your Investments, Ep #263
    Sep 19 2025
    Most investors have been ignoring international stocks lately because the US market has been performing so well—but that strategy might backfire this year, with international markets significantly outpacing American stocks. In this episode, I dive into why diversifying globally is not just smart investing; it is essential for long-term wealth building. We explore how the US currently dominates 61% of world market capitalization, but history shows this was not always the case—and it will not necessarily continue. I share four key reasons international investing should be part of your portfolio: it reduces geographic risk when any one country hits turbulence, gives you access to high-growth emerging markets that have delivered spectacular returns, protects you through currency diversification, and helps overcome the natural tendency to only invest in familiar companies. The numbers tell a compelling story—while the S&P 500 is up around 12% this year, international developed markets are up nearly 30%, and some individual countries have delivered returns of 50-90% in recent years. Whether you are completely US-focused or wondering how much international exposure makes sense for your situation, this episode provides the data and reasoning you need to build a more resilient, globally diversified portfolio. I also touch on an interesting parallel between portfolio diversification and gut health—turns out both benefit from variety and balance. Outline of This Episode
    • [01:12] The importance of the gut microbiome for health.
    • [03:42] International markets surpass US performance right now.
    • [06:24] International diversification mitigates geographic risk.
    • [10:25] A globally diversified portfolio balances volatility and gives opportunity for growth.
    • [13:49] Invest internationally to protect against domestic currency depreciation.
    • [15:13] Why to overcome a behavioral home country bias.
    • [17:06] Review your health and financial diversification.

    Building a healthier, more resilient investment portfolio. Broadening your approach—whether it is what you eat or where you invest—can improve your long-term outcomes. Did you know that we all have an ecosystem of microbes living within our intestines? Science increasingly shows that a highly diverse gut microbiome is linked to better health, well-being, and more healthy years well into old age. A thriving gut health requires at least 30 different types of plant-based foods each week. The greater the diversity, the more kinds of helpful bacteria can flourish, supporting everything from digestion to immunity. Just as variety improves gut health, diversity is equally essential in investing. Many Americans have opted to remove international stocks from their portfolios, citing the recent dominance of U.S. markets. I want to push back on this trend, with these important points:
    • The Shifting Sands of Market Dominance:

    As of early 2024, U.S. markets make up approximately 61% of the world’s capitalization. The next-largest market, Japan, accounts for only
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    19 min
  • The Secret to Stress-Free Investing, Ep #262

    The Secret to Stress-Free Investing, Ep #262
    Aug 22 2025
    We all have some worries, those everyday anxieties that creep into our lives—money, kids, jobs, and adding more stress to your life in the form of an investment portfolio can seem like too much at times. So this week, I am sharing how understanding one key financial theory can transform your approach to investing and seriously lower your stress. This episode takes you through the groundbreaking work of Eugene Fama and the efficient market hypothesis, explaining why trying to outguess the market is usually a losing game. I am also sharing how, by trusting the power of the market and building your strategy around solid, evidence-based principles, you can ditch investing anxiety and set your family up for long-term success. So if market swings keep you up at night or you are looking for a more peaceful way to manage your portfolio, tune in for a fresh perspective and actionable advice on taking the stress out of investing—once and for all. Outline of This Episode
    • [00:00] Your foundation of knowledge to experience stress-free investing.
    • [05:58] Understanding Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH).
    • [09:40] The power of market consensus.
    • [11:55] How fast does the stock market react?
    • [13:12] Efficient market hypothesis simplified.
    • [17:27] The myth of market-beating funds.
    • [19:22] Reduce investment stress by demystifying the market.

    Does Investing Have to Be One More Worry? Retirement account fluctuations, big market drops like those in 2008, COVID-19, and trade war-related selloffs are enough to send anyone’s blood pressure soaring. One of the most important concepts in modern finance: the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), developed by Nobel laureate Eugene Fama. In simple terms, the EMH says that all the available information about any publicly traded company is already reflected in its stock price. Let’s use Apple as an example. Every day, millions of shares, worth billions of dollars, change hands, each trade representing someone who thinks Apple is fairly priced, and someone else who disagrees. Crucially, both buyers and sellers have access to the same information. No one has a crystal ball; everyone’s predictions about future sales and profits are just that—educated guesses. Why Beating the Market Is So Hard In a 20-year analysis of actively managed mutual funds, those run by managers trying to beat the market through skillful stock picking. Of the 1,667 funds analyzed on January 1, 2004, just 48% were still around 20 years later (the rest closed or merged after poor performance). Of those survivors, only 16% managed to outperform the market—a sliver of winners, and no guarantee that their outperformance was due to skill rather than luck. Over longer periods, the odds get even worse. The market’s efficiency means that news, good or bad, gets priced in fast. By the time you read about a hot tip or see a...
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    21 min
  • The Truth About Bitcoin, Gold, and Safe Investing Strategies, Ep #261

    The Truth About Bitcoin, Gold, and Safe Investing Strategies, Ep #261
    Jul 18 2025
    Bitcoin and gold are two assets often hailed as safe havens and reliable stores of value. I explore whether bitcoin and gold really deliver the security investors hope for, or if, instead, they are more about speculation than true investment. I am helping you to look at the hard data and science behind financial decisions. Whether you are curious about market volatility or searching for a dependable way to safeguard your wealth, this episode is packed with practical insights about the pros and cons of investing in Bitcoin or gold. Outline of This Episode
    • [06:05] Bitcoin and gold are speculative, limited by supply and demand.
    • [09:29] Bitcoin is an unreliable store of value.
    • [13:57] Volatility and diversification in investing.
    • [16:58] Is gold really a safe haven for your money?
    • [20:18] Gold commercials push for sales due to high commissions, not safety.
    • [22:30] Investing relies on data and science to build successful portfolios, focusing on controlling taxes, expenses, and risk.

    Finding Safe Havens for Your Money What makes you feel secure? Fresh from a nine-night family trip to a volleyball tournament in Dallas, I have realized that my real safe haven is not a lockbox or a password, it is my home and the daily routine I return to. More than that, my family represents my ultimate store of value, the core “asset” I am committed to nurturing year after year. For me, investing is just one facet of a broader stewardship, protecting not only wealth but also the relationships and routines that bring lasting fulfillment. Bitcoin is a Volatile Gamble Clients often ask me, “Can Bitcoin act as a reliable store of value?” so I’ve dug into the numbers. Since 2010, the annualized volatility of Bitcoin has been a staggering 76.9%, nearly five times greater than the already-risky Russell 3000 index, which clocks in at 15.8%. Over the same period, Bitcoin has endured 27 separate 10% drops, 10 plunges of 30% or more, and five catastrophic 70% crashes. By contrast, the mainstream US stock market has only seen six 10% drops and a single 30% drawdown. Investing in bitcoin with this type of volatility is not a store of value. Investing in Bitcoin is speculation. The wild swings may excite thrill-seekers, but anyone seeking stability is likely to be disappointed. Gold as a Safe Haven What about gold, the classic safe-haven asset? Gold has enjoyed some positive years, up 60% of the time since 1970, but it is hardly a guarantee. That means in roughly four out of every ten years, gold investors have faced losses. Meanwhile, the S&P 500, ironically, the very market from which gold investors typically flee, has delivered positive returns 80% of those years. Plus, the marketing of gold is driven by high-commission sales tactics, not genuine concern for investor safety. Beware of those “buy gold now” ads; they exist to line the pockets of sellers, not to deliver real security to buyers. The Science of Investment Security Rather...
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    25 min
  • Common Retirement Myths You Shouldn’t Fall For, Ep #260

    Common Retirement Myths You Shouldn’t Fall For, Ep #260
    Jun 13 2025
    Let’s unpack six of the top retirement misconceptions, from whether it is okay to splurge in retirement, to the necessity of paying off your mortgage before you retire, and the real risks that retirees face beyond just a stock market crash. With a focus on helping family stewards make smart decisions for a secure financial future, I share practical advice, real-life scenarios, and encouragement to help you confidently prepare for and enjoy your retirement years. If you want to separate fact from fiction and build a retirement plan that truly fits your life and goals, then this episode is for you. Outline of This Episode
    • [04:45] Debunking common myths.
    • [09:43] Donate now for tax benefits and immediate impact.
    • [10:54] Spending in retirement is encouraged to enjoy life and create memories, rather than hoarding savings.
    • [17:34] Diversified portfolios mitigate financial risk during market downturns.
    • [20:12] Stay vigilant against fraud by protecting your personal information.

    How Rethinking Retirement Myths Can Help You Build Wealth, Live Generously, and Enjoy a Fulfilling Retirement Retirement is often framed as the finish line in your financial journey, but the path leading up to and through that milestone is cluttered with well-intentioned advice, social media sound bites, and downright misleading myths. As Scott Wellens, certified financial planner and host of the Best in Wealth podcast, points out in episode 260, it’s time for successful family stewards to challenge conventional wisdom and make decisions grounded in reality, not rumors. Let’s unpack and expand on six of the most common retirement myths, using Scott’s insights to guide your way toward a smarter, more satisfying retirement. Myth #1: “It’s Not Okay To Do a Big Splurge” Many savers believe that a single splurge in retirement, a long-awaited RV, a dream vacation, or a lavish family gathering, could derail their entire retirement plan. If you’ve saved diligently and want to use a portion for a one-time purchase, the impact on your annual withdrawal can be minimal. For those following the “4% rule," buying a $50,000 RV from a $3 million portfolio reduces sustainable annual withdrawals by only about $2,000, a small sacrifice for a lifelong dream. Retirement is about enjoying the fruits of your labor. With proper planning and a clear understanding of your cash flows, strategic splurges are not only possible but can enrich your retirement experience. Myth #2: “It’s Best to Leave Money to Charity After Death” It’s noble to want to support causes after you are gone, but waiting to give can rob you of witnessing the impact your generosity brings. Giving while alive has both tangible and intangible benefits: not only do you receive immediate tax deductions and may reduce potential estate taxes, but you also get a front-row seat to the good your money is doing. A thoughtful plan lets you balance living well and giving generously today, maximizing both legacy and personal fulfillment. Myth #3: “You Should Spend Less in...
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    24 min