Cattle Futures Stampede: Volatility Reigns as Prices Dip and Weights Rise
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This is your Daily Live Cattle Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.
Hello and welcome back to the Daily Live Cattle Price Tracker. I am Vanessa Clark, here to bring you the most up-to-date information and trends surrounding the live cattle market, as well as practical insights you can use, whether you are a producer, trader, or simply interested in agricultural commodities.
Let’s dive right into today’s numbers. As of early evening, December twenty twenty-five live cattle contracts were trading at around two hundred twenty-three ninety per hundredweight. That is actually up about two dollars and a quarter from the previous day’s close. Nearby contracts like February and April are trading in a similar range, just above or below two hundred twenty-four. Now if we look at cash trade, transactions have been reported in the two hundred thirty-five dollar range this week, which is down from the higher levels seen last month. According to recent USDA and market reports, cattle in the north traded around two hundred thirty live, which is about eight dollars lower than bulk prices the previous week. In Texas and Kansas, we saw sales mostly at two hundred thirty-five to two hundred thirty-six, which was still considered relatively light volume for the week.
Taking a step back, why are we seeing this volatility? Several factors are in play. Technical selling pressure has driven futures lower, hitting recent three and a half month lows earlier in the week. Prices were limit-down recently, meaning they fell as fast as exchange rules allowed before trading was paused, reflecting heavy selling from funds and uncertainty in the wider economy. Market analysts point to technical patterns suggesting there could still be more downside near-term before a potential rebound, particularly if uncertainty about border openings or federal policy continues. Packers are using this pressure to their advantage, bidding lower for cattle and putting further strain on prices.
Another important factor to watch is supply. Cattle slaughter numbers are running below this time last year. We are still in a tight supply situation, which should, in theory, support prices. However, heavy weights coming out of feedlots, with carcass weights up to one pound higher than last week and over twenty pounds higher than a year ago, are adding a bit more beef to the market at a time when demand is holding steady but not exploding. The overall trend now is that producers and traders are becoming more accepting of a softer trend after the extended bull market seen over the last year or two.
If you are thinking ahead or making decisions for your own farm or business, here are some takeaways. First, keep an eye on nearby futures prices as they remain volatile. If beef demand strengthens as we head toward the holidays, especially for prime cuts, that could help prices stabilize or rebound. Second, pay attention to regional cash trades and grading reports for the best sense of local competition and supply flow, since cash and futures are not always perfectly aligned. Third, remember that forward contracts and grids are increasingly important marketing tools, as formula sales continue to give ground to negotiated trades.
That wraps up today’s Daily Live Cattle Price Tracker. Thank you so much for joining me. If you find these updates helpful, please subscribe, share with your friends, and tune in next time for more fresh insight into the live cattle markets. Until then, I am Vanessa Clark wishing you a productive and profitable day.
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