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Cocoa Correction: Surplus Sweetens Prices as Holidays Loom

Cocoa Correction: Surplus Sweetens Prices as Holidays Loom

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 https://www.instagram.com/vanessaclarkipaiThis is your Daily Cocoa Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.Welcome back to Daily Cocoa Price Tracker, the podcast that brings you all the latest cocoa market updates and industry news. I’m Vanessa Clark, and today is Tuesday, November eleventh, two thousand twenty-five. Whether you are trading cocoa, managing a business, or just curious about what’s driving chocolate prices, I’m here to break down the numbers and trends you need to know in a way that is clear and approachable.Let’s kick things off with the headline that everyone wants: the current trading price for cocoa. As of this morning, cocoa futures are trading around six thousand dollars per tonne. This marks a noticeable drop from recent weeks, as prices were hovering above sixty-one hundred just a few days ago. According to commodity analysts, this latest dip puts cocoa at its lowest level since mid-October, reflecting a four percent drop overnight. Some traders are even seeing cocoa retreat further toward fifty-eight hundred dollars as markets respond to the latest supply outlook.So, what’s behind this correction? The main story is the optimism around this season’s cocoa crop in West Africa. Reports from the region suggest that weather conditions have been mostly favorable, with dry days helping harvested cocoa beans dry more efficiently. Ivory Coast and Ghana, the two largest cocoa producers in the world, are both seeing good pod development, and early indications point to a healthy main harvest. This is a big shift from last season’s weather woes and supply worries.Another major influence right now comes from the demand side. Chocolate manufacturers such as Hershey have reported disappointing chocolate sales during key seasons like Halloween. European cocoa processing—the grindings that reflect how much cocoa is being manufactured and turned into chocolate—fell to its lowest third-quarter level in ten years. In Asia, grindings were down seventeen percent, signaling weaker confectionery demand in major markets. Even in North America, with some reporting quirks, chocolate candy sales volume dropped over twenty-one percent in the last quarter compared to last year.Still, supply isn’t without its own challenges. According to the International Cocoa Organization, last year saw a historic global cocoa deficit as production struggled to meet demand. However, this year is different. Forecasters are estimating a cocoa surplus for the first time in four years, which is contributing to softer prices.Elsewhere in the world, cocoa prices also continue to reflect regional trends. In Europe, the average price for cocoa in October was nearly nine dollars and eighty cents per kilogram, which was up about seven percent from the previous month. This uptick was mostly driven by rising demand for chocolate and baked goods heading into the holiday season, as well as higher import and energy costs. In South America, prices climbed just over three percent, averaging slightly over nine dollars per kilogram, supported by strong international demand and shifts in currency value. Southeast Asia saw more muted movement, with prices rising less than half a percent, as higher production and good harvests kept things steady.Looking ahead, a big story to watch is the inclusion of cocoa in the Bloomberg Commodity Index starting in January. This could attract more investment money into cocoa futures, adding a new dimension to how the market reacts to both supply and demand news. According to market research firms, funds may have to buy nearly one point nine billion dollars’ worth of cocoa futures to match the new benchmark, so that’s a headline to keep an eye on as we move toward the end of the year.Before we wrap up, here are some practical takeaways for today. If you are involved in chocolate manufacturing or buying cocoa for your business, the recent price drop could offer a timely opportunity to secure supply at lower rates. However, keep a close watch on the weather in West Africa and holiday demand in major markets, both of which could swing prices in the weeks to come. For traders and investors, volatility could remain high as the market digests harvest reports and new flows from index funds.Thanks for listening to the Daily Cocoa Price Tracker with me, Vanessa Clark. If you found today’s update helpful, be sure to subscribe, share the podcast with a friend, and tune in next time for the latest cocoa price news and tips. Take care, and have a chocolatey day.For more http://www.quietplease.aiCheck out Vanessa on Instagram https://www.instagram.com/vanessaclarkipaiFor some deals, check out https://amzn.to/4hSgB4rThis content was created in partnership and with the help of Artificial Intelligence AI
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