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Cocoa Crunch: Supply Surges, Demand Dips, Prices Plummet

Cocoa Crunch: Supply Surges, Demand Dips, Prices Plummet

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This is your Daily Cocoa Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.

Hey everyone, welcome back to the Daily Cocoa Price Tracker. I'm Vanessa Clark, and boy do we have some exciting developments to talk about today. If you've been following the cocoa market, you know it's been quite the roller coaster, and today's episode is going to break down exactly what's happening with prices and what it means for all of you listening.

Let's dive right into the current numbers. As of today, November 12th, cocoa is trading at approximately five thousand nine hundred and fourteen dollars per metric ton. Now that might sound like a lot, but here's the thing that's really important to understand. Over the past year, cocoa prices have actually dropped about thirty percent. Just a few months ago in December of last year, cocoa hit an all-time high of nearly thirteen thousand dollars per ton. So we've seen a pretty dramatic correction in the market.

But here's what's fascinating about today specifically. Yesterday, cocoa prices took a sharp dive, falling more than four percent. Both New York and London cocoa contracts hit multi-week lows. The reason? Traders are getting increasingly optimistic about cocoa supply. Farmers in Ivory Coast, which is the world's largest cocoa producer, are reporting that their crops are looking really healthy. Ghana is also showing strong development in their cocoa pods. We're talking about West African cocoa pod counts that are seven percent above the five-year average. That's huge for supply.

There's another factor pushing prices down too. Arrivals at Ivory Coast ports have been really strong, with over one hundred seven thousand tonnes arriving in just one week. That's up twenty percent compared to the same week last year. Plus, there's buzz about a potential delay to EU deforestation rules, which is also adding to market optimism.

Now here's the challenge though. Even though supply is looking better, global chocolate demand has been pretty weak. North American chocolate sales dropped twenty-one percent year over year recently. Asian cocoa grindings fell seventeen percent, hitting a nine-year low. So we have this interesting dynamic where supplies are coming in strong but demand is lagging.

Looking ahead, the International Cocoa Organization is actually projecting that the global cocoa market will move into surplus through the twenty twenty-five twenty twenty-six season. That's a big deal because for years we've been dealing with supply concerns. But Nigeria, which is the fifth-largest cocoa producer, is expecting their production to drop eleven percent next season, so not everything is rosy.

The bottom line for you is this. Cocoa prices are under downward pressure right now thanks to improving supply prospects and weak demand. The market is more balanced than it's been in years, and that could mean more stable pricing ahead. If you're involved in the chocolate industry or trading cocoa, this is a time to really pay attention to those West African harvest reports.

Thanks so much for tuning in to the Daily Cocoa Price Tracker. I'm Vanessa Clark. Make sure to subscribe and join me tomorrow for the latest updates on cocoa prices and market movements. We'll keep you informed every single day.

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This content was created in partnership and with the help of Artificial Intelligence AI
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