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Cocoa Surplus on the Horizon: Will Chocolate Prices Melt Away?

Cocoa Surplus on the Horizon: Will Chocolate Prices Melt Away?

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This is your Daily Cocoa Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.

Hello and welcome to the Daily Cocoa Price Tracker. I’m Vanessa Clark, and as always, I’m here to keep you updated on the latest cocoa market news, price trends, and what it all means—whether you are in the chocolate business, a curious investor, or just a dedicated fan of your daily dose of chocolate.

Let’s dive right into the numbers. As of November sixth, twenty twenty-five, the current trading price for cocoa is around six thousand two hundred sixty-eight dollars per metric ton, according to Trading Economics. That’s a slight drop of about two percent from yesterday, but if you look at the bigger picture, cocoa prices have remained above six thousand dollars per ton recently, even peaking at sixty-four ninety late last week, the highest since early October. There’s definitely been a lot of movement after last year’s wild record highs.

You might be wondering what’s driving cocoa prices right now. The main story is all about supply, especially from West Africa, which produces about seventy percent of the world’s cocoa. Farmers in Ivory Coast and Ghana are reporting a better outlook for this year’s harvest. They’ve seen good rainfall combined with sunny spells, and that’s supporting high expectations for a healthy harvest from October through March. All this optimism over the West African main-crop harvest has shifted the market’s mood significantly.

In fact, global cocoa production for the current twenty twenty-four to twenty twenty-five season is expected to be up by about seven point eight percent compared to last year. The International Cocoa Organization forecasts a possible surplus of one hundred forty-two thousand metric tons—marking the first global surplus after several years of deficits. That means more cocoa beans entering the market, which usually translates to lower prices.

But keep in mind, things are always in flux. Even with better harvests predicted, other regions like Nigeria are actually expecting their output to drop by around eleven percent this coming season. So local shortages can create ripples.

The demand side has also been interesting lately. Global chocolate sales have lagged, especially with higher prices making their way to the shelves. Weak demand out of Asia and Europe, partly due to those high retail chocolate prices and changing consumer tastes, has added some downward pressure on cocoa prices. U S chocolate sales were even reportedly disappointing this Halloween, which is a big deal because that’s a huge holiday for candy makers.

Looking ahead, analysts expect cocoa prices to trend a bit lower if West African crops deliver as hoped. Trading Economics estimates prices might fall below six thousand dollars per ton by year-end and continue to drift down if the expected surplus materializes. However, keep an eye on the weather in Ivory Coast and Ghana or any disruptions to the supply chain—either could send prices right back up again.

For chocolate makers and anyone sourcing cocoa, this might be a good window to lock in supply while prices are off their highs but before even bigger shifts appear in the market. If you are a consumer—well, you might see chocolate prices stabilize in the months ahead, especially if this surplus holds up, but manufacturers may be slow to pass on those savings, so keep your eyes open for those deals.

That’s your cocoa market update for today. My name is Vanessa Clark, and you’ve been listening to the Daily Cocoa Price Tracker. If you found today’s episode helpful, be sure to subscribe and tune in next time for more updates, trends, and simple explanations behind the complex world of cocoa. Thanks for joining me, and may your day be just a little bit sweeter.

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This content was created in partnership and with the help of Artificial Intelligence AI
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