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Corn Confidential: Exports, Brazil, and the Bull Run

Corn Confidential: Exports, Brazil, and the Bull Run

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This is your Daily Corn Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.

Hey everyone, welcome back to Daily Corn Price Tracker. I'm Vanessa Clark, and I'm so glad you're here with me today. We've got some really interesting movement to break down in the corn market as we head into December.

So let's jump right in. As of today, December second, corn is trading at four dollars and thirty-seven cents per bushel, up nearly a full cent from yesterday. That's solid movement in the right direction for corn traders. The March contract specifically is holding around four dollars and forty-eight cents, which represents some real strength we're seeing emerge.

Now here's what's driving today's action. Export inspections came in above expectations this week. We saw one point four two one million metric tons of corn inspected for export, which beat what traders were predicting. That's a big deal because it signals strong international demand for American corn. In fact, the cumulative corn export numbers for this marketing year are running seventy-one percent ahead of where we were at this time last year. Japan, Mexico, and Colombia are leading the charge as our top export destinations right now.

But here's something important to understand. While year to date corn is still down about five point three percent, we've definitely seen a turnaround in momentum. The market had given back part of last week's rally on Monday, but today's strength suggests that confidence is returning. Some analysts are looking at corn with very bullish eyes. One forecast model I saw put corn at a ninety-one percent probability of higher prices moving forward, with March corn potentially reaching four dollars and sixty-seven cents.

Now, I want to give you the real picture here. Brazil has cut its corn production forecast significantly. StoneX lowered their estimate to one hundred thirty-four point four million metric tons, citing planting delays and irregular rainfall. That's the kind of supply tightness that can support prices. Ukrainian exports are also continuing at a strong pace as harvesting moves along there.

The cash market for corn is sitting around four dollars and four cents per bushel right now, which shows decent strength compared to where we started the week. The gulf basis is improving, which is positive for exporters and farmers in that region.

One more thing worth watching. There's some chatter in the market about the USDA potentially lowering the corn yield estimate come January. If that happens, we could see some real support for prices, though the market might also price in lower demand for things like ethanol and livestock feed.

So bottom line for today? Corn is showing resilience with export demand holding steady and supply concerns building internationally. Traders are watching that March contract closely, and today's push higher suggests the bulls are gaining confidence as we move into the heart of the winter months.

Thanks so much for tuning in to Daily Corn Price Tracker. Make sure you subscribe so you don't miss our next episode, and we'll be right back tomorrow with the latest on what's moving the corn market. See you then.

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