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Cotton Equilibrium: Navigating the Calm Before the Storm

Cotton Equilibrium: Navigating the Calm Before the Storm

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This is your Daily Cotton Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.

Welcome to the Daily Cotton Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark. I'm your host, and I'm so glad you're tuning in today, December first, twenty twenty five. Today we're diving into what's happening in the cotton market right now and what it could mean for you.

Let's start with the numbers, because they tell quite a story. Cotton futures opened December trading with some significant losses. We're seeing prices down between twenty five to thirty five points to kick off the month. December contracts closed at sixty two point ninety one cents per pound, March contracts settled at sixty four point seventy one cents, and May contracts finished at sixty five point ninety two cents per pound. Now, I know those numbers might seem like just numbers on a screen, but here's what's really important. The market is showing us that despite last week's gains of one hundred fifty six points for December, traders are taking profits and reassessing their positions as we head into the winter months.

What's driving this movement? The USDA just updated their export sales report, and here's where it gets interesting. Cotton sales for the week of October sixteenth hit one hundred seventy five thousand six hundred seventy eight bales, which is up eleven point four five percent from the week before. Even better, shipments reached one hundred fifty nine thousand six hundred thirty one bales, making it the largest shipment volume we've seen all marketing year. That should be bullish for cotton, and it was on Friday, but traders are looking ahead and wondering what comes next.

The bigger picture shows us something really important about supply and demand. According to the latest analysis, the twenty twenty five to twenty twenty six cotton season is characterized by a tight supply demand balance. Global production did increase, but so did global inventories. China's cotton production was revised upward to seven point twenty nine million tons, and Brazil's output went up by one hundred eight thousand tons. These supply increases are putting downward pressure on prices, even as demand remains steady.

Here's what's fascinating though. In China, domestic cotton prices are actually rising. Mill demand is strengthening, and quality driven purchasing is pushing prices up across key grades. The three thousand one hundred twenty eight B grade is trading around fourteen thousand nine hundred thirty six yuan per ton, reflecting solid mill activity. This suggests that while global prices are facing headwinds, regional strength in key consuming areas could provide some support.

Looking at the inventory side, the picture is balanced. Spinning mills are holding about thirty days of raw material inventory, and certified cotton stocks on the ICE are steady at twenty thousand three hundred forty four bales. This means supplies are available, but they're not overflowing.

So what does this mean for you listening today? If you're involved in cotton trading or production, watch for the next USDA export sales report coming out this morning for the week ending October twenty third. That data will be crucial. Also keep an eye on Chinese mill activity. If that demand continues to strengthen, it could provide a floor for prices even as global supplies increase.

The cotton market is definitely in a holding pattern right now, but the underlying fundamentals suggest we're in a period of equilibrium. Neither extreme weakness nor explosive rallies seem likely in the near term, but opportunity often hides in these quiet markets.

Thank you so much for tuning into the Daily Cotton Price Tracker with me, Vanessa Clark. Make sure you subscribe and tune in next time for more insights into what's moving the cotton market. Take care, and I'll see you tomorrow.

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