Three edges for December 10 — Man City Over 1.5 team total, PSG moneyline, and BTTS Yes in Arsenal–Brugge — all built on defensive absences, elite attacking repetition, and chaotic match environments.

⚽ Manchester City Team Total Over 1.5 (–125) — at Real Madrid

Bernabéu magic can’t tape ankles. Madrid’s back line is stretched thin:

• A midfielder at right-back

• A rookie CB staring down Haaland

• A makeshift buildup under City’s press

That’s like defending a freight train with traffic cones.

City’s chance volume is repeatable, sustainable, and whistle-friendly — one clumsy box tackle and you’re halfway to two goals already.

This is the most repeatable edge on the entire board.

⚽ Paris Saint-Germain (–147) — at Athletic Club

Athletic show up with a center-back shortage, a wet pitch, and a high-pressure environment that favors PSG’s pace, not their structure. It’s a slip-n-slide stress test against the fastest front line in Europe. Ref Siebert hands out cards like tapas, punishing late, desperate defending and gifting PSG dangerous restarts.

This profiles as PSG cardio, not a cage fight.

When the dam’s missing bricks, you don’t bet on the sandbags — you bet on the flood.

⚽ Both Teams to Score: YES (–117) — Arsenal at Club Brugge

Arsenal arrive without their defensive spine:

• Saliba OUT

• Gabriel OUT

• Declan Rice OUT

Brugge counter with:

• A third-string goalkeeper

• A new-manager bounce

• Rain + wind turning routine saves into spills

Set pieces and transition lanes will be open like a late-night kebab shop. Even if Arsenal control phases, they leak one. Even if Brugge wobble defensively, they concede one.

BTTS here isn’t brave — it’s basic arithmetic.

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