Three edges define December 11 — Aston Villa ML, Bijan Robinson Over 36.5 receiving yards, and Celtics -7.5 — each built on structural mismatches, target funnels, and depth advantages.

⚽ Aston Villa ML (–150) — vs Basel

Villa’s profile screams professional European road win:

• High pass accuracy

• Sustained possession

• Disciplined pressing

• A back line that travels

Basel’s “fortress” has been built on beating mid-table opposition; when they face organized defensive blocks, the leaks show. Basel likely needs to chase points to stay alive — textbook fuel for Villa’s transition efficiency.

Think Swiss cheese defense… but with extra holes and fewer crackers.

Villa handle business.

🏈 Bijan Robinson Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (–110)

Short week = simpler scripts and faster throws.

With Drake London out/limited, Atlanta’s target tree naturally funnels toward:

• RBs

• TEs

• Flats + option routes

Tampa’s zone concedes RB receiving and is bottom-tier in defending backs in space. Add negative game script + blitz avoidance = 6–8 looks for Bijan with serious YAC upside.

We’re not betting hero balls; we’re betting screens with receipts.

Profitable — like couponing at a steakhouse.

🏀 Celtics -7.5 — at Bucks

The line still pays a name-brand tax to Milwaukee.

The truth:

• Their star power is muted

• The rotation thins instantly

• Boston owns the turnover edge

• Boston owns the rebounding edge

• Boston owns the arc

Once the Bucks’ pull-up diet goes cold, the game snowballs. Boston’s depth turns third quarters into moving walkways — you move, they move faster.

Wisconsin translation: Celtics by a dairy aisle.

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