Three edges for December 12 — Real Sociedad ML, Pistons -7, and Timberwolves +3.5 — driven by underlying shot quality, defensive intent, and market inflation.

⚽ Real Sociedad (–130) — Girona FC at Real Sociedad

Sociedad’s record is lying to you like a “lightly used” couch on Craigslist. The underlying profile is strong:

• 186 shots for (top-5 range)

• 154 shots allowed

• Clean territorial control

Girona’s numbers tell the opposite story:

• 245 opponent shots allowed

• 29 goals conceded

• Injuries + “everything’s fine” chaos

That’s not a defense — it’s a suggestion.

At home in San Sebastián, Sociedad should be the adult in the room, controlling tempo and territory. We buy process, not vibes.

🏀 Detroit Pistons -7 (–110) — Hawks at Pistons

Detroit’s defense is a problem on purpose (≈111.9 DRtg), and they’re 19–5 because they turn games into homework.

Atlanta arrives without Trae Young, and Porziņģis likely out (illness), stripping the offense of its steering wheel and its spare tire. This is the third meeting in under a month, and Detroit already owns two wins in the series.

If the Hawks keep this close, it’ll be because the rims send a handwritten apology. Pistons grind, separate, and cover.

🏀 Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5 (–110) — at Warriors

Yes, Steph is expected back — and yes, the market charged a “Steph headline” fee. But the Warriors are still short-handed:

• Draymond OUT

• Horford likely OUT

• First-game-back legs often run on Wi-Fi

Minnesota can win the possession war with size and boards (Gobert / Randle / Reid), dragging this into a half-court mud fight where +3.5 shines.

Note:

• If Edwards IN → we love it

• If Edwards OUT → still playable, just less spicy

Either way, the number is doing the work.

Three games. Three edges.

One principle: buy structure, sell headlines.

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