Three edges for December 13 — an EPL total built on control, a service-academy spread rooted in efficiency, and an NBA favorite with separation baked in.

⚽ Under 3.5 Goals (–135) — Wolves at Arsenal

Arsenal’s identity is clean sheets: 9 goals allowed in 15 matches. Wolves’ identity is… less defined (–25 goal differential, bottom of the table). With a patched back line, Arteta’s likely to lean possession as defense — do the job, don’t invite chaos.

Our model prices Under 3.5 at ~62% (about an 8% edge vs market). This doesn’t need fireworks — it needs control. Think museum tour: lots of looking, no touching. 2–0 or 3–0 covers the script.

🏈 Navy -6.5 (–105) - Army at Navy

This isn’t your granddad’s option offense. Navy is averaging 32.5 PPG, leads the nation in rushing (298.4 YPG), and QB Blake Horvath’s 10.7 YPA freezes safeties who dare peek.

Army can’t chase (last in passing yards) and struggles to get off the field, while Navy converts nearly 50% on third down. Under the key number of 7, this shifts from rock fight to separation. Call it 31–17. Anchors away.

🏀 Thunder -9 (–110) — Spurs vs Thunder (Las Vegas)

OKC has turned the season into a woodchipper: 24–1, +17.5 average margin, #1 defense, and a recent 49-point demolition just to stay warm.

Re-inserting Wembanyama creates short-term spacing and tempo friction, and OKC’s length wins the turnover math early (Q1 Net Rating +20.6). Neutral floor, one-and-done stage, no cruise control. Lay it.