Three edges headline December 14 — two NFL spreads with line value and one NBA total primed for fireworks.

🏈 Rams -6 (–105) — Lions at Rams

Detroit’s secondary is duct tape and wishful thinking (no Branch or Joseph), and now they face the No. 1 EPA offense.

Stafford vs. blitz:

• 132.5 QB rating

• 15 TDs, 0 INTs

McVay’s system isolates backup safeties and attacks open seams. Indoors at SoFi, speed equals punishment.

Model projection: Rams by 10, >60% cover odds.

Blitzing Stafford here is like poking a beehive with a fork — all buzz, no payoff.

🏈 Vikings +5.5 (–109) — Vikings at Cowboys

Dallas is laying points with the 31st-ranked scoring defense and a backup LT (Guyton OUT).

Enter Brian Flores’ defense — No. 2 in blitz rate, elite pressure creation, and a playbook built to compress timing.

Jefferson vs. Dallas’ zone shell = rookie QB’s cheat code.

Cowboys probably win, but it profiles as a one-possession grind.

Classic back-door setup — and we’re holding the door.

🏀 Over 229.5 (–110) — Lakers at Suns

Lakers are an Over machine (17–8 O/U) and last meeting hit 233.

This time:

• Reaves out (defensive downgrade)

• Booker likely back (offensive upgrade)

These two average 233 PPG head-to-head; our projection prints 234.1 with close-game free-throw inflation.

Translation: pack the scoreboard operator a Gatorade.

Three games.

Three clear reads.

One principle: process drives points — or prevents them — by design.

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