We tend to think of tragedies as a single terrible moment, rather than the result of multiple bad decisions. Can this pattern be reversed? We try — with stories about wildfires, school shootings, and love.

• SOURCES:
  • Amy Edmondson, professor of leadership management at Harvard Business School.
  • Helen Fisher, former senior research fellow at The Kinsey Institute and former chief science advisor to Match.com.
  • Ed Galea, founding director of the Fire Safety Engineering Group at the University of Greenwich.
  • Gary Klein, cognitive psychologist and pioneer in the field of naturalistic decision making.
  • David Riedman, founder of the K-12 School Shooting Database.
  • Aaron Stark, head cashier at Lowe's and keynote speaker.
  • John Van Reenen, professor at the London School of Economics.

• RESOURCES:
  • "Ethan Crumbley: Parents of Michigan school gunman sentenced to at least 10 years," by Brandon Drenon (New York Times, 2024).
  • Right Kind of Wrong: The Science of Failing Well, by Amy Edmondson (2023).
  • "How Fire Turned Lahaina Into a Death Trap," by Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs, Serge F. Kovaleski, Shawn Hubler, and Riley Mellen (The New York Times, 2023).
  • The Violence Project: How to Stop a Mass Shooting Epidemic, by Jillian Peterson and James Densley (2021).
  • "I Was Almost A School Shooter," by Aaron Stark (TEDxBoulder, 2018).

• EXTRAS:
  • "Is Perfectionism Ruining Your Life?" by People I (Mostly) Admire (2023).
  • "Why Did You Marry That Person?" by Freakonomics Radio (2022).
  • "What Do We Really Learn From Failure?" by No Stupid Questions (2021).
  • "How to Fail Like a Pro," by Freakonomics Radio (2019).
  • "Failure Is Your Friend," by Freakonomics Radio (2014).

It used to be that making documentary films meant taking a vow of poverty (and obscurity). The streaming revolution changed that. Award-winning filmmaker R.J. Cutler talks to Stephen Dubner about capturing Billie Eilish’s musical genius and Martha Stewart’s vulnerability — and why he really, really, really needs to make a film about the New York Mets.

• SOURCES:
  • R.J. Cutler, filmmaker.

• RESOURCES:
  • Fight for Glory, documentary (2025).
  • Martha, documentary (2024).
  • "Reality Check: The Boom—or Glut—in Streaming Documentaries Has Sparked a Reckoning Among Filmmakers and Their Subjects," by Reeves Wiedeman (Vulture, 2023).
  • "Inside the Documentary Cash Grab," by Mia Galuppo and Katie Kilkenny (The Hollywood Reporter, 2022).
  • Billie Eilish: The World’s a Little Blurry, documentary (2021).

• EXTRAS:
  • “Ari Emanuel Is Never Indifferent,” by Freakonomics Radio (2023).

It’s been in development for five years and has at least a year to go. On the eve of its out-of-town debut, the actor playing Lincoln quit. And the producers still need to raise another $15 million to bring the show to New York. There really is no business like show business. (Part three of a three-part series.)

• SOURCES:
  • Christopher Ashley, artistic director of La Jolla Playhouse.
  • Debby Buchholz, managing director of La Jolla Playhouse.
  • Carmen Cusack, actor.
  • Quentin Earl Darrington, actor.
  • Joe DiPietro, playwright and lyricist.
  • Crystal Monee Hall, composer, singer, actor.
  • Ivan Hernandez, actor.
  • Michael Rushton, professor of arts administration at Indiana University.
  • Jeffrey Seller, Broadway producer.
  • Alan Shorr, Broadway producer.
  • Daniel Watts, writer, choreographer, actor.

• RESOURCES:
  • 3 Summers of Lincoln (2025).
  • "Review: Visceral ‘3 Summers of Lincoln’ is thrilling and thought-provoking," by Pam Kragen (San Diego Union-Tribune, 2025).
  • "What’s Wrong with the Theatre is What’s Wrong With Society," by Michael Rushton (ArtsJournal, 2023).
  • "American Theater Is Imploding Before Our Eyes," by Isaac Butler (New York Times, 2023).
  • The Moral Foundations of Public Funding for the Arts, by Michael Rushton (2023).

• EXTRAS:
  • “How to Make the Coolest Show on Broadway,” by Freakonomics Radio (2024).
  • “You Can Make a Killing, but Not a Living,” by Freakonomics Radio (2024).

In an episode from 2012, we looked at what Sleep No More and the Stanford Prison Experiment can tell us about who we really are.

• SOURCES:
  • Felix Barrett, artistic director of Punchdrunk.
  • Steven Levitt, professor of economics at the University of Chicago.
  • Philip Zimbardo, professor emeritus at Stanford University.

• RESOURCES:
  • “Philip Zimbardo, the psychologist behind the ‘Stanford Prison Experiment,’ dies at 91,” by Melissa De Witte (Stanford Report, 2024).
  • “Debunking the Stanford Prison Experiment,” by Thibault Le Texier (American Psychologist, 2019).
  • “The Lifespan of a Lie,” by Ben Blum (GEN, 2018).
  • Punchdrunk.

• EXTRAS:
  • “How Is Live Theater Still Alive?” by Freakonomics Radio (2025).
  • "Why Is There So Much Fraud in Academia?" by Freakonomics Radio (2024).

A hit like Hamilton can come from nowhere while a sure bet can lose $20 million in a flash. We speak with some of the biggest producers in the game — Sonia Friedman, Jeffrey Seller, Hal Luftig — and learn that there is only one guarantee: the theater owners always win. (Part two of a three-part series.)

• SOURCES:
  • Debby Buchholz, managing director of La Jolla Playhouse.
  • Sonia Friedman, Broadway producer.
  • Rocco Landesman, Broadway producer, former owner of Jujamcyn Theaters, former chairman of the National Endowment for the Arts.
  • Hal Luftig, Broadway producer.
  • Luis Miranda Jr., political strategist, founding president of the Hispanic Federation, the Northern Manhattan Arts Alliance, Viva Broadway, and The Public Theater.
  • Michael Rushton, professor of arts administration at Indiana University.
  • Jeffrey Seller, Broadway producer.
  • Richard Winkler, Broadway producer.
  • Stacy Wolf, professor of theater at Princeton University.

• RESOURCES:
  • Theater Kid: A Broadway Memoir, by Jeffrey Seller (2025).
  • Relentless: My Story of the Latino Spirit That Is Transforming America, by Luis Miranda Jr. (2024).
  • Beyond Broadway: The Pleasure and Promise of Musical Theatre Across America, by Stacy Wolf (2019).
  • "‘Hamilton’ Inc.: The Path to a Billion-Dollar Broadway Show," by Michael Paulson and David Gelles (New York Times, 2016).
  • "On the Performing Arts: The Anatomy of Their Economic Problems," by W.J. Baumol and W.G. Bowen (The American Economic Review, 1965).

• EXTRAS:
  • “How to Make the Coolest Show on Broadway,” by Freakonomics Radio (2024).
  • “You Can Make a Killing, but Not a Living,” by Freakonomics Radio (2024).

It has become fiendishly expensive to produce, and has more competition than ever. And yet the believers still believe. Why? And does the world really want a new musical about ... Abraham Lincoln?! (Part one of a three-part series.)

• SOURCES:
  • Christopher Ashley, artistic director of La Jolla Playhouse.
  • Quentin Darrington, actor.
  • Joe DiPietro, playwright and lyricist.
  • Crystal Monee Hall, composer, singer, actor.
  • Rocco Landesman, Broadway producer, former owner of Jujamcyn Theaters, former chairman of the National Endowment for the Arts.
  • Alan Shorr, Broadway producer.
  • Daniel Watts, writer, choreographer, actor.
  • Richard Winkler, Broadway producer.

• RESOURCES:
  • 3 Summers of Lincoln (2025)
  • “Live Performance Theaters in the US - Market Research Report (2014-2029),” by Grace Wood (IBISWorld, 2024).
  • Leadership: In Turbulent Times, by Doris Kearns Goodwin (2018).
  • Big River (1984)

• EXTRAS:
  • “How to Make the Coolest Show on Broadway,” by Freakonomics Radio (2024).
  • “You Can Make a Killing, but Not a Living,” by Freakonomics Radio (2024).

Why do so many promising solutions in education, medicine, and criminal justice fail to scale up into great policy? And can a new breed of “implementation scientists” crack the code?

• SOURCES:
  • Patti Chamberlain, senior research scientist at the Oregon Social Learning Center.
  • John List, professor of economics at the University of Chicago.
  • Lauren Supplee, former deputy chief operating officer at Child Trends.
  • Dana L. Suskind, professor of surgery at the University of Chicago.

• RESOURCES:
  • “How Can Experiments Play a Greater Role in Public Policy? 12 Proposals from an Economic Model of Scaling,” by Omar Al-Ubaydli, John List, Claire Mackevicius, Min Sok Lee, and Dana Suskind.
  • “The Science of Using Science: Towards an Understanding of the Threats to Scaling Experiments,” by Omar Al-Ubaydli, John List, and Dana Suskind (The Field Experiments Website, 2019).
  • “Inconsistent Device Use in Pediatric Cochlear Implant Users: Prevalence and Risk Factors,” by K.B.Wiseman and A.D. Warner-Czyz (U.S. National Library of Medicine National Institutes of Health, 2018).

• EXTRAS:
  • "Why Do Most Ideas Fail to Scale?" by Freakonomics Radio (2022).
  • "The Price of Doing Business with John List," by People I (Mostly) Admire (2022).
  • Child Trends.
  • Oregon Social Learning Center.
  • T.M.W. Center for Early Learning and Public Health.
  • The Field Experiments Website.

There is no sludgier place in America than Washington, D.C. But there are signs of a change. We’ll hear about this progress — and ask where Elon Musk and DOGE fit in. (Part two of a two-part series.)

• SOURCES:
  • Benjamin Handel, professor of economics at UC Berkeley.
  • Neale Mahoney, professor of economics at Stanford University.
  • Jennifer Pahlka, founder of Code for America.
  • Richard Thaler, professor of economics at The University of Chicago.

• RESOURCES:
  • "How Big Is the Subscription Cancellation Problem?" by Giacomo Fraccaroli, Neale Mahoney, and Zahra Thabet (Briefing Book, 2024).
  • Recoding America: Why Government Is Failing in the Digital Age and How We Can Do Better, by Jennifer Pahlka (2023).
  • Nudge: The Final Edition, by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein (2021).
  • "HealthCare.gov: Case Study of CMS Management of the Federal Marketplace," by Daniel Levinson (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 2016).

• EXTRAS:
  • "Sludge, Part 1: The World Is Drowning in It," by Freakonomics Radio (2025).