Épisodes

  • BitcoinTreasuries.net: ”60% Of Treasury Companies Are UNDERWATER.” What Happens Next | Pete Rizzo

    BitcoinTreasuries.net: ”60% Of Treasury Companies Are UNDERWATER.” What Happens Next | Pete Rizzo
    Dec 18 2025
    🔥 Pete Rizzo (BitcoinTreasuries.net president) reveals 60% of Bitcoin treasury companies are underwater on their purchases. He predicts Strategy (MSTR) will hit 750K Bitcoin by end of 2026. The perfect warm up to MSTR True North on a Wednesday! In this Treasury Orange exclusive, the journalist who's covered Bitcoin for over a decade reveals: ✅ 60% of 100+ sampled treasury companies underwater on Bitcoin purchases (new data) 💰 Strategy prediction: 750K BTC by end 2026 (from current 650K) driven by digital credit 📊 "It's 2013 in Bitcoin businesses." 400 companies today, headed to thousands 🎯 ATM dilution model collapsed. Preferreds + digital credit are the future ⚡ Only 3-5 companies can afford to build preferred products (capital costs too high) 🚨 "Wall Street wants you to think Bitcoin IPO'd and it's over." Treasury companies break that narrative 💎 Jurisdictional land grab mostly over. Now it's about execution and operating businesses *THE DATA BOMB:* Pete's team at BitcoinTreasuries.net analyzed 100+ treasury companies' cost basis: "About 60% were underwater." If Bitcoin stays range-bound, these companies must innovate or die. Who survives? "Execution teams that can navigate markets." Strategy ends 2025 at ~670K Bitcoin. Pete predicts 750K-850K by end of 2026. How? "Digital credit products. He'll do 10-12 more 10K Bitcoin buys in 2026. Won't match 2025's pace but still massive." *TIMESTAMPS:* 00:00 Cold Open 00:59 Introduction to Pete Rizzo & His Coverage of Bitcoin's Story 04:03 Adoption of Bitcoin As Payments & Prevailing Store of Value Narrative 06:01 Corporate Adoption and the Future of Bitcoin 09:59 Bitcoin's Shift from Counterculture to Mainstream Finance 17:33 Which Bitcoin Treasury Strategy Will Win Out Next? 24:58 Navigating Financial Metrics and Data in Bitcoin Companies 29:07 The Yin and Yang of Individual and Corporate Bitcoin Ethos 34:18 XXI: Jack Mallers x Tether x Softbank Treasury Company 37:16 Block's (Square) Entrance Into ASIC Hardware Design 38:39 Preferred Equity Models and Market Sentiment 41:24 Strategy Bitcoin Holdings Projection For 2026 42:57 Where To Follow Pete & BitcoinTreasuries.net 43:52 Stay Orange *BEST QUOTES:* 💥 "60% of treasury companies we sampled were underwater on their Bitcoin purchases. If Bitcoin stays here, they have to do something interesting" 🎯 "Strategy will end 2026 around 750K Bitcoin. Digital credit products will drive 10-12 more 10K buys" 📈 "It's 2013 in Bitcoin businesses. 400 companies today, headed to 10,000-50,000 globally" 🏦 "Wall Street wants to sell you: Bitcoin IPO'd, it's digital gold, it's over. Treasury companies break that narrative" ⚡ "Only the strong will survive. Not everyone's going to win. Execution teams separate themselves" *WHY THIS MATTERS:* Pete Rizzo runs BitcoinTreasuries.net - THE definitive data source tracking 400+ corporate Bitcoin holdings globally. He's covered Bitcoin as journalist/historian for over a decade (CoinDesk, Bitcoin Magazine). His team provides real-time updates, advanced metrics (fully diluted shares, Bitcoin per share, MNAV), and monthly corporate adoption reports. This interview reveals exclusive data: 60% of treasuries underwater, capital costs preventing most from building preferreds, jurisdictional consolidation coming, and specific 2026 predictions. *MENTIONED:* MicroStrategy/Strategy (MSTR) - 660K Bitcoin, targeting 750K by end 2026 MetaPlanet - jurisdictional winner in Japan XXI - Jack Mallers, Tether, SoftBank Block/Square - ASIC mining chips, Jack Dorsey XCE UK - recruiting company treasury play Falcon Edge - active treasury management Coinbase - late to treasury game Digital credit products - only 3 companies today Preferred equity evolution *CONNECT WITH PETE:* 🌐 https://bitcointreasuries.net 🔔 X: https://twitter.com/pete_rizzo_ 🔔 BTC Treasuries: https://twitter.com/BTCTreasuries 🎙️ Supply Shock Podcast: www.youtube.com/@SupplyShockBW *RELATED TREASURY ORANGE:* 📺 Matt Odell on MSTR: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8dW-U2JClko 📺 Rally Durham on why he sold ALL of his MSTR: https://youtu.be/J-aHzNMUDts 📺 Grain of Salt on why preferred equities are KING: https://twitter.com/TylerCompiler/status/1991318908255514920 📺 MSTR True North on WHY MSTR's USD Reserve Changed The Game: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2u9jJPzd5Wo&t=282s 📧 tyler@treasuryorange.com | 🔔 https://twitter.com/tylercompiler 🎙️ https://youtube.com/@TreasuryOrange | TreasuryOrange.com 🟠 STAY ORANGE #Bitcoin #BitcoinTreasury #MSTR #Strategy #MicroStrategy #MetaPlanet #XXI #JackMallers #BitcoinTreasuriesNet #PeteRizzo #Block #DigitalCredit #Preferreds #TreasuryOrange ⚠️ Not financial advice
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    44 min
  • Yves & Quentin From The One Chair Pod: Saylor’s $1.4B Cash Reserve for MSTR

    Yves & Quentin From The One Chair Pod: Saylor’s $1.4B Cash Reserve for MSTR
    Dec 11 2025
    🔥 Swiss Bitcoiners Yves and Quentin from the One Chair Pod debate whether Saylor's $1.4 billion USD reserve was BRILLIANT or common shareholder betrayal - plus deep dives on XXI's NYSE debut, MetaPlanet's preferreds, and Future (Switzerland). In this Treasury Orange exclusive, two of Europe's sharpest Bitcoin treasury analysts reveal: ✅ Why Strategy's $1.4B cash raise in 7 trading days was "a sign of strength" despite dilution 💰 MetaPlanet is "my favorite Bitcoin treasury at 1 mNAV." Why Japan's yield environment is perfect 📊 XXI (Jack Mallers) debuts with 43K Bitcoin - can they compete with Strategy's 660K? 🎯 Future (Switzerland with Adam Back) - why Swiss franc strength makes preferreds attractive ⚡ "Investing in treasuries above 2-3x MNAV is painful" - when to actually buy these stocks 🚨 Strategy should start selling cash-secured puts with their USD reserve (premium + cheaper Bitcoin) 💎 Block enabling Bitcoin payments for millions of merchants - adoption is gradual but coming *THE DEBATE:* Yves (Bitcoin maxi perspective): "Diluting the common to stack USD is not in shareholders' best interest. But Strategy had to show the market they'll do what it takes to pay preferreds no matter what. It's a narrative play." Quentin (pragmatic view): "Bitcoin per share went down this week, but long-term this makes preferreds way more attractive. They'll raise WAY more through preferreds now. Multiple times more accretive to common shareholders." Both agree: Strategy won't ever actually SELL Bitcoin. They have too many other options to raise capital first. *TIMESTAMPS:* 00:00 Intro To Yves & Quentin From The One Chair Podcast 01:25 The Strategy (MSTR) USD Reserve & Market Perception 07:36 Does It Ever Make Sense For Microstrategy To Sell Bitcoin? 09:23 Investment Considerations for Bitcoin Treasuries 15:27 Monetizing Bitcoin Holdings & Financial Strategies 22:36 XXI And The Competitive Bitcoin Treasury Landscape 29:08 MetaPlanet's Strategic Moves in Bitcoin Acquisition 33:18 Future: A Swiss Entrant Into the Bitcoin Treasury Space 35:45 Switzerland's Central Bank Rate Policy 38:51 Block's Merchant Services: Jack Dorsey's Adoption Push 41:39 Where To Find The One Chair Podcast 42:10 Stay Orange *BEST QUOTES:* 💥 "Strategy raised $1.4B in 7 days while Bitcoin is down 30% and stock is down massively. That's a sign of strength" 🎯 "If you're investing at 2-3x MNAV, that's painful. Close to 1.0 MNAV is a great entry point - especially blue chips like Strategy, Strive, MetaPlanet" 📈 "MetaPlanet is my favorite treasury company at these levels. They executed extremely well, learned from Strategy's mistakes" 🏦 "With USD reserve, Strategy should start selling cash-secured puts. Get premium + cheaper Bitcoin" ⚡ "XXI starts with 43K Bitcoin - impressive. But they need 600K more to compete with Strategy. What's the plan?" 🔥 "Japan is perfect for preferreds. Yield-starved environment. MetaPlanet can issue at lower yields than US products and still be attractive" *WHY THIS MATTERS:* Yves and Quentin run One Chair Pod, analyzing BTC treasuries from a European perspective. They provide the international view that complements US-focused analysis. Their mNAV framework is critical for investors: "Not all treasuries are equal. Blue chips (Strategy, Strive, MetaPlanet) at 1.0 MNAV are opportunities. Companies trading at 10-20x MNAV during the frenzy? Those hurt a lot of people." *COMPANIES DISCUSSED:* Strategy/MicroStrategy (MSTR) - $1.4B USD reserve, 660K+ Bitcoin, preferreds strategy XXI - Jack Mallers, 43K Bitcoin, NYSE debut, Strike integration MetaPlanet - Mercury & MARS preferreds launching January, Japan focus Future - Switzerland, Adam Back, Richard Byworth Strive (SATA) - Matt Cole's 12-month cash reserve model (founded by Vivek Ramaswamy) Block/Square - Jack Dorsey, Bitcoin merchant payments Strike - Bitcoin loans, potential public vehicle Tether - Paolo Ardoino project, tokenized USD stablecoin *CONNECT WITH ONE CHAIR POD:* 📺 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OneChairPod 🔔 Yves: https://twitter.com/GrafYves 🔔 Quentin: https://twitter.com/QuentinIsOnX *RELATED TREASURY ORANGE VIDEOS:* 📺 Matt Odell on MSTR Dilution: https://youtu.be/8dW-U2JClko 📺 Future (BTC Treasury w/ Richard Byworth): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xfo_P3mY48 📺 Strive CEO Matt Cole: https://youtu.be/8r21Ttd-DLY 📺 Grain of Salt on Prefs: https://twitter.com/TylerCompiler/status/1991318908255514920 📺 MSTR True North on USD Reserve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2u9jJPzd5Wo 📧 Contact: tyler@treasuryorange.com 🔔 Tyler on X: https://twitter.com/tylercompiler 🎙️ Treasury Orange: Analyzing Bitcoin treasury companies w/ insider access | TreasuryOrange.com https://youtube.com/@TreasuryOrange 🟠 STAY ORANGE #Bitcoin #MSTR #Strategy #MicroStrategy #BitcoinTreasury #MetaPlanet #XXI #JackMallers #Strike #OneChairPod...
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    43 min
  • Matt Odell: ”Saylor Kept Diluting You” is The REAL Reason MSTR Crashed 70%

    Matt Odell: ”Saylor Kept Diluting You” is The REAL Reason MSTR Crashed 70%
    Dec 6 2025
    🔥 $200M Bitcoin VC Matt Odell reveals why Saylor kept diluting MSTR shareholders - and why treasury companies without cash flow are dead (except Strategy). In this Treasury Orange exclusive, the partner at Ten31 who's deployed over $200 million to Bitcoin businesses reveals: ✅ Why Saylor kept hitting the common even after saying he'd stop (FOMO runs deep) 💰 "Treasury companies without cash flow won't be the winners" - Block vs Strategy model 📊 Bitcoin-backed loans are "the best terms you'll get out of all lending" in 5-10 years 🎯 Why Strike is minting Bitcoin with loans at 50% LTV (no credit checks, 5-minute approval) ⚡ The coordinated attack on MSTR: JP Morgan, MSCI, short sellers, S&P ratings 🚨 "Bitcoin risk/reward is the best it's ever been" - Trump + ETFs de-risked everything 💎 How Ten31 funds profitable Bitcoin businesses that stack to treasury (not pure-play leverage) like Block / Square. *THE BRUTAL TRUTH:* Matt doesn't hold back on Strategy: "He was pretty aggressive smacking the common over and over. Then he's like 'I'm not gonna keep hitting the common.' Two weeks later: 'No, I'm gonna keep diluting you.'" As a Bitcoiner, Matt gets the FOMO. But for shareholders watching 70% drawdowns: "You can believe it's a good 5-10 year play AND also say 'I'm not holding through him diluting me. I'm selling now, buying back later once it's clear he's not gonna just keep hitting the common.'" *TIMESTAMPS:* 00:00 Cold Open 01:07 Introduction to Matt Odell & How He Views Capital Allocation 03:10 The Evolution of Bitcoin Startups 06:57 Balancing Profitability and Growth in Bitcoin Startups 09:42 The Bitcoin Treasury Phenomenon 14:01 Cash Flow Generation in Bitcoin Companies 17:21 The Importance of Bitcoin Payments For Merchants & Living On A Bitcoin Standard 19:40 Bitcoin-Backed Loans: Use Cases and Risks 26:46 Microstrategy's (Strategy's) Challenges & Market Sentiment 31:59 Bitcoin As A Safe Haven Asset 37:13 Bitcoin's Role in a Corruptible World 39:39 Where To Follow Matt's Projects 40:06 Stay Orange *WHY THIS MATTERS:* Matt Odell is a partner at Ten31, a Bitcoin-only capital fund that's deployed $200M+ across 35 companies including Strike (largest investment), Unchained, Start9. He founded OpenSATS (funding open source Bitcoin projects), Bitcoin Park (Nashville community hub), and is a renowned Bitcoin educator. This is the insider's view of what ACTUALLY wins in Bitcoin businesses: profitable cash flow + treasury stacking. Not pure-play financial engineering (except Strategy's first-mover advantage with 650K BTC). Matt thinks Microstrategy will be able to monetize their bitcoin eventually. Matt explains why Strike's Bitcoin-backed loans (50% LTV, no credit check, 5-min approval) will become the best lending terms available. Why Block's model (profitable + stacking) will outperform treasuries long-term. And why Saylor's aggressive common dilution - despite understanding the thesis - created the recent pain. *MENTIONED:* MicroStrategy/Strategy (MSTR) - 650K Bitcoin, dilution analysis | Block/Square - Jack Dorsey's model | Strike - loans, buy/sell, going public via SPAC | Unchained - Bitcoin lending | XXI - Jack Mallers' treasury play | Strive/ProCap - digital credit attempts | MetaPlanet, NAKA | JP Morgan - margin requirements | MSCI - index exclusion | FTX/Celsius/BlockFi - lender collapses | Tornado Cash/Samourai | BlackRock ETF | Trump administration *CONNECT WITH MATT:* 🔔 Personal: https://odell.xyz 🔔 Ten31 on X: https://twitter.com/Ten31funds *RELATED TREASURY ORANGE VIDEOS:* 📺 Soleil on Trading Options: https://youtu.be/qamyJhu0zvI 📺 Strive CEO Matt Cole: https://youtu.be/8r21Ttd-DLY 📺 Swiss Bitcoin Treasury: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xfo_P3mY48 📺 BPI Policy Insider: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yIeSpsss4Mw 📧 Contact: tyler@treasuryorange.com 🔔 Tyler on X: https://twitter.com/tylercompiler 🎙️ Treasury Orange: Analyzing Bitcoin treasury companies with insider access | TreasuryOrange.com https://youtube.com/@TreasuryOrange 🟠 STAY ORANGE #Bitcoin #MSTR #Strategy #MicroStrategy #MichaelSaylor #BitcoinVC #MattOdell #Ten31 #Strike #BitcoinLoans #BitcoinTreasury #Block #JackDorsey #Unchained #BitcoinStartups #TreasuryOrange #BitcoinInvesting ⚠️ Not financial advice - Educational content only P.S. The Bitcoin loan breakdown at 19:57 shows how Strike gets customers $1M loans in 5 minutes with just Bitcoin collateral. This changes everything for treasury investors with unrealized gains.
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    41 min
  • Zack Shapiro: The Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Changes EVERYTHING (BPI Policy Director)

    Zack Shapiro: The Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Changes EVERYTHING (BPI Policy Director)
    Dec 4 2025
    🔥 BPI Head of Policy Zack Shapiro reveals how the proposed Bitcoin for America Act will let American Bitcoiners save MILLIONS in taxes potentially. In this Treasury Orange exclusive, Zack reveals: ✅ Why "the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve already exists" (Trump's executive order IS the SBR) 💰 The Bitcoin for America Act tax strategy: Pay with low-cost-basis BTC, trigger NO capital gains (talk with an accountant first) 📊 How the US will acquire Bitcoin without spending a dollar (20-year minimum hold requirement) 🎯 "We went from playing defense to playing offense" - what changed in Washington ⚡ Why regulating code is un-American (Tornado Cash & Samourai Wallet explained) 🚨 China stacks gold, America stacks Bitcoin - the geopolitical master plan 💎 Stablecoins create $600B+ demand for US Treasuries (Tether's secret weapon for American soft power) *TIMESTAMPS:* 00:00 Cold Open 01:02 Introduction to Zack Shapiro & Bitcoin Policy Institute 02:08 Navigating Bitcoin Regulations and Policy 08:04 Shifting Political Landscape for Bitcoin 12:07 Bitcoin As A Potential Reserve Asset & Is It An American-Influenced Technology? 16:53 Challenges in Educating Policymakers 21:35 Impact of The Financialization of Bitcoin on Policy Conversations 23:30 Zack's Thoughts on Bitcoin Treasury Companies 28:32 Bitcoin on Traditional Corporate Balance Sheets 32:43 The Role of Bitcoin as Money 35:01 The Bitcoin For America Act 38:34 State-Level Bitcoin Adoption and Reserves 42:15 Where To Follow Zack & Building On Bitcoin 44:17 Stay Orange 44:33 Outro *BEST QUOTES:* 💥 "The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve already exists. That's what the executive order is. Stop asking when we're getting one" 🎯 "We went from playing defense to playing offense. The prior administration was openly hostile. This is night and day" 📈 "If you prosecute developers for writing code, why not throw Tim Cook in prison when someone commits banking fraud on a MacBook Pro?" 🏦 "China stacks gold. Americans hold Bitcoin. The gigabrain geopolitical move is monetizing Bitcoin to our rivals' detriment" ⚡ "[With this bill] You can pay federal taxes with very low cost basis Bitcoin and have [advantageous] capital gains consequence. Tax lawyers are going to have a great time" 🔥 "The ETFs were the zero to one moment. Bitcoin went from 'fringe crazy thing' to 'real thing like the Nasdaq'" 🌊 "Bitcoin is overwhelmingly held by Americans and fits with American free market values, not a Chinese CBDC surveillance state" *LEGISLATIVE CONTEXT:* Trump's Executive Order established Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (already exists) Bitcoin for America Act (Rep. Warren Davidson) - codifies SBR, enables tax payments in BTC GENIUS Act (stablecoins) - passed Clarity Act / Market Structure Bill - protects Bitcoin developers, pending Senate Senator Cynthia Lummis's Bitcoin Act - revalue gold certificates, buy 1M Bitcoin over 5 years State-level SBR toolkit available at btcpolicy.org *MENTIONED POLICIES/CASES:* Bank Secrecy Act (1970s intermediary-based regulation) Executive Order 6102 (1933 gold confiscation) Tornado Cash prosecution (Ethereum privacy tool) Samourai Wallet prosecution (Bitcoin privacy tool) Russia FX reserves freeze broke Treasury neutrality Exchange Stabilization Fund (bought Argentinian pesos, could buy Bitcoin) MSCI index exclusion debate (hedge fund classification) *MENTIONED COMPANIES:* MicroStrategy/Strategy (MSTR) - "real volume on preferreds" MetaPlanet - Japan tax treatment advantage XXI & ProCap - operating business strategies Nakamoto Holdings - Kindly MD reverse merger example Strive (ASST) - Niche MSTR Figma - surprised market with $100M Bitcoin treasury Tether & Circle - stablecoin demand for US Treasuries Fairshake PAC (Coinbase) - flipped 2024 election on crypto Anchor Watch - Bitcoin insurance, multi-institutional custody *CONNECT WITH ZACK:* 🔔 X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/ZackBShapiro 🏛️ Bitcoin Policy Institute: https://btcpolicy.org ⚖️ Rains LLP: rains.law 📧 For Bitcoin startup founders/investors: zack@rains.law *RELATED VIDEOS:* 📺 Swiss Bitcoin Treasury cofounded by Adam Back: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xfo_P3mY48 📺 Strive CEO Matt Cole Interview: https://youtu.be/8r21Ttd-DLY 📺 Options Trader RETIRED on MSTR: https://youtu.be/qamyJhu0zvI 📺 MSTR True North on "Then They Fight You:" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CHwCZIp5Xnc 📧 Contact: tyler@treasuryorange.com 🔔 Tyler on X: https://twitter.com/tylercompiler 🎙️ Treasury Orange: Analyzing Bitcoin treasury companies with insider access | TreasuryOrange.com https://youtube.com/@TreasuryOrange @TreasuryOrange 🟠 STAY ORANGE #Bitcoin #BitcoinPolicy #BPI #ZackShapiro #StrategicBitcoinReserve #SBR #BitcoinForAmericaAct #WarrenDavidson #CynthiaLummis #TrumpBitcoin #BitcoinETF #Regulation #BankSecrecyAct #TornadoCash #SamouraiWallet #BitcoinTreasury #...
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    45 min
  • Richard Byworth: Bitcoin Treasuries Should SELL Bitcoin Below 1 mNAV (Former Nomura Trader)

    Richard Byworth: Bitcoin Treasuries Should SELL Bitcoin Below 1 mNAV (Former Nomura Trader)
    Dec 1 2025
    🔥 Hedge fund veteran Richard Byworth built a Swiss Treasury Company w/ Adam Back & reveals how Switzerland's zero interest rate environment creates the perfect storm for Bitcoin-backed credit products to capture $750 billion. In this Treasury Orange exclusive, the Chairman of Future & advisor to Jan3 reveals: ✅ Why he went from "Bitcoin is a scam" (2010) to building a treasury w/ Adam Back 💰 How Switzerland's 12 basis point 10-year bonds create unstoppable demand for Bitcoin yield 📊 The "hedge fund on top of an ETF" framework that traditional finance finally understands 🎯 Why Bitcoin treasuries should SELL Bitcoin at 20% discounts (religious zealotry is killing returns) ⚡ Strategy's €620M Stream IPO was "super smart" - waking up the $300 trillion bond market 🚨 Put options underwriting that generates free Bitcoin premium (secret weapon) 💎 Why "family offices understand Bitcoin better than hedge funds" *THE GAME-CHANGING INSIGHT:* Richard explains why Bitcoin treasury companies are the "release valve of the fiat Ponzi" - using financial engineering to expose interest rate manipulation. With Swiss 10-year bonds at 12 basis points versus Bitcoin's CAGR, the arbitrage is undeniable. Future is positioned to offer 3-5% credit products in a country desperate for yield. *BEST QUOTES:* 💥 "Bitcoin treasury companies are the release valve of the fiat Ponzi" 🎯 "It's a hedge fund sitting on top of an ETF - that's how you explain it to Wall Street" 📈 "You never lend money at zero in a real market. The market is being manipulated" 🏦 "Swiss 10-year bonds at 12 basis points. Imagine locking up money for 10 years to get that. It's insanity" ⚡ "If you can buy Bitcoin at a 20% discount by buying back your shares, you should absolutely sell Bitcoin" 🌊 "Family offices made so much money in crypto that they haven't understood it's all a scam except Bitcoin" *TIMESTAMPS:* 00:00 Cold Open 01:49 Why Is Bitcoin Hard To Grok For TradFi 03:36 Richard's Journey To Bitcoin 08:21 The Fiat Debasement Trade: Bitcoin's Role 13:09 Building Future: A Bitcoin Treasury Company 16:10 Meeting Adam Back 17:53 Switzerland's Economic Landscape & Interest Rates 21:36 Bitcoin Treasury Companies & Institutional Adoption 24:00 Michael Saylor's Pivot To Preferred Equities As Leverage 27:00 Treasuries As A Hedge Fund Built On Bitcoin 33:39 Bitcoin Is A Threat To Fiat / Coordinated Attack? 36:48 Orange-Pilling Family Offices & Bitcoin As Wealth Preservation 40:11 How To Follow Richard 40:41 Stay Orange 40:48 Outro *THE TEAM BEHIND FUTURE:* Richard Byworth: Chairman, ex-Nomura, hedge fund veteran, financial engineer Adam Back: Co-founder, Blockstream CEO, Bitcoin technical pioneer Sebastian Hess: CEO, serial entrepreneur, ex-Founders Fund backed Donald Ewer: Advisor, ex-Citadel & Caxton Vijay Selvam: Board, author of "Principles of Bitcoin," lawyer Julian Linigar: Co-founder, Relai CEO Mark Syz: Vice Chair, private equity specialist *MENTIONED:* Future (Swiss Bitcoin Treasury) MicroStrategy/Strategy (MSTR) - Stream (STRE) IPO Metaplanet - Simon Gerovich put underwriting strategy Jan3 - Nation-state Bitcoin adoption Relai - Swiss Bitcoin DCA app Blockstream - Adam Back H100 (trading at 20% discount to NAV) Strive/ASST - Matt Cole comparison JP Morgan - short attack discussion MSCI/Morgan Stanley index exclusion debate S&P 500 inclusion battle ahead *CONNECT WITH RICHARD:* 🔔 X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/RichardByworth 🏢 Future: https://twitter.com/Future_Hodlings *RELATED VIDEOS:* 📺 Grain of Salt Changed His Mind on Prefs: https://twitter.com/TylerCompiler/status/1991318908255514920 📺 Strive CEO Matt Cole Interview: https://youtu.be/8r21Ttd-DLY 📺 Options Trader RETIRED on MSTR: https://youtu.be/qamyJhu0zvI 📺 Former MSTR Bull's Exit Warning: https://youtu.be/J-aHzNMUDts 📺Adam Back with Richard: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUU65dpFA34 📧 Contact: tyler@treasuryorange.com 🔔 Tyler on X: https://twitter.com/tylercompiler 🎙️ Treasury Orange: Analyzing Bitcoin treasury companies with insider access | TreasuryOrange.com https://youtube.com/@TreasuryOrange 🟠 STAY ORANGE #Bitcoin #BitcoinTreasury #Switzerland #SwissFinance #AdamBack #Future #Blockstream #ZeroRates #FixedIncome #MSTR #Strategy #Stream #STRE #Metaplanet #Jan3 #Relai #HedgeFund #FinancialEngineering #TreasuryOrange #BitcoinCredit #EuropeanBitcoin ⚠️ Not financial advice - Educational content only
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    41 min
  • Matt Cole: Strive WILL Outperform MSTR - Strive CEO On Building A Bitcoin Credit Engine

    Matt Cole: Strive WILL Outperform MSTR - Strive CEO On Building A Bitcoin Credit Engine
    Nov 17 2025

    As CEO of Strive (ASST), Matt Cole is building what could be MSTR's biggest competitor using a revolutionary "digital credit" strategy that that is making Saylor ENVIOUS.

    Matt managed $70 BILLION at CalPERS - America's largest pension fund. What he discovered about US debt monetization made him put his ENTIRE net worth into Bitcoin in 2017.

    In this explosive interview, Matt reveals:

    - How Strive was able to raise $160 MILLION in their SATA IPO

    - Why the Fed is "gaslighting" Americans about money printing

    - The exact moment he realized US debt crisis can't be fixed

    - How Strive's perpetual preferred equity could outperform Bitcoin

    - Why pension funds are secretly eyeing Bitcoin treasuries

    - The simple math proving dollar collapse is inevitable

    "Everyone buys Bitcoin at the price they deserve" - Matt bought at $3,000 after seeing what's really happening inside the US Treasury market.

    *TIMESTAMPS:*

    00:00 Cold Open

    00:40 Intro to Strive CEO Matt Cole

    01:01 From CalPERS to Bitcoin Treasury

    07:48 Bitcoin as the Hurdle Rate & Digital Credit

    13:41 Understanding the Carry Trade

    20:07 Innovations in Preferred Equity Products

    28:53 Selling SATA & Future Strive Preferreds

    34:48 SATA Addressing Pension Fund Challenges?

    38:43 Bitcoin Treasuries Attacking The S&P Rating

    42:55 The ASST-Strive Reverse Merger

    46:55 Bitcoin Treasury Company Mania & Forecast

    55:51 Digital Credit Focus of Strive & Alpha Opportunities

    58:43 Where To Follow Matt Online

    58:58 Stay Orange

    59:15 Outro

    *KEY QUOTES:*

    💰 "I was being gaslit by the Fed and Treasury"

    📈 "0.0% chance we ever get fiscal situation under control"

    🏦 "Bitcoin treasury companies are the biggest opportunity in all of finance"

    ⚡ "We have the capital structure MicroStrategy wants in 2029"

    *GUEST:* Matt Cole, CEO of Vivek Ramaswamy's Strive

    Follow Matt: https://twitter.com/@ColeMacro

    Company: https://twitter.com/@strive https://strive.com/

    Matt's Podcast, The Hurdle Rate: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLoB1eZWSVHVbHsHgaIIp0cy0MSDoz7uo0

    Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/@TylerCompiler

    *MENTIONED:*

    - Strive's SATA preferred equity

    - MicroStrategy's debt strategy

    - CalPERS & pension crisis

    - Fed money printing through banks

    - Semler Acquisition

    - True North

    - Strategy preferred equities: STRC, STRF, STRE, STRD, STRK

    *RELATED VIDEOS:*

    ASST/Strive Deep Dive: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eho6_cAJo9Q

    Strive Director James Lavish Interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JDBxEekO8m8

    SATA breakdown: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QY_8XLiRAqM

    Hurdle Rate Episode on Digital Credit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4Y88YFlGpk&list=PLoB1eZWSVHVbHsHgaIIp0cy0MSDoz7uo0&index=1

    True North YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCR9Q6w9zyf_KS2ujrzhoLyA

    📧 Contact Me: tyler@treasuryorange.com

    🎙️ Treasury Orange: https://youtube.com/@TreasuryOrange https://TreasuryOrange.com

    🟠 STAY ORANGE

    #Bitcoin #Strive #ASST #MicroStrategy #MSTR #BTC #CalPERS #DigitalCredit #MattCole #PreferredEquity #TreasuryOrange #Crypto #Investing #HODL #stocks #HurdleRate
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    1 h
  • Matthew Mezinskis: Bitcoin Power Law Says $250,000 by JANUARY?!

    Matthew Mezinskis: Bitcoin Power Law Says $250,000 by JANUARY?!
    Oct 27 2025
    Matthew Mezinskis tracks Bitcoin's "power curve" - a 96% correlated mathematical model that's predicted Bitcoin's price action since 2018. In this conversation, Matthew walks us through why Bitcoin's power curve suggests a $250K-$375K price target by year end, what would invalidate the 4-year cycle, and why Bitcoin treasury companies might exacerbate the next bear market. KEY TOPICS DISCUSSED: *The Power Trend Explained* Matthew breaks down the difference between power law growth (Bitcoin) versus exponential growth (everything else in traditional finance). Bitcoin doubles every ~700 days now, but this doubling time increases proportionally as the network ages - creating sustainable, network-driven adoption rather than boom-bust exponential cycles. *Price Targets for This Cycle* Based on historical percentile bands, Bitcoin has hit the 90th percentile (2X the trend) in every prior cycle. With the trend at ~$125K by year end, that puts the 90th percentile at $250K. The 96th percentile (seen in 2021) would be $375K. Matthew considers this the base case range. *The $170K Litmus Test* If Bitcoin doesn't reach $170K (80th percentile) by year end, Matthew says it's time to rethink the four-year cycle. This is the minimum level Bitcoin has achieved in all previous cycles - failing to reach it would signal a structural change. *Why This Cycle Looks Different* Since the ETF launch, Bitcoin has been chopping around the regression line with muted volatility compared to previous cycles. Matthew explains why this doesn't invalidate the power curve - the 96% R-squared fit remains intact. *Bitcoin vs The Dollar System* Matthew shows how Bitcoin has surpassed the British Pound in market cap (now 2X larger) and explains why the dollar's $1.1 quadrillion annual Fed wire transaction volume means Bitcoin's displacement of fiat will take decades, not years. The network effect is enormous. *The Fed's Inevitable QE* Walking through bank reserves, the reverse repo facility, and Treasury issuance, Matthew explains why the Fed will restart quantitative easing despite not wanting to. They have room to increase their Treasury holdings from 17% to 28% (pandemic peak) without hitting all-time highs. *Bitcoin Treasury Company Risk* Matthew compares the current Bitcoin treasury boom to the 2017 ICO mania. While praising Saylor's execution, he warns that the 50th Bitcoin treasury company with poorly structured debt could exacerbate a bear market through cascading liquidations. *What Validates the Power Curve* The model has maintained a 96% R-squared fit since 2018. It's not technical analysis or cycle prediction - it's measuring Bitcoin's growth as a network, similar to how cities grow. The sustainability of power law growth is why it's different from exponential booms that always bust. *Investment Strategy* Matthew's approach is simple: understand Bitcoin grows like a network (power law), not like traditional assets (exponential). The trend is your friend - use the percentile bands to ground yourself during euphoria or panic. *WHO IS MATTHEW MEZINSKIS:* Matthew is an American living in Eastern Europe, founder of Porkopolis Economics and Crypto Voices podcast. He has been tracking global base money and Bitcoin's power curve since 2018. Known for his data-driven approach to Bitcoin analysis and comparing Bitcoin's market cap to global fiat monetary base, Matthew is spreading the good word about bitcoin's network-like adoption. Follow Matthew: https://twitter.com/@1BaseMoney Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/@TylerCompiler Porkopolis Economics: https://www.porkopolis.io Base Money Charts: https://www.1basemoney.com Treasury Orange: https://treasuryorange.com RELATED TREASURY ORANGE EPISODES: Checkmate: Why $95K Is Bitcoin's Line in the Sand https://youtu.be/_mZqfx-Y3Q4 James Lavish: The Debasement Trade & Why QE Is Coming https://youtu.be/JDBxEekO8m8 Rally Durham: Why He Sold All His MSTR https://youtu.be/J-aHzNMUDts TIMESTAMPS 00:00 Cold Open 01:31 Intro To Matthew Mezinskis 01:55 Understanding the Power Law Trend 12:20 Analyzing Bitcoin's Growth and Adoption 16:59 Evaluating Bitcoin's Price Trends and Cycles 30:21 Bitcoin's Position Among Fiat Currencies 35:38 Bitcoin's Future in Global Transactions 46:40 Understanding the Fed's Balance Sheet and Money Supply 53:02 The Fed's Response to Economic Challenges 59:09 Bitcoin Treasuries: Opportunities and Risks 01:11:37 Stay Orange 01:11:52 Outro 📧 Contact: tyler@treasuryorange.com 🎙️ Treasury Orange: Bitcoin power curve analysis & treasury companies 🟠 STAY ORANGE #Bitcoin #PowerCurve #MatthewMezinskis #PorkopolisEconomics #BitcoinPricePrediction #BitcoinTreasury #MSTR #Strive #BitcoinCycle #PowerLaw #PowerTrend #CryptoVoices #Fed #QE
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    1 h et 12 min
  • James Lavish: QE is COMING & Why We NEED Bitcoin Treasury Companies

    James Lavish: QE is COMING & Why We NEED Bitcoin Treasury Companies
    Oct 24 2025
    James Lavish is a hedge fund manager, macro investor, and managing partner at the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund. In this conversation, he explains why the U.S. is caught in a spending trap with no way out and what that means for Bitcoin and treasury companies. **WHAT WE DISCUSS:** **The Spending Trap** James breaks down why DOGE failed and why cutting government spending is mathematically impossible. With interest payments, defense, and entitlements consuming the entire budget, there's no political or practical path to fiscal responsibility. **Bitcoin Treasury Company Management** We discuss what separates good management from bad in Bitcoin treasury companies like Strive, MicroStrategy, and others. James shares what he looks for as an investor in the space and why management quality matters more than most realize. **Bitcoin as a Risk Asset** James explains Bitcoin's current position in financial markets - why it trades as a risk asset despite its monetary properties, and what needs to change for institutions to view it differently. **The Fed's Liquidity Problem** A deep dive into bank reserves, Treasury issuance, and why the Fed is approaching a crisis point. James walks through the mechanics of how Janet Yellen's strategy of issuing short-term debt has drained the financial system's shock absorber. **Why QE Is Inevitable** Despite the political cost of restarting quantitative easing, James explains why the Fed has no choice. The math simply doesn't work any other way. He shares his timeline and what signs to watch for. **Macro Predictions** James shares his views on where markets are heading, why inflation isn't going away, and how the "debasement trade" is Wall Street's recognition that the dollar's purchasing power will continue to decline. **Bitcoin's Role** We explore whether Bitcoin can actually solve the debt problem or if we need a "productivity miracle" to avoid currency debasement. James shares why he's positioned heavily in Bitcoin despite the challenges ahead. **Investment Strategy for Treasury Companies** Practical advice on evaluating Bitcoin treasury companies as investments, what premium levels make sense, and how to think about risk in this emerging sector. **KEY INSIGHTS:** • Why government spending cuts are politically and mathematically impossible • The mechanics of how bank reserves are being drained • What the SOFR spread widening tells us about financial stress • Why the Fed will restart QE despite not wanting to • How to evaluate management quality in Bitcoin treasury companies • Why Bitcoin trades as risk-on despite being digital gold • The "debasement trade" and what Wall Street really thinks • Bitcoin-backed bonds, equities, and real estate **WHO IS JAMES LAVISH:** Former hedge fund manager and macro investor who now serves as Managing Partner at the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund. Known for his deep understanding of monetary policy, liquidity cycles, and how traditional finance is positioning for Bitcoin adoption. Author of The Informationist newsletter covering macro economics and Bitcoin. Follow James Lavish: https://twitter.com/@jameslavish Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/@TylerCompiler Bitcoin Opportunity Fund: https://www.bitcoinopportunity.fund The Informationist: https://www.jameslavish.com --- **RELATED TREASURY ORANGE EPISODES:** • Checkmate: Why $95K Is Bitcoin's Line in the Sand https://youtu.be/_mZqfx-Y3Q4 • Rally Durham: Why He Sold All His MSTR https://youtu.be/J-aHzNMUDts • Pierre Rochard: Strive Director on How Bitcoin Treasury Companies Could PREVENT The Next Crash https://youtu.be/qbluTRrzres --- **TIMESTAMPS:** 00:00 Cold Open 01:10 Introduction to James Lavish: Fund Manager, Director & Bitcoiner 08:30 The Role of Management in Bitcoin Treasury Companies like Strive 14:52 Market Dynamics and Bitcoin's Position As A Risk Asset 20:53 Investment Strategies for Bitcoin Treasury Companies 29:48 Macro Economic Insights & Predictions 34:26 The Impact of Treasury Issuance on Bank Reserves 38:13 The Fed's Response to Financial Stress 41:35 Why Yellen Issued On The Short End, Inflation, And DOGE's Failure 44:57 The Challenges of Managing National Debt And The Spending Trap 50:21 Exploring Bitcoin as a Financial Solution Without A Productivity Miracle 56:18 Where To Follow James & His Fund 57:04 Stay Orange 57:18 Outro --- 📧 Contact: tyler@treasuryorange.com 🎙️ Treasury Orange: Bitcoin treasury analysis & macro economics 🟠 STAY ORANGE #Bitcoin #JamesLavish #MacroEconomics #QE #QuantitativeEasing #FederalReserve #BitcoinTreasury #MSTR #Strive #DebtCrisis #Inflation #BitcoinOpportunityFund
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    58 min