Link to IWP's January 2026 Update (PDF) Market Update

Markets have started the year on a steadier footing, with equity markets rebounding after a softer end to last year, while geopolitical developments add a layer of uncertainty without materially disrupting markets so far.

In this month's discussion, Andrew and Chris unpack the key issues influencing markets and portfolio positioning:

• Equity markets have opened the year reasonably well following a weaker finish to last year, with January activity picking up as investors return from the holiday period
• Geopolitical tensions involving Venezuela and Iran, alongside renewed unpredictability from Donald Trump, have increased headline risk, though market impacts have remained relatively muted to date
• Oil prices remain a key watchpoint, with any escalation in global tensions potentially feeding through to higher energy costs and renewed inflation pressures
• In Australia, inflation has eased from prior peaks but remains above the RBA's target range, while stronger-than-expected consumer spending suggests parts of the economy may be reheating
• The RBA faces a finely balanced outlook, with improving sentiment and spending weighed against ongoing cost-of-living pressures and the risk of further inflation persistence
• In the U.S., attention is turning to tensions between Trump and the Federal Reserve, including scrutiny of Jerome Powell, raising questions around central bank independence and future rate policy
• Portfolio strategy remains unchanged, with no short-term adjustments in response to current news flow, reinforcing a disciplined, long-term investment approach
• Diversification and broad market exposure continue to be emphasised, with expectations that returns will broaden beyond a small group of high-profile tech and AI stocks over time
• Overall, the message remains consistent: stay the course, avoid reacting to short-term noise, and remain focused on long-term fundamentals and diversified portfolio construction.

Should you prefer this in video form, please head to Youtube