We need to talk about post-Putin. It's fruitless at this point to try and come up with names of potential successors -- but maybe we can identify potential archetypes, the kinds of people who might succeed him, depending on the perceived needs of the day.

The Julian Waller article I mention is here.

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The forthcoming release of the updated version of my WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT PUTIN gives me an excuse to consider whether and how Putin has changed since I originally wrote the book in 2018. My conclusion: not so much a different Putin as 'Putin squared.'

In the second half, I discuss and riff off Russia’s Turkish Wars. The Tsarist Army and the Balkan Peoples in the Nineteenth Century by Victor Taki, published by University of Toronto Press.

Sign-up for the Wikistrat webinar I mentioned on 5 November is here.

The Morris/Tickle/Pierce podcast is Russia Unfiltered.

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The new Japanese PM wants to conclude a long-delayed peace treaty with Russia - but that will mean selling a thorny territorial dispute. Will Moscow show the cunning and vision to try and undermine Japanese support for Ukraine -- indeed, can it, while keeping China and North Korea happy?

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Time to look at the spooks again. It seems that the FSB's Military Counterintelligence Department (in other words, the anti-coup squad) may be getting a new head. What does this mean for the internal struggles to replace the ailing current director, Bortnikov? Is 'crown prince' Sergei Korolev finally going to take his place? And what might this mean?

My previous look at Korolev was in In Moscow's Shadows 171: The invisible and invidious Sergei Korolev, perhaps the next head of the FSB (20 Oct. 2024) and I branded Nikolai Patrushev 'the most dangerous man in Russia' way, way back in In Moscow's Shadows 6: The Most Dangerous Man in Russia (14 June 2020).

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Putin's 4-hour keynote and Q&A at Valdai gives us at least some insight into his thinking and his assumptions, but the interesting thing is that the key themes are strangely also reflected in the thinking of some of his fiercest critics, as everyone oversimplifies a complex world.

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We spend a great deal of time thinking about Putin's intentions, his strategy. Yet it's hard to argue that this position, mired in Ukraine, sanctioned and facing recession, is where he wanted to be. Maybe, then, a better way of trying to analyse his regime and Late Putinism's prospects is through his blunders...

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MiGs in Estonian airspace, military exercises in Belarus, talk of the next war against NATO being prepared. Are we under threat? Well, maybe that’s up to us. I look at recent events, and Carlo Masala's new book 'If Russia Wins' to wonder if the West risks encouraging Russian pressure and undermining its own position.

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Zelensky said on Friday that "the basic document on security guarantees for Ukraine, and therefore for the whole of our Europe, is practically ready." I suspect this may be a stretch, but it is worth considering what might and might not work. Crucially, any guarantees must be credible, meaningful and sustainable, if they are to reassure Kyiv and deter Moscow.

As I mention, the revised and updated version of my book We Need To Talk About Putin is published in the UK by Penguin on 13 November, and is available for pre-order. Elsewhere, it may take longer for physical editions to be on sale, but the e-book should be available around the same time.

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here.

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