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Kernels of Truth: Corn Futures, Harvest Wrap-Up & Turkey Day Pause

Kernels of Truth: Corn Futures, Harvest Wrap-Up & Turkey Day Pause

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This is your Daily Corn Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.

Hey everyone, welcome back to Daily Corn Price Tracker. I'm Vanessa Clark, and I'm thrilled to have you here on this Wednesday, November twenty-sixth. We've got some really interesting movement happening in the corn market as we head into the Thanksgiving holiday, so let's dive right in.

First, let's talk about where corn is trading right now. December corn futures closed yesterday at four dollars and twenty-three and a half cents per bushel, down just a quarter cent. But here's where it gets interesting for those of you watching the deferred contracts. March corn is where we're seeing some real strength. March futures climbed one and a half cents, closing at four dollars and thirty-eight and a half cents. So we're definitely seeing some spreading action happening in the market as traders are rebuilding carry along the curve.

Now, the reason we're seeing this particular pattern is really important. Friday is first notice day for December corn futures. That's a big deal because it means producers who are holding basis contracts need to make some decisions. Are they going to roll to another month, or are they going to price their bushels? This is typically bringing selling pressure into the market as people are liquidating positions before that first notice day hits.

Looking at the cash market, the national average cash corn price ticked up a quarter cent to three dollars and eighty-eight cents per bushel. So we're seeing some modest support on the physical side, though honestly, demand has been pretty quiet as everyone gears up for the holiday.

Here's something pretty encouraging though. According to export data from early this week, we saw corn sales of fifty-two million bushels reported. Now, year to date, total commitments are running one billion two hundred and ten million bushels, which puts us fifty-five percent ahead of last year's pace at this time. The USDA is forecasting exports of three point seventy-five billion bushels for the full year, suggesting about a nine percent increase over last year. That's solid demand support, especially in a year where we've had some production concerns.

Speaking of production, the USDA's latest crop progress report showed that ninety-six percent of the U.S. corn crop has been harvested as of Sunday. That's just slightly behind the five year average of ninety-seven percent, so harvest is basically complete across the country.

One thing I want to mention for you market watchers out there is that ethanol stocks have slipped to twenty-two million barrels, which is below expectations and below year ago levels. Some analysts are wondering if the market might be building in expectations for lower production coming into January. Historically, the USDA has lowered the crop size from the November report about sixty-five percent of the time in January, so that's something to keep an eye on.

As we head into the long weekend, just remember that the market will be closed Thursday for Thanksgiving, and we'll have a hard open at eight thirty Central Standard Time on Friday morning. That's when we'll get more export data, so there could be some interesting price action once we're back in business.

Thanks so much for tuning in to Daily Corn Price Tracker. I really appreciate you spending time with me today. Be sure to subscribe so you don't miss tomorrow's update, and I'll see you next time. Have a wonderful Thanksgiving.

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