• Ready, Shoot, Aim Fed
• Misunderstanding of Oracle CDS
• Welcome back to the ‘90s

• Long Vol and long Delta
• Paid to be long Correlation
• Buy Everything!

• Risk-on sentiment is reinforced by accelerated global earnings
• Markets go up... volatility goes up
• The Magnificents’ P/E-to-expected growth is favorable — not true for the Everything Else
• Cross-asset correlations are already historically high — a short hop to “1”
• Gold is expected to move higher, driven by global populist monetary and fiscal stimulus

• Surprise — no surprises • Front end is clear • Back end is lost

• US Dollar allergy & US Treasury curve illness
• Tipping point for US Dollar weakness
• Risk appetite still going strong!

The winners, the losers, and the in-betweens

• Old economy vs New economy CapEx
• Trump has Made Europe Great Again (“MEGA”)
• US De-globalization is leading to Global De-correlation

• Realized volatility did the heavy lifting
• Trade (“Cold”) War discount
• Pace of news flow will slow

• What does Liberation Day mean for inflation?
• Bonds and the Fed are pointing to growth contraction and moderate stagflation
• Tail-hedging didn’t work
• Trump Put is very different than the Fed Put