Welcome to Gold Dragon Daily, an AI-powered podcast by Gold Dragon Investments, helping you win the game of passive investing. For more information, visit GotTheGold.com. I'm your host, Justin 2.0.

This is Market Pulse — Friday's numbers.

Oil

• • WTI closed at $68.30, Brent at $72.39
• • WTI-Brent spread sits at $4.09
• • Oil prices gained ground this week balancing geopolitical risks against demand concerns
• • Permian Basin breakeven costs average $65 per barrel
• • Tier 1 wells at $60, large operators achieving $58 breakevens
• • Some existing wells operate profitably below $50
• • OPEC+ production decisions and winter demand will drive near-term direction

Gas

• • Henry Hub settled at $3.04 per MMBtu on December 4
• • Trending 34.8% higher since mid-October
• • EIA projects winter heating season averages of $2.68 per MMBtu
• • Potentially reaching $3.10 in January 2025
• • Above-average storage inventories provide buffer against short-term volatility
• • Bullish sentiment persists heading into peak winter demand

Real Estate

• • Industrial cap rates range from 5.5% to 7.0% for logistics spaces
• • Regional variations from 5.84% in the Northeast to 6.83% in the Southwest
• • Multifamily cap rates expanded 15 basis points on Class A and B properties to 5.05%
• • Elevated interest rates limited transaction volume in 2024
• • Anticipated rate cuts in 2025 could compress cap rates and boost activity

Credit

• • SOFR at 4.53% as of December 30, 2024
• • Fed policy remains the key driver
• • Markets positioning for potential rate adjustments in 2025

Bottom Line

• • Oil: Target sub-$50 breakevens, hedge floors above $75
• • Gas: Selective exposure, winter contracts locked
• • Real Estate: Industrial sub-5.7% caps near logistics hubs
• • Credit: Senior secured, SOFR plus 650+, LTV under 65%

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