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For more information, visit GotTheGold.com... I'm your host, Justin two-point-oh... This is Market Pulse. Week-end wrap-up and forward look.

Week ending strong despite holiday volatility.

Oil

• Held gains Friday
• Brent steady near $63, WTI holding above $59
• Both benchmarks posting modest weekly gains after mid-December lows
• Geopolitical tensions providing support: U.S.-Venezuela sanctions tightening, Russian oil infrastructure under pressure
• Supply disruption concerns offsetting demand weakness
• OPEC+ output increases scheduled for January
• Chinese demand remains sluggish
• Full-year 2025: Brent down 16%, WTI down 18% — worst annual performance since 2020
• Forward look: Oversupply narrative dominates early 2026

Natural Gas

• Retreated from week highs
• Closed near $4.15/MMBtu, down from Thursday's $4.34
• Weather forecasts moderating, storage draws slowing
• LNG exports remain robust at 18.5 bcf/day
• U.S. production holding near record at 107.74 bcf/day
• Winter strip forecast at $4.30
• Forward look: Cold snaps drive volatility through January

Equity Markets

• Markets closed early Friday
• Dow holding near 48,731
• S&P near 6,932
• Nasdaq maintaining gains
• Year-end positioning continues, trading volume thin through New Year's
• Full-year 2025 performance strong: S&P up approximately 23%, Nasdaq up 28%
• Technology and consumer discretionary led gains, energy lagged significantly
• Fed rate cuts in September catalyzed rally
• Forward look: Earnings season kicks off mid-January, valuations elevated

Real Estate

• Finishing 2025 with momentum
• Cap rates stabilized after early-year peaks
• Industrial between 6.5-7.5%
• Multifamily Class A at 5%
• Office finding footing, retail recovering strongly
• Transaction volume up year-over-year
• Forward look: 2026 brings continued cap rate stability, increased deal flow, and sector rotation into industrial and data centers

Credit Markets

• Closing year at record strength
• Private credit reached $3.5 trillion assets under management
• CLO issuance nearly doubled 2023 levels
• Spreads tightened significantly: AAA CLO bonds at SOFR + 110 basis points
• Middle-market converging toward broadly syndicated loan levels
• Default rates low but expected to normalize
• Forward look: M&A activity rebounds in 2026, driving direct lending growth

Bottom Line

• Oil: Targeting sub-$50 breakevens, hedge floors above $75
• Gas: Selective exposure, winter contracts locked
• Industrial: Sub-6.5% caps near logistics hubs
• Senior secured credit: SOFR + 650, LTV under 65%

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