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For more information, visit GotTheGold.com... I'm your host, Justin two-point-oh... This is Market Pulse. Tuesday's numbers.

Final trading day of 2025.

Oil

• Mixed on year-end session
• Brent rose 0.33% to $61.69
• WTI fell 0.5% to $57.72
• Both benchmarks closing worst year since 2020
• Brent down 16% annually
• WTI down 18%
• Oversupply narrative dominated 2025
• OPEC+ output increases scheduled for January
• Chinese demand weakness persisted throughout year
• U.S. production remained elevated
• Geopolitical tensions provided minimal support

Natural Gas

• Climbed
• Rose to $4.04/MMBtu as of midday
• January contract near $4.42
• Weather forecasts supporting prices
• Storage draws accelerating
• LNG exports remain robust near record levels
• U.S. production holding at 107.74 bcf/day
• Winter volatility expected through January
• 12-month strip forecast at $3.76

Equity Markets

• Full trading day
• Bond market closing early at 2 PM Eastern
• Markets closed Wednesday for New Year's Day
• Full-year 2025 performance exceptional
• S&P up 23%
• Nasdaq up 28%
• Technology and AI-focused stocks led gains
• Fed rate cuts catalyzed rally
• Energy worst-performing sector
• Small caps surged fourth quarter
• Year-end positioning complete

Real Estate

• Closing strong year
• Office vacancy peaked at 20.4% first quarter but stabilizing
• Prime spaces in key markets showing strength
• Flight to quality driving Class A demand
• Industrial leasing rebounded late year
• E-commerce and manufacturing supporting warehouse demand
• Multifamily occupancy stabilized
• Rent growth returning most markets
• Retail showing resilience — grocery-anchored centers performing well
• Construction slowdown expected to drive rent increases
• Data centers explosive growth from AI workloads
• 88% of executives expecting higher revenues in 2026

Credit Markets

• Record year
• Private credit reached $3.5 trillion assets under management, up 17% from 2023
• Strong fundraising with $209 billion in final closes
• Competition increasing from broadly syndicated loan market
• Bank partnerships expanding
• Private credit providing capital-efficient solutions for long-dated corporate loans, infrastructure, real estate
• Asset-based finance projected at $8 trillion in three years
• Retail participation growing through evergreen funds
• Direct lending appetite remains strong
• M&A rebound expected to drive 2026 growth

Bottom Line

• Oil: Targeting sub-$50 breakevens, hedge floors above $75
• Gas: Selective exposure, winter contracts locked
• Industrial: Sub-6.5% caps near logistics hubs
• Senior secured credit: SOFR + 650, LTV under 65%

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