Factories are feeling the squeeze, but one surprising shift may be a quiet win for anyone watching inflation. We dig into October’s ISM manufacturing report at a time when the government shutdown has muted official data, and we pull out the signals that matter: a weaker headline driven by softness in production and inventories, a prices paid index that fell to its lowest level of the year, and export orders that show a pulse even as supply frictions re-emerge.

We talk through what a drop in input costs could mean for the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight, and why the latest data doesn’t show tariffs driving a new wave of cost pressure. At the same time, we highlight a rise in backlogs and longer delivery times, the kinds of stress points we watched closely during the pandemic. Are these the first hints of renewed bottlenecks, or just monthly noise that will fade as logistics normalize? We explain how to read these components together so you can separate signal from static in a noisy market.

With production sagging, inventories lean, and exports firmer, the path ahead could split: either a cautious few months as managers stay defensive, or a restock bounce if orders stabilize. We map the indicators that will decide which path wins out, from follow-through in prices paid to confirmation in regional surveys and earnings commentary. If you want a clear, practical take on what the ISM is saying about growth, inflation, and risk, this breakdown gives you the context you need to stay ahead of the tape.

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Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

The Federal Reserve finally cut rates but their tone shocked Wall Street. Megan Horneman breaks down what the Fed really said, why markets might be too confident about more cuts, and what this means for inflation and investors heading into year-end 2025.

With the government still shut down and data in short supply, this surprise twist from the Fed could change everything.

#MarketsWithMegan #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #StockMarket #Investing #Economy2025 #MarketUpdate #FedRateCut #GovernmentShutdown

https://youtu.be/5u6RVUpikjI

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

Markets don’t pause just because official data does. With the government shutdown stretching on, we turn to the signals still flashing: ISM surveys, regional Fed reports, and futures pricing that point to a tricky mix of sticky services inflation and a softening job market. We share what we’re seeing behind the headlines, why services matter more than ever for your wallet, and how prices paid in both services and manufacturing complicate the path back to the Fed’s 2 percent target.

We walk through the latest reads from ISM Services at 69.4 on prices paid and ISM Manufacturing at 61.9, unpacking what those levels have historically meant for inflation. Then we compare the New York Fed Empire and Philadelphia Fed surveys, where input costs push higher while employment indicators sag. That tension is shaping rate expectations: markets now lean toward cuts at the late October and December meetings, betting the Fed will prioritize labor stability even as inflation lingers.

The heart of the conversation is expectations. When consumers believe prices will be higher in a few months, they buy early, demand tightens, and inflation gets a second wind. We talk about how the Fed’s tone can cool that loop without over-tightening growth, and why guidance about 2026 could anchor medium-term inflation expectations. If you’re watching interest rates, planning budgets, or managing risk, these signals help you navigate a noisy moment with clearer context.

Subscribe for more practical market breakdowns, share this episode with someone who tracks the Fed, and leave a quick review to tell us what you want decoded next.

https://youtu.be/CDJZVPBQjMU

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...