Silver crashed! Today we focus on a historic bout of volatility in precious metals following months of extreme, unhealthy gains. We figure out if the selloff was driven by the announcement of a new Fed chair or severe technical overextension, crowded positioning that triggered profit-taking, shorting, and forced de-risking. We also talked the implications of a potentially growth-leaning but inflation-conscious Fed, ongoing structural risks like debt, deficits, and sticky inflation, and why monetary policy alone can't solve them. We reviewed the January market performance, and noticed strength in energy, materials, commodities, and international equities versus lagging tech and software. Markets are rotating regimes, not ending trends, and investors should focus on risk management, diversification, and long-term planning rather than reacting emotionally to short-term chaos.

We discuss...

• We unpacked a historic spike in precious-metals volatility, with silver experiencing extreme, record-level swings after months of unsustainably rapid gains.
• The Fed chair news was described as a "match, not the bonfire," triggering a correction that was already statistically inevitable at extreme standard deviations.
• Volatility selling, options hedging, and large institutional short positioning likely amplified the downside move in silver.
• The gold-silver ratio had reached stretched levels, making a snapback or rebalancing between gold and silver unavoidable.
• Despite the violent correction, the broader precious-metals bull trend was viewed as intact rather than broken.
• Gold was described as healthier than silver due to steady institutional and central-bank buying.
• We covered how computers, systematic strategies, and risk managers now dominate market mechanics at volatility extremes.
• Rate cuts may come sooner than expected, but structural issues like debt, deficits, and sticky inflation remain unresolved.
• Markets so far reacted modestly outside of commodities, suggesting rotation rather than systemic stress.
• Energy and commodities were highlighted as key areas to watch in an inflation-sensitive environment.
• International equities significantly outperformed U.S. markets, reinforcing the case for global diversification.
• A small bank failure highlighted lingering credit and balance-sheet risks despite limited systemic impact.
• Midterm election seasonality was discussed as a potential source of higher volatility and uneven returns.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/silver-crashed-787

Jean-Baptiste Wautier is here to talk growing global debt and the impact on the economy. He draws on decades of private-equity and macro experience to discuss accelerating global change, arguing that rising debt, AI, and political polarization are reshaping the economic and geopolitical order.

We discuss Europe's recent market strength, China as an unavoidable, though risky, investment given its scale and AI ambitions, and gold and crypto as hedges rather than true currency alternatives. He also warms that global debt dynamics will force restructuring in places like Japan and parts of Europe, and concludes that AI is likely transformative but slower and more socially disruptive than markets assume, ultimately requiring a rethink of productivity, employment, and even how economic progress is measured.

We discuss...

• Jean-Baptiste Wautier argued that today's environment reflects an acceleration of long-term forces—debt accumulation, AI as a fourth industrial revolution, and rising political polarization—rather than a completely unprecedented moment.
• He suggested populism can be reversed without extreme disruption if governments deliver tangible economic fixes, citing Italy as an example of pragmatic reform restoring democratic confidence.
• Wautier emphasized that middle-class affordability, youth opportunity, and fiscal credibility are the core issues driving political instability in Western democracies.
• He criticized the lack of democratic oversight of central banks, arguing monetary policy has become too consequential to remain entirely insulated from public accountability.
• He believes there is no painless solution to global debt problems, with Europe facing unavoidable austerity while the U.S. may temporarily "get away with it" due to dollar dominance and capital inflows.
• Europe's recent market outperformance was described as a short-term valuation and diversification blip rather than a reflection of improving fundamentals.
• Wautier argued the dollar has no credible fiat challenger, reinforcing its dominance despite past U.S. policy mistakes.
• Gold and cryptocurrencies were discussed primarily as hedges against dollar risk rather than true replacements for the global reserve system.
• Bitcoin was criticized as too volatile to function as a reserve or transactional currency, regardless of its popularity as a speculative store of value.
• Stablecoins were viewed as a strategic U.S. response to crypto, potentially extending dollar dominance into digital finance.
• Demographic decline across developed economies was identified as a structural constraint that traditional growth models cannot easily resolve.
• Wautier argued AI adoption is moving faster than societies can adapt, limiting near-term productivity gains while increasing long-term disruption.
• AI's ultimate impact will be profound but slow, likely forcing a reassessment of GDP and other traditional measures of economic progress.

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/growing-global-debt-jean-baptiste-wautier-786

The global economy is shifting into a "run-it-hot" inflationary growth phase driven by political incentives, energy demand, and the need to manage unsustainable debt and here is how to profit on it. The U.S. is deliberately favoring high growth and persistent inflation to inflate away debt and support asset prices ahead of midterms, even as official data and climate narratives are treated with skepticism. Today we talk about how governments historically deal with excess debt, why inflation plus growth is the most politically viable path, and how this environment favors commodities, real assets, and cyclicals over overvalued big tech. Markets are rotating, not simply "risk-on/risk-off," so you should be wary against blindly sticking with what worked in the past. Stay flexible as policy volatility, geopolitical shifts, and changing economic forces reshape the investment landscape.

We discuss...

• Energy policy is rapidly shifting in favor of expansion as tech-driven demand makes energy security a political priority, sidelining prior climate and regulatory concerns.
• The "run-it-hot economy" framework argues the U.S. is intentionally pursuing high growth alongside persistent inflation to manage excessive sovereign debt and support asset prices.
• With midterms approaching, political incentives favor policies that keep markets strong, reduce visible costs like energy and housing, and maintain public confidence rather than fiscal austerity.
• Inflation and growth together are framed as the most realistic way for governments to inflate away debt without triggering default or severe political backlash.
• Historical economic regimes are outlined to show how different inflation and growth combinations favor different asset classes.
• The current environment resembles an inflationary boom, which historically benefits commodities, real assets, and stores of value.
• Big tech and innovation-led assets are seen as potential underperformers in an inflationary, rotational market after years of dominance.
• Market leadership is narrowing and rotating, with small caps, mid caps, and non-U.S. markets showing stronger early-year performance.
• The S&P 500's heavy concentration in a small number of tech stocks increases risk as leadership weakens.
• Investors are cautioned against blindly rebalancing or clinging to past winners without reassessing changing tailwinds and headwinds.
• Fraud reduction and spending audits may improve trust and optics but are unlikely to materially fix long-term debt problems.
• Energy's small weight in major indexes is highlighted as a potential mispricing given its economic importance.
• Seasonal market patterns suggest near-term volatility is likely even within a broader bullish rotation.
• Investors must adapt portfolios to evolving macro regimes rather than assume past strategies will continue to work.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/how-to-profit-785