Mortgage Morning — Friday, January 2, 2026

Axios 2026 outlook: Mortgage rates are broadly expected to stay around 6.3% in 2026, with affordability improving only modestly.

Named forecasts:

• Realtor.com: rates average 6.3%, home prices +2.2%, existing-home sales 4.13M (+1.7%), inventory +8.9%.
• Redfin: rates average 6.3%, median home-sale price +1%.

Regional divergence: Strength is increasingly concentrated in parts of the Northeast and Midwest, while some South/West markets face slower growth and more friction in new development.

Builders & supply: National builder numbers hide big regional differences; luxury and custom segments remain more resilient than entry-level.

HUD update: FHA set the 2026 HECM maximum claim amount at $1,249,125 (up from $1,209,750).

Mortgage Morning — Thursday, January 1, 2026

** HUD Secretary Scott Turner, speaking in a HousingWire interview, said more research is needed before pursuing 50-year mortgage terms, effectively cooling expectations around the idea.

** Turner emphasized the need for mortgage policies that are secure and sustainable, reflecting concern about long-term borrower outcomes and system-wide risk.

** The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate ended 2025 at 6.15%, the lowest weekly level of the year.

** Rocket Companies stock fell roughly 3.5% in year-end trading, signaling continued investor caution around mortgage platforms.

** Rental demand remains elevated in metros like Atlanta, Orlando, and Charlotte.

** Key dates ahead: Monday, January 5th (jobs report) and Friday, January 9th (CPI).

Mortgage Morning — Wednesday, December 31, 2025

1) A federal judge, Amy Berman Jackson, blocked the Trump administration’s attempt to defund the CFPB, rejecting Acting Director Russell Vought’s funding argument and preserving the agency’s operations.

2) The ruling sets up a February 2026 trial on whether the CFPB’s statutory funding mechanism can be disrupted when the Federal Reserve operates at a loss.

3) House Financial Services Committee Chairman Patrick McHenry signaled upcoming hearings on housing finance and regulatory uncertainty in early 2026.

4) Rocket stock outperformed on a down market day, suggesting shifting investor sentiment toward mortgage platforms heading into the new year & UWM disclosed late-December selling by a major holder, a positioning signal worth tracking in a tight liquidity environment.

Today’s focus: Fresh housing data and real-time market signals from the past 24 hours.

• Pending home sales surged in November, posting the strongest reading in nearly three years and beating expectations — a sign that buyers are re-engaging when conditions feel workable, even with elevated mortgage rates.

• Home price growth slowed sharply, with government data showing year-over-year appreciation at its weakest pace since 2012. Slower price growth eases affordability pressure and changes buyer psychology, even without a rate breakout.

• Banks tapped the Federal Reserve’s repo facility heavily at year-end, a reminder that liquidity conditions remain tight beneath the surface. Not a crisis signal, but an important piece of market plumbing to watch.

• Regional housing markets continue to diverge, with areas like upstate New York seeing fast sales and tight inventory, while buyers adapt by targeting smaller or older homes to manage affordability.

Topics covered this morning:

• Mortgage rates remain stable with the 30-year fixed around ~6.18%, influenced by bond market dynamics.
• Home values in some metros, like Miami, are declining — but equity remains for long-term holders.
• 2026 housing outlook shows affordability still constrained, though modest improvement may occur.
• Mortgage rate forecasts suggest only small shifts early next year — not dramatic breaks.
• Secondary market commentary suggests quiet bond sessions but rising repurchases and warehouse moves.

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