Three weeks ago, I wrote an article entitled Detangling Solution for the Economic Outlook in which I outlined a baseline forecast for 2026 and into 2027, amidst many distortions and entanglements in economic data and trends.

So much has happened since then, including a raft of new economic numbers, the Supreme Court’s decision on IEEPA tariffs, and, most seriously, the start of an all-out war in the Middle East, that it makes sense to go through the exercise again, or, as the marketers of hair products might say, “rinse and repeat”.

On Friday, the Supreme Court released a long-awaited decision, ruling that the President’s imposition of tariffs, using the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, otherwise known as IEEPA, was illegal. The President held a press conference that afternoon and issued a proclamation announcing a general 10% tariff on imported goods, using a different statute and promised to invoke a third set of statutes to replace the overturned tariffs on a more permanent basis. On Saturday, he announced that the 10% tariff rate was being raised to 15%.

Between taking a shower when I get up in the morning and another when I get home from running, I am a significant consumer of detangling solution. In my youth, an unruly shock of hair required liberal doses of the substance just to bring some order to my muppet-like locks. Today, sadly, the forest has thinned out, making detangling solution somewhat less necessary. However, with less to do up top, it would be nice if it could gently seep into my scalp, detangling some of the confusion beneath.