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Palladium's Promising Path: China Futures, Fed Moves, and Tariff Talks

Palladium's Promising Path: China Futures, Fed Moves, and Tariff Talks

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This is your Daily Palladium Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.

Hey everyone, welcome back to Daily Palladium Price Tracker with me, Vanessa Clark. I'm so glad you're here today because we've got some really interesting developments to talk about in the palladium market, and if you're thinking about precious metals or just curious about what's happening in commodities trading, you're in the right place.

So let's jump right into what's happening with palladium today. As of December first, palladium is trading around fourteen hundred forty-six dollars per troy ounce, and there's actually quite a bit of momentum behind the metal right now. We're seeing palladium up significantly over the past year, up about fifty-one percent compared to this same time last year, which is pretty impressive for a commodity that a lot of people don't think about every single day.

Now here's what's really interesting and what's driving some of this recent strength. China just launched palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange back on November twenty-seventh. This is a big deal because it gives industry participants new tools to hedge their positions and shows that there's real optimism about demand in China. At the same time, there's growing speculation that the Federal Reserve might take a more dovish approach at their December meeting, meaning they might cut interest rates or signal that cuts are coming, and that can be really bullish for commodities like palladium.

But here's the thing that traders are really watching right now. The US Department of Commerce is investigating critical minerals under something called Section two thirty-two, and there's also an anti-dumping petition that's been filed by a mining company called Sibanye and the United Steelworkers union. These investigations could lead to import tariffs, and that would significantly impact palladium prices. So in the near term, expect palladium to be pretty sensitive to whatever decision comes out of that investigation.

Now, palladium has actually had quite a journey. Year to date it's up about forty percent, which is solid, though it's lagging a little bit behind other precious metals like gold, silver, and platinum. Historically, palladium hit an all time high of thirty-four hundred forty dollars back in March of twenty twenty-two, but the reality is that the metal has faced some headwinds because of the shift toward electric vehicles. Palladium's primary use is in catalytic converters for gasoline cars, so as more people go electric, that demand pressure has been building.

Looking ahead, analysts are expecting a modest supply deficit to continue through twenty twenty-six, which could support prices. Some forecasters think palladium could trade around fourteen hundred sixty-six dollars by the end of this quarter, and potentially higher at sixteen hundred forty-six dollars in twelve months.

So here's my takeaway for you. If you're interested in diversifying your portfolio with precious metals beyond just gold, palladium offers interesting opportunity right now, especially with the new futures market in China and potential tariff implications that could affect supply. Keep an eye on that Commerce Department investigation because that's going to be a real price mover.

Thanks so much for tuning in to Daily Palladium Price Tracker. I'm Vanessa Clark, and I really appreciate you spending time with me today. Make sure to subscribe and tune in next time for more insights into the precious metals market. We'll see you soon.

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