Trump says he'll deTrump says he'll decide whether to strike Iran sometime in the next two weeks; while some of the biggest names in MAGA, like Tucker Carlson and Ted Cruz try to sway his choice. Pete Hegseth and Tulsi Gabbard are reportedly on the outs at the White House, Trump flip-flops on immigration enforcement at farms, federal agents handcuff more Democrats, and the Senate version of the Big, Beautiful Bill is even worse than we expected. Then, Jon and Dan discuss the growing mess at the DNC and what that could mean for next year's midterms. Later, Tommy sits down with Congressman Eric Swalwell to discuss ICE raids, Iran, fears lawmakers have for their safety, and more.

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Trump's long-planned birthday parade gets overshadowed by massive "No Kings" protests around the country and the cold-blooded murder of a prominent Minnesota lawmaker and her husband. Meanwhile, Israel launches a preemptive war against Iran—a war that Trump hasn't quite ruled out joining. Jon, Lovett, and Tommy discuss the weekend's competing optics, the deeply troubling rise of political violence in America, and the latest offering from the Trump family hucksters: a shiny gold smartphone from the newly founded Trump Mobile. Then, Jon talks with Maryland Governor Wes Moore about his political future, why he vetoed a reparations bill, and the role that governors can play in this dangerous moment.

How much of America would we need to mobilize to stop Trump's power grab? According to political scientist Erica Chenoweth, it takes 3.5 percent—the threshold after which every protest movement, across the world, has been successful. Against the backdrop of the anti-ICE and No Kings protests, the national guard deployment, and Donald Trump's birthday pageant, Chenoweth joins the show to break down the math of the 3.5 percent rule, explain why nonviolence is the key to meeting it, and to share the lessons the civil rights movement can teach us about staying unified, organized, and disciplined in the fight against authoritarianism.