The most consequential story remains Iran, where protests appear to be growing despite the regime shutting down the internet, a move that historically precedes lethal force. The scale of the demonstrations is difficult to verify, but the videos that do emerge suggest a population no longer content to absorb repression quietly. It is hard to separate this moment from the cascading effects of October 7, the regional dismantling of Hamas and Hezbollah, the fall of Syria, and the degradation of Iran’s military capacity. Whether this becomes a true regime crisis is unknown, but it is unquestionably the most important story in the world right now.

A Fatal ICE Encounter and a Nation Watching the Same Video Differently

Domestically, the killing of a 37 year old mother during an ICE operation in Minnesota has become a political Rorschach test. She was ordered out of her car, did not comply, put the vehicle in motion, and was shot by an ICE officer. Federal authorities have shut down any investigation, with Vice President J.D. Vance asserting absolute immunity. What is striking is not just the tragedy itself, but how confidently people draw opposite conclusions from the same footage. To Republicans, this is law enforcement under siege. To Democrats, it is evidence of authoritarian overreach. The incident hardens beliefs rather than persuading anyone new, which is precisely why it is politically potent.

Texas Democrats and a Brutal Primary Reality

The Texas Senate race continues to clarify in uncomfortable ways for Democrats. Reporting suggests Republican maneuvering helped nudge Jasmine Crockett into the race, and the stylistic contrast with James Talarico could not be sharper. Crockett is relentless and confrontational. Talarico’s first ad, by contrast, feels staged and overly polite. In a Texas Democratic primary, that is a problem. Style matters, and beating Crockett will require more than reasonableness. It will require a moment, a line, or a conflict that reframes the race entirely.

Affordability, Power, and Trump Unfiltered

Donald Trump’s affordability push continued with a pledge to direct the purchase of mortgage bonds to drive down rates, paired with earlier proposals to restrict large institutional buyers from the housing market. Whether these ideas work is secondary to the political intent. Trump wants to be seen doing something on costs. His two hour interview with The New York Times reinforced that worldview. He openly dismissed international law as a constraint, embraced coercive diplomacy, and framed power as its own justification. It was Trump without the volume turned all the way up, which may be the most revealing version of him.

Chapters:

00:00:00 - Intro

00:01:50 - Iran

00:04:20 - ICE

f00:11:59 - Texas Races

00:16:11 - Interview with Reese Gorman

00:52:23 - Update

00:52:46 - Mortgages

00:54:34 - Trump’s NYT Interview

00:56:54 - Tariffs

00:59:00 - Interview with Stella Tsantekidou

01:32:50 - Wrap-up

Maduro in Manhattan and the Legal Test Ahead

Former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, pleaded not guilty this week in federal court in Manhattan to sweeping charges that include narco terrorism, cocaine importation conspiracy, and weapons offenses. Maduro, who was captured by U.S. forces in Caracas, declared himself innocent and insisted he remains Venezuela’s legitimate president, framing his arrest as a kidnapping rather than a lawful apprehension. The arraignment itself was brief, with the next hearing scheduled for March. His legal team is already signaling a two-pronged defense focused on sovereign immunity and the circumstances of his capture.

What stands out to me is the venue. Trying this case in New York rather than Florida suggests prosecutors are being cautious about jury composition and procedural challenges. Whether that caution pays off is an open question. This case is going to test not only the strength of the evidence, but also how far U.S. courts are willing to go in asserting jurisdiction over a former head of state seized abroad. However it ends, it will be watched closely far beyond Venezuela.

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A Security Scare at the Vice President’s Home

A far quieter story, but a troubling one, emerged out of Cincinnati. A 26-year-old man was arrested after allegedly attempting to break into Vice President J.D. Vance’s home, smashing windows with a hammer, damaging a Secret Service vehicle, and trying to gain entry. Vance and his family were not home at the time, and law enforcement responded quickly. The suspect now faces multiple charges, including vandalism and criminal trespass.

These incidents rarely become more than brief news items, but they raise uncomfortable questions. The volume of unstable individuals the Secret Service has to manage is staggering, and this case highlights how thin the margins can be. It does not appear the suspect would have gotten as close if the vice president were present, but the fact that he got close at all is worth taking seriously. Political violence does not always announce itself loudly.

Klobuchar, Walz, and the Next Democratic Shuffle

Finally, after conversations I referenced earlier with Kirk, reporting now strongly suggests that Senator Amy Klobuchar is preparing to run for governor of Minnesota. According to local reporting, discussions with Tim Walz took place before his announcement, and Klobuchar would enter the race as the clear front runner. The timing is curious. She was reelected to the Senate not long ago, but this move starts to make sense if leadership changes are coming at the top of the Democratic Senate caucus and she is looking to avoid future internal battles.

The Minnesota angle also intersects with renewed scrutiny around the massive fraud scandal tied to Somali focused nonprofits. Reporting by Armin Rosen argues there is no evidence that Walz orchestrated or financially benefited from the fraud, though he may have been, in Rosen’s words, suspiciously incurious. If Klobuchar is indeed running, she gets executive experience, a relatively clean pivot point, and a chance to step sideways rather than down. In a party bracing for internal realignment, that kind of move feels increasingly rational.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:04:34 - Interview with Kirk Bado

00:28:41 - Justin and Kirk Talk Steelers

00:49:22 - Update

00:52:00 - Venezuela

00:53:13 - JD Vance

00:54:27 - Amy Klobuchar

00:58:04 - Interview with Andrew Zarian

01:55:42 - Wrap-up

The United States’ decision to seize Nicolás Maduro and bring him to New York marks one of the most dramatic assertions of American power in the Western Hemisphere in decades. In this episode, I focused on what actually happened, why it happened now, and what it signals about how the Trump administration views regime change, legality, and leverage.

The facts, as we know them, are stark. In a rapid operation lasting roughly two and a half hours, U.S. forces assisted federal authorities in arresting Maduro and removing him from Caracas. He now faces sweeping federal charges, including narco-terrorism conspiracy and large-scale cocaine trafficking tied to terrorist organizations and major cartels. The indictment is notable not just for its scope, but for what it omits. There is no fentanyl count. This reinforces what many analysts suspected: the recent pressure campaign against Venezuela, including interdictions at sea, was less about opioids and more about systematically strangling Maduro’s remaining sources of revenue until something broke.

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What broke appears to be internal loyalty. It is difficult to believe a head of state with military protection is removed this quickly without acquiescence from inside the regime. That reality shapes everything that comes next. Rather than immediately installing an opposition leader, the administration has left much of the existing government in place while asserting overwhelming control over money flows, shipping, and oil exports. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been careful to say the United States is not “running” Venezuela, while also making clear that the people still in charge have no meaningful freedom to act. This is not Iraq or Afghanistan. It more closely resembles Panama and the Noriega arrest: criminal charges paired with brute leverage, not nation building through occupation.

The unanswered question is whether this produces reform or simply swaps one strongman arrangement for another. Venezuela remains a petrostate with enormous reserves, crumbling infrastructure, and a population exhausted by corruption and repression. Removing Maduro may be morally satisfying and strategically defensible, but history offers little comfort about what follows. This is a high-risk bet that coercion can force democratic outcomes without igniting prolonged instability. Whether that gamble pays off, or whether it opens the door to a different kind of failure, is the story that now begins.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:04:16 - Maduro’s Arrest

00:11:51 - Marco Rubio

00:54:28 - Everyone Else

01:10:08 - Wrap-up

With the Sunday shows having pre-recorded the bulk of their conversations and the flow of news quieting down for the holidays, Justin sat down to answer your questions on a livestream held this past Sunday afternoon. Topics include: AI, the future of MAGA, journalism, politeness in politics, Marjorie Taylor Greene, (not) the Steelers-Browns game, and much more.

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This livestream has been lightly edited for brevity; the original version can be found on YouTube:

The Epstein files keep coming out, and instead of clarity, they are producing something far messier: suspicion without resolution and outrage without proof.

What we are seeing now is not the mythical document many people imagine, a clean list pairing powerful men with specific criminal acts. That list does not exist. What exists are FBI files and grand jury materials filled with allegations, some credible, some vague, many never fully investigated. The result is a widening cloud of suspicion over a long list of names, with no clear answers about who did what or why prosecutors failed to act when they had the chance.

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That ambiguity is why this release satisfies no one. New documents, like the bizarre and possibly fake letter to Larry Nassar attributed to Epstein after his death, only deepen confusion rather than resolve it. If the Trump administration delayed releasing these files out of fear of what they contained, that decision backfired badly. The slow drip has turned the Epstein case into a permanent Rorschach test, where everyone sees what they already believe. Until the Justice Department explains what it has, what it does not, and why accountability failed for so long, the Epstein story will remain unresolved and corrosive.

Chapters

00:00 - Intro

01:39 - Epstein

05:16 - Tevi Troy on Lame Duck Presidents

49:41 - Wrap-up

Donald Trump’s primetime address this week was far less dramatic than advertised, but far more revealing than it looked at first glance. Stripped of the rumors and speculation, the speech functioned as a quiet reset on the issue that matters most to his presidency: the economy.

Going into the address, expectations were wildly inflated. Cable chatter and online speculation had convinced many people that Trump was preparing to announce military action in Venezuela or unveil a sweeping foreign policy shift. Instead, the speech clocked in at just under 20 minutes and stayed tightly focused on affordability, inflation, and household pressure. That choice alone tells you where the White House believes its real vulnerability lies.

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Trump did something slightly out of character by acknowledging economic strain without declaring immediate victory. He framed the economy as a process rather than a finished product, arguing that recovery takes time and patience. That is a notable shift from his usual insistence that conditions are already excellent. It was not an apology, but it was an admission that voters are not wrong to feel squeezed.

Much of the address revolved around tariffs and tax policy, with Trump asking voters to accept short-term pain in exchange for long-term gain. He pitched tariffs as leverage that will eventually lower costs and increase domestic production, and he pointed to upcoming tax benefits tied to overtime, tips, and Social Security as proof that relief is coming. The problem is timing. Politically, promises that hinge on next year’s tax filings are hard to feel in the present, especially when prices remain high.

Trump’s instinct throughout the speech was still salesmanship. He moved quickly, spoke loudly, and leaned on confidence rather than detail. The strongest moments came when he attacked insurance companies and framed his agenda as a fight against corporate abuse. Those lines landed because they matched public frustration. The weaker moments were the familiar optimism that everything is already turning the corner. For voters who do not feel that turn yet, tone matters as much as substance.

This address was not about breaking news. It was about recalibration. Trump needed to re-anchor his presidency around the economy and away from foreign policy speculation, legal noise, and internal party drama. In that sense, the speech did its job. It lowered the temperature, narrowed the focus, and reminded supporters what they are supposed to be rooting for.

Still, a reset speech only works if reality cooperates. If affordability does not improve, no amount of rhetorical discipline will save the argument. This speech could have been shorter, and it certainly could have been written as a memo. But compared to the expectations of escalation and crisis, it was a deliberate attempt to sound grounded. Whether voters reward that restraint is the question that will define the year ahead.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:02:34 - Trump’s Affordability Speech

00:12:23 - Brian Brushwood on Empathy

00:28:53 - Update

00:29:19 - Marijuana

00:33:07 - Appropriations Package

00:34:00 - DNC 2024 Report

00:38:10 - Brian Brushwood on Empathy, con’t

01:01:32 - Wrap-up

On Tuesday, a sprawling two-part Vanity Fair piece built from more than a dozen interviews with Susie Wiles, President Trump’s chief of staff, dropped online. It is, without exaggeration, one of the most revealing portraits of an active White House power broker I can remember. Wiles describes Trump as having an “alcoholic’s personality,” a striking characterization given his lifelong teetotalism. Trump, notably, did not dispute it. He later confirmed the description himself, calling it aggressive, possessive, and myopic.

Wiles also took shots across the bow at several major figures. She labeled Elon Musk an “odd duck,” dismissed his politics, and triggered a very public response that included Musk taking a drug test near my own neighborhood to rebut claims of ketamine use. She endorsed JD Vance as the likely Republican nominee in 2028 while simultaneously describing his MAGA conversion as politically convenient. On Epstein, she confirmed Trump’s name appears in the files, contradicted Trump’s claims about Bill Clinton, and slammed Attorney General Pam Bondi’s handling of the document release as a total failure. These were not slips. They were deliberate disclosures from someone who understands power intimately.

Perhaps most telling was Wiles’s admission that some Trump-era prosecutions look vindictive and that Venezuelan boat strikes were intended to pressure Nicolás Maduro politically, not just disrupt drug trafficking. That level of candor is rare. It reframes policy decisions as leverage rather than law enforcement, and it explains why the article landed like a grenade inside Republican circles.

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A Cooling Jobs Market and a Complicated Economic Pitch

Away from the media drama, the November jobs report offered something for everyone but reassurance. Payrolls grew by 64,000 jobs, better than feared but far from robust. Unemployment climbed to 4.6 percent, the highest level in more than four years, signaling a labor market that is cooling but not collapsing. The Labor Department flagged unusual data uncertainty due to the government shutdown, muddying trend lines even further.

Supporters of the administration argue that private sector employment remains solid and that government job losses were inevitable given debt and deficits. Critics counter that Trump ran as the “economy man,” and this is not an economy that inspires confidence. Manufacturing and professional services continue to contract, while gains are concentrated in health care and education. The Fed’s recent rate cut looks justified, but the promised “golden age” is difficult to sell when affordability remains front and center for voters.

A Prime-Time Address and the Politics of the Moment

All of this sets the stage for Trump’s prime-time address from the White House, scheduled for Wednesday night. Officially, there is no news hook. Unofficially, this looks like a straight-to-camera year-in-review and year-ahead speech, a nakedly political address designed to reset the narrative as he approaches the midpoint of his second term. If there were a major announcement, such as a Russia-Ukraine breakthrough or a stimulus package, it would not stay secret. The absence of leaks suggests there is no surprise coming.

At the same time, Speaker Mike Johnson is facing an internal revolt over expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies. Moderates in swing districts are desperate for a vote they can point to, even if it fails. Hardliners insist on abortion-related restrictions tied to the Hyde Amendment, and leadership is frozen. With discharge petitions circulating and Trump’s own political strength under scrutiny, Johnson’s power is only as strong as Trump’s grip on the conference. Right now, that grip looks uncertain.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:01:23 - Susie Wiles in Vanity Fair

00:04:49 - Kirk Bado on Susie Wiles

00:35:30 - Update

00:37:14 - Jobs Report

00:39:43 - Trump’s Primetime Address Announcement

00:44:04 - Mike Johnson and the ACA

00:50:37 - Kirk Bado on Nuzzi/Lizza and More

01:13:57 - Wrap-up