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Soybean Surge: China Tariff Truce, Weather Watch & What's Next

Soybean Surge: China Tariff Truce, Weather Watch & What's Next

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This is your Daily Soybeans Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.

Welcome back to the Daily Soybeans Price Tracker. I’m Vanessa Clark and today is Wednesday, November fifth, two thousand twenty-five. If you want to stay on top of everything happening in the world of soybeans, you’re in the right place. Let’s get into the latest soybean prices, what’s driving the market today, and what you should keep an eye on going forward.

First up, here’s the number everyone is watching. The current trading price for January soybeans closed today at eleven dollars and thirty-four and a quarter cents per bushel. That’s up twelve and three-quarter cents on the day, and it’s the first time we’ve seen soybean futures stay above the eleven dollar mark since early July of last year. According to Trading Economics, soybeans are up almost ten percent this month and over twelve percent compared to this time last year. This recent run means soybeans have rallied more than a dollar in the past two weeks, which is a pretty significant move.

So what’s fueling this rally? It’s a mix of international trade headlines, shifting weather conditions, and market speculation. One of the biggest stories is the renewed optimism around US soybean exports thanks to an improving trade relationship with China. The White House recently announced that China has agreed to suspend all tariffs put in place since March twenty twenty-four on US soybeans and agricultural products. Under this new agreement, China is set to purchase at least twelve million tons of US soybeans by the end of the year, with a minimum of twenty-five million tons annually for the next three years. This has definitely given the market a serious shot in the arm.

At the same time, there are reports that Bangladesh has agreed to buy one billion dollars’ worth of US soybeans this year, which is more than three times what they bought in twenty twenty-four. That’s a major vote of confidence in US beans on the global stage.

On the supply side, there's a lot of talk about weather in South America. While their soybean planting is keeping pace with the five-year average, analysts are keeping an eye on some dry pockets in Brazil and Argentina. If those conditions worsen, it could tighten global supply, putting even more upward pressure on prices.

Meanwhile, back in the US, harvest weather is looking stable, and farmers are wrapping up the season. However, traders are already looking ahead to the next USDA Crop Production Report coming out on November fourteenth, which could shake up the markets depending on what it says about yields and production totals.

For you as a farmer, processor, or just a keen market watcher, here are a few actionable takeaways. First, if you’ve got soybeans still to market, these higher prices might represent a good opportunity to price at least a portion of your crop ahead of potential volatility from the upcoming USDA report. If you’re in the agribusiness supply chain, keep monitoring export developments with China and potential disruptions in South America, especially Brazil and Argentina. Finally, if you’re just someone watching the soy market, know that prices can turn quickly—so even with this rally, keep your risk management strategies in place.

That wraps up another episode of Daily Soybeans Price Tracker. Thanks for joining me, Vanessa Clark, for your daily dose of soybean market news. Make sure to subscribe if you haven’t already, so you never miss an update. Tune in tomorrow for more insights and the latest soybean prices. Have a great day and happy trading.

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