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Soybean Surge: China's Back, but Brazil's a Threat

Soybean Surge: China's Back, but Brazil's a Threat

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This is your Daily Soybeans Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.

Hey everyone, welcome back to Daily Soybeans Price Tracker. I'm your host Vanessa Clark, and I'm so glad you're here with me today. We've got some really interesting market movements to discuss as we head into the weekend, so stick around.

Let's jump right into what's happening with soybean prices today. November soybeans are trading higher at eleven dollars and thirty four cents per bushel, and the entire soy complex is showing some solid strength as we move through midday trading. The cash bean price is also up, trading at ten dollars and seventy three cents, which represents a gain of over twelve and a half cents. That's some meaningful movement for producers to pay attention to.

Now, a lot of this action is tied to the USDA Supply and Demand report that just came out today. This was the first major data release from the USDA since that forty three day government shutdown that began back in September, so traders have been waiting to see what adjustments the agency would make. The report included updates on production figures and export data that has been accumulating since the shutdown began.

Here's what's really important for you as a soybean market participant. China is now back in the picture as a buyer. Under a deal with the White House announced on November first, China has committed to purchasing at least twelve million metric tons of US soybeans over the last two months of this year, and then at least twenty five million metric tons in each of the next three years. This is significant because China hadn't purchased soybeans from the United States for the entire current marketing year, which started back in September.

However, there's definitely a competitive situation brewing. Brazilian soybeans continue to offer better value, especially with the thirteen percent tariff still applied to US beans. Argentina's soybean planting is now about twelve point nine percent complete with good soil moisture, so the competition from South America remains intense. Traders are watching closely to see if Chinese purchases stay strong or if buyers continue gravitating toward cheaper South American supplies.

The USDA has also forecast soybean exports of one point six four billion bushels for the twenty twenty five to twenty twenty six marketing year, down fifty million bushels from their October forecast. While we should see higher shipments to China for the rest of the marketing year, those gains could be offset by reductions to other markets where the US no longer has the significant price advantage we once enjoyed.

Looking ahead, keep your eye on NOPA's October crush report coming out on Monday, with pre report estimates sitting at a record two hundred nine point five million bushels for the month. That's going to be important for understanding demand dynamics.

So here's the bottom line for your operation. Soybeans are showing strength today, current prices are holding up in the eleven thirty to eleven forty range, and that China agreement is providing some fundamental support. But stay alert to international competition and keep monitoring those South American crop conditions because they're going to influence your pricing opportunities going forward.

Thanks so much for tuning in to Daily Soybeans Price Tracker. I really appreciate you spending this time with me. Be sure to subscribe and come back tomorrow for more market insights and pricing updates. This is Vanessa Clark, and I'll talk to you next time.

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