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Soybeans Soar: China's Back, Brazil's Booming, What's Next?

Soybeans Soar: China's Back, Brazil's Booming, What's Next?

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This is your Daily Soybeans Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.

Hello and welcome back to the Daily Soybeans Price Tracker. I’m Vanessa Clark, and today is Monday, November seventeenth, twenty twenty-five. Whether you’re a grower, trader, food manufacturer, or just someone curious about the ups and downs of global agriculture, I’m here to keep you updated every weekday on everything that matters in soybeans—prices, markets, news, and some practical tips to help you make sense of it all.

Let’s jump right in with today’s headline numbers, because the big story is movement. Soybean futures are up sharply to start the week. This afternoon, January soybean contracts jumped twenty-two cents, trading at eleven dollars and forty-six and a half cents per bushel. That’s one of the biggest rallies in recent weeks, and it’s helped reverse nearly all the losses from last Friday. Over in the spot market, the January bid reached eleven dollars and fifty-two and a quarter cents, up twenty-eight cents from yesterday. And if you’re following cash markets closely, the national cash price is up to ten dollars and seventy-eight cents and a quarter, which puts us at the highest levels for soybeans in over a year.

So, what’s fueling the rally? Rumors are circulating that China has started booking more U.S. soybeans after months of near-zero purchases due to trade tensions. Traders are watching for official “flash sale” announcements later this week. You might recall that the USDA recently released a backlog of export data, showing that China had bought only twelve million bushels during the shutdown. In a recent deal, China committed to buying twelve million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in just the last two months of this year, and at least twenty-five million tons annually going forward through twenty twenty-eight. This agreement is bringing welcome relief to American growers—even if total exports are projected to be thirty-three percent lower than last year—and it’s providing much needed support to prices at the close of harvest.

On the global front, Brazil is still dominating the export stage. With Chinese purchases from the U.S. just resuming, Brazil shipped a record seventy-nine million metric tons of soybeans to China just this year—already beating last year’s total. Farmers there are planting the twenty twenty-six crop now, and acreage is up about three and a half percent from last season. Argentina is also in the mix, with its second largest planted area in five years, despite a slight shift toward more corn and sunflowers.

That means competition across South America is still strong, and even with China’s renewed buying, the pressure on U.S. producers remains. It’s important to remember, though, that sales are diversifying, with increased shipments to markets like Thailand, Bangladesh, Morocco, Mexico, Egypt, and Italy.

Looking ahead, traders are keeping a close eye on daily export data, flash sales, and what happens next in China, because that’s likely to sway prices day to day and even week to week. If you’re a farmer, that means staying nimble, watching cost structures, and following reliable market updates is more important than ever. For buyers and processors, today’s takeaway is to factor in potential market volatility into your purchasing decisions—a sudden price rally can mean higher input costs, but might also mean opportunities if you watch for dips.

That about wraps up today’s Soybeans Price Tracker. Thanks so much for joining me. Be sure to subscribe so you never miss an update, and tune in tomorrow for the latest news, price action, and tips to keep you ahead of the curve. I’m Vanessa Clark. Thanks for listening, and have a great evening.

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