Oil settles about $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022 after Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei pledges to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent say the U.S. Navy will be helping to escort tankers out of the Gulf once military conditions are met. The U.S. government has sought to further ease prices by lifting sanctions on Russian oil already in transit. Russia’s ambassador to the United Kingdom, Andrey Kelin, tells CNBC that Russia stands by Iran and that the U.S. and its allies are solely to blame for the Gulf crisis. Rate cut expectations are dampened as concerns over a prolonged conflict send the dollar and yields higher while equities fall into the red.

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Oil prices have pulled back from $100 a barrel following several attacks on merchant vessels in the Gulf. Two tankers have been reportedly attacked overnight in Iraqi waters. The IEA announces its largest strategic reserve release of 400m barrels but energy markets remain wary. President Trump and the IEA’s Fatih Birol vow to keep oil flowing. The White House launches a probe into several key trading partners including the EU and China which, under section 301, permit tariffs to counter unfair commerce practices. And in autos news, BMW enjoys a Q4 earnings beat despite tariffs affecting its FY guidance.

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Oil prices swing after the White House says the U.S. Navy did not escort a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. The denial corrected a now-deleted social media post by Energy Secretary Chris Wright. The IEA reportedly proposes the largest-ever release of oil reserves as the Iran conflict continues to restrict the movement of global supplies. In autos news, Porsche narrowly misses FY sales expectations and says it will now streamline itself, pivoting away from EVs and overhauling its product line-up. Meanwhile, Renault Group CEO, François Provost, tells CNBC he still believes electric cars are the future.

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U.S. President Donald Trump hails the war effort in Iran as ‘very complete’ and has suggested some oil sanctions could be eased to shore up confidence in the market. However, Trump warned Iran could be struck even harder should it attempt to further disrupt supply. G7 energy ministers are set to discuss a potential release of strategic oil reserves. The U.S. is reportedly planning for up to 3-4 million barrels to be made jointly available. Aramco CEO Amin Nasser has warned of ‘catastrophic consequences’ should the conflict continue to disrupt supply. And in autos news, Volkswagen falls short of FY sales expectations but predicts margin improvements in 2026.

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Oil prices surge to almost $120bbl overnight before falling back to $108bbl. President Trump says he does not believe the market shock will be prolonged. The G7 reportedly considers a joint release of oil from strategic reserves while reports suggest that Saudi Aramco may offer oil on the spot market. The Nikkei and Kospi lead Asian equity losses while Europe and Wall Street look set for continued sell-off pressure. Iran has chosen Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father, Ali, as the country’s Supreme Leader to defy President Trump selection wishes.

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After six days of conflict in the Middle East, President Trump says the Iranian regime is desperate to end the fighting but the country’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, refutes the claims. Washington provides India with a 30-day waiver to buy Russia oil in a bid to settle global supply concerns and stabilise rising energy prices with U.S. crude trading at just over $80bbl. We hear from Bundesbank President and ECB governing council member Joachim Nagel who says the impact of the war in Iran is showing early signs of economic strain in Europe.

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Global equities stage an impressive comeback as traders absorb fears about the conflict in Middle East. Tech and chip stocks lead the way in Asia with South Korea’s Kospi rebounding to potentially posting its best session in 18 years. Crude also claws back losses despite concerns of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. has vowed to protect tankers passing through the Persian Gulf. In Europe, futures are cautious with the Stoxx 50 set to open more than 1 per cent lower. At the NPC in Beijing, the CCP sets its lowest growth outlook in more than three decades, citing ‘severe strain’ on free trade and the global economic forecast.

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Equity markets in Asia nose-dive with South Korea’s Kospi posts its worst session in history. Conflict in the Middle East intensifies fears of inflation causing investors to dump tech and semiconductor stocks. The U.S. and Israel continue to strike Iran with notable damage to IRGC headquarters and the Islamic Revolutionary Court in Tehran. President Trump has raised questions over who would succeed the Islamic regime. Trump has also offered to provide risk insurance for vessels using the Persian Gulf and said the U.S. Navy would help escort them out of the Strait of Hormuz in a bid to ease climbing global oil and gas prices.

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