Strategy on Shift4 Payments (FOUR) Buy Playbook
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Strategy on Shift4 Payments (FOUR) Buy Playbook
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This episode details an opportunistic investment strategy for ShiftFour Payments Inc. (FOUR), modeled explicitly after the high-conviction value investing style of Michael Burry, focused on a 3–5 year time horizon. The strategy emphasizes mean reversion and accumulating shares when the valuation is compressed and market sentiment is weak, viewing the company as a growing mid-cap with an asymmetric return profile. The approach dictates establishing a long-term core position that is never fully sold, while a satellite portion is traded around this core by aggressively trimming small gains (5–15% pops) and subsequently reloading heavily on sharp pullbacks (10–25% drops). This continuous trading cycle aims to reduce the average cost basis and maximize profit from short-term volatility without jeopardizing the multi-year growth thesis. The document concludes with a comprehensive playbook, offering specific rules for layered accumulation, profit taking, and recognizing fundamental red flags that would necessitate a complete exit.