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Sugar Glut: Bittersweet Times for Producers and Shoppers

Sugar Glut: Bittersweet Times for Producers and Shoppers

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This is your Daily Sugar Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.

Welcome back to the Daily Sugar Price Tracker. I am Vanessa Clark, here with today’s essential update on sugar prices, the market outlook, and what you need to know to stay ahead in the world of commodities.

Let us start with the current trading price for sugar. As of today, Monday, November tenth, two thousand twenty five, raw sugar futures are up one point one two percent and trading at about fourteen point two six cents per pound. This marks a small rebound after what has been a very challenging few weeks for sugar, with prices dropping to their lowest point in five years, recently dipping just below fourteen point three cents per pound on November sixth according to Trading Economics. White sugar futures are also on the move, trading around four hundred twelve dollars and sixty cents per ton, a slight uptick from last week but still stuck in a broader downward trend.

Now, why are sugar prices so low right now? It is mainly a story of oversupply. We are seeing record harvests in Brazil, India, and Thailand. With Brazil alone expected to produce nearly forty five million metric tons of sugar this season, and India and Thailand also turning out bumper crops, the world is flush with sugar. On top of that, lower crude oil prices have made it less profitable to turn sugarcane into ethanol, pushing producers to focus even more on sugar output, which just adds to the supply glut.

There was a brief window of optimism in the market just in the past few days. Hopes of a resolution to the United States government shutdown injected a sense of risk appetite back into commodity markets, including sugar. The US Senate took steps on November ninth to end the forty day shutdown, and the potential for some stability powered a short-lived rally across the board. We also saw talk out of India about allowing a modest amount of sugar exports this season, around one point five million metric tons, which gave a slight lift to market sentiment. But, looking at the fundamentals, the market still faces more sugar than it can consume.

What does all of this mean for the outlook on sugar prices? Most analysts remain bearish for the months ahead. There will likely be continued downward pressure on prices unless we see something dramatic, like a major crop failure or a sharp reversal in government policy or oil prices. Trading Economics projects sugar sliding further, possibly hitting thirteen point nine six cents per pound by the end of this year, and even dipping to around twelve point nine nine cents per pound by this time next year. That means we are in for a period of low prices and tough margins for producers, but a potential boon for food makers and consumers.

If you are an investor, a trader, or just someone who wants to understand what is happening at the grocery store, here are some practical takeaways. Track crop conditions in Brazil, India, and Thailand closely. Watch government policy announcements, especially around sugar export quotas and ethanol programs. Pay attention to oil prices, as they influence whether sugarcane is sold for food use or fuel. And keep an eye out for any surprise weather events, like La Nina, that could shake up this otherwise oversupplied market.

Thanks for joining me for today’s Daily Sugar Price Tracker. Be sure to subscribe, share with a friend who cares about food prices, and tune in next time for the latest market movers and sugar insights. I am Vanessa Clark, wishing you a sweet day until we talk again.

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This content was created in partnership and with the help of Artificial Intelligence AI
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