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Sugar Prices Hit Record Lows as Global Glut Grows

Sugar Prices Hit Record Lows as Global Glut Grows

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This is your Daily Sugar Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.

Hello and welcome to the Daily Sugar Price Tracker. I’m Vanessa Clark, and today is Thursday, November 6, 2025. If you’ve ever wondered what’s really going on with the worldwide price of sugar or just want a quick catch-up on market trends and supply news, you’re in the right place.

Let’s jump straight in with the most recent numbers. According to Trading Economics and several major market analysts, sugar futures closed today at around fourteen point one one cents per pound. That’s a slight decrease from the previous day, continuing a month-long decline that’s seen sugar prices fall by over fifteen percent just in the last four weeks and more than thirty-six percent from this time last year. For anyone watching these daily moves, this puts sugar trading near its lowest point since December twenty twenty, and marks a dramatic shift from last year’s higher prices.

So why the steep drop? The answer is big, global, and all about supply. Strong harvests in Brazil, India, and Thailand have pushed global output up. Brazil is leading the charge, with its twenty twenty-five to twenty twenty-six sugar production estimated at around forty-five million metric tons—a new record, according to Brazil's crop forecasting agency and corroborated by other sources. In India, the Indian Sugar Mills Association and meteorological department are forecasting a bumper crop for the new season, driven by abundant monsoon rains and larger planted acreage. Thailand’s sugar production is also on the rise, projected to hit ten point five million tons this year.

With those numbers, it’s no surprise global supply is outpacing demand. Research firms like StoneX and Czarnikow say global production will exceed consumption by nearly three million tons in the marketing year that started in October, swinging the market from a deficit last season to a surplus this one. When major producers ramp up output this much, prices naturally come under pressure.

Another twist comes from the biofuel market. Brazil’s corn ethanol industry is expanding rapidly, making corn-based ethanol cheaper to produce than traditional sugarcane ethanol. As mills shift more cane to sugar production instead of ethanol, the surplus grows even larger. India is also expected to divert less sugar to ethanol this year due to lower oil prices, which could push even more sugar onto world markets and further depress prices.

Looking ahead, forecasts point to sugar remaining weak for the next few months. Analysts expect prices to hold near their current lows and potentially trend slightly lower into next year if these harvests come in as strong as predicted.

For those of you in food manufacturing, hospitality, or just keeping an eye on your grocery bills, there could be some benefits. Lower prices may mean cheaper input costs and stable retail prices for sugar-containing products. But if you’re a sugar producer or trader, this glut might mean tighter margins and cautious moves in the months ahead.

That wraps up today’s snapshot. I’m Vanessa Clark, and this has been your Daily Sugar Price Tracker. If you found this episode helpful, be sure to subscribe and join us tomorrow for the latest updates on the sugar market. Thanks for listening, take care, and stay sweet.

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