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Sugar Slump: Surplus Sours Market as Brazil & India Crops Soar

Sugar Slump: Surplus Sours Market as Brazil & India Crops Soar

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This is your Daily Sugar Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.

Welcome to the Daily Sugar Price Tracker. I am Vanessa Clark, and as always, I am here to bring you the latest news, analysis, and actionable insights on the global sugar market to help you stay ahead in your trading or business decisions.

Let us start with today’s headline number. As of this afternoon, the March New York world sugar contract, also known as Sugar Number Eleven, is trading at fourteen point three four cents per pound. That is near a five-year low, reflecting the persistent pressure from expectations of a global sugar surplus. According to ICE’s Sugar Number Eleven futures data, this is more than thirty percent lower than where we were a year ago. The story is similar for white sugar, where the March contract on the London exchange is also trending lower.

What is driving these lows? It is all about supply. The International Sugar Organization reported on Monday that a global sugar surplus of about one point six million metric tons is forecast for the 2025-2026 season. This is a sharp reversal from last year’s deficit and is largely due to bigger crops out of India, Thailand, and Brazil. Brazil’s sugar production, according to the latest data, is expected to hit a record forty-five million metric tons this marketing year, as sugarcane mills continue to favor sugar over ethanol production. India’s revised forecasts now point to sugar output climbing to thirty-one million metric tons, which is nearly nineteen percent more than last year. Plus, the association cut their estimate for sugarcane being diverted to ethanol, freeing up even more for the market.

For those tracking prices, this flood of supply is the main reason we have seen raw sugar futures tumble over the last month. Market analysts at Expana report that the most recent futures value is almost thirteen percent below where it stood just thirty days ago. The situation is so stark that some in the market are wondering how much lower prices can go before production incentives start to slip.

What does this mean for your bottom line? If you are a buyer, these lower prices could be an opportunity to lock in purchases at multi-year lows. However, keep an eye on weather updates from Brazil and India. While the surplus story is dominating now, any disruptions from heavy rains or swings in ethanol policy could tighten the market and lead to quick reversals.

Another point for industry professionals: global demand is still expected to grow, albeit slowly. The United States Department of Agriculture projects worldwide human sugar consumption to rise about one point four percent this year, hitting almost one hundred seventy-eight million metric tons. So, while supply is plentiful for now, things could shift if crop conditions change or consumption outpaces the most recent forecasts.

Let us wrap up with a quick actionable takeaway. If you are in procurement or produce food and beverage products, you might consider reviewing your contracts and supply chain hedges while prices remain depressed. On the other side, if you are a producer, these market conditions highlight the need for efficiency and perhaps greater flexibility in shifting between sugar and ethanol production as margins dictate.

That is your daily roundup on the global sugar market. Thank you for joining me, Vanessa Clark, on the Daily Sugar Price Tracker. Make sure you subscribe, share the show with your colleagues, and tune in next time for all the latest on sugar prices and market moves. Have a sweet day and see you soon.

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This content was created in partnership and with the help of Artificial Intelligence AI
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