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Sweet Surplus: Brazil and India's Sugar Shake-Up Sends Prices Tumbling

Sweet Surplus: Brazil and India's Sugar Shake-Up Sends Prices Tumbling

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This is your Daily Sugar Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.

Hey everyone, welcome back to Daily Sugar Price Tracker. I'm Vanessa Clark, and today we're diving into what's happening in the global sugar market right now. If you've been paying attention to commodity prices lately, you know sugar has been on quite a rollercoaster, and today we've got some really important updates to break down.

Let's start with where prices are sitting today. As of November eleventh, sugar is trading at fourteen point twenty-eight cents per pound, up just slightly from yesterday. Now, I know that might not sound like much, but here's the thing that matters: we're looking at prices that are down eight point five four percent just in the past month alone. Year to date, sugar is down a massive thirty-three percent. We're essentially at prices we haven't seen since twenty twenty, and that tells you something significant is happening in this market.

So what's driving these lower prices? The answer comes down to one word: surplus. The global sugar market is facing an expected surplus for the twenty twenty-five twenty twenty-six season, and it's all because of what Brazil and India are doing. These are the world's two largest sugar producers, and they're making a strategic shift that's shaking up the entire market.

Here's what's happening on the ground. In Brazil, sugar mills are actually wrapping up their harvests earlier than usual, and they're changing their production mix. Instead of dedicating all their sugarcane to sugar, they're now directing more than fifty percent of their cane toward ethanol production. Why? Because ethanol prices are outperforming the struggling sugar market right now. It's pure economics. When ethanol is more profitable than sugar, mills follow the money.

In India, the situation is a bit different but equally impactful. Heavy rainfall has affected the sugar content of their crops, which has actually lowered production forecasts. But that's not enough to offset what Brazil is doing.

Now, here's where it gets really interesting from a market perspective. Earlier this month, Datagro, a major agricultural research firm, actually cut its forecast for the global sugar surplus dramatically. They're now estimating the surplus at just one million metric tons for the twenty twenty-five twenty twenty-six season. That's down from their previous estimate of two point eight million metric tons. That's a huge correction, and it's mainly because of these production decisions we're seeing from Brazil and India.

But even with that adjustment, the market remains under pressure. The reality is we've got ample supply coming from multiple sources. Thailand has had favorable harvest prospects following good monsoon rains. Even with slightly tighter conditions than initially expected, the world still has plenty of sugar.

Looking ahead, what should you be watching? Keep an eye on how Brazilian mills continue to manage their sugar to ethanol ratios. Monitor India's monsoon patterns and their crop development. And watch commodity cyclicality. According to market analysts, while sugar prices could continue lower in the near term, eventually we'll hit a bottom where production becomes less economically viable, inventories decline, and prices stabilize.

The takeaway for today: sugar prices are near multi-year lows at fourteen point twenty-eight cents per pound, driven by expected global surplus conditions and strategic production shifts from the world's leading producers. The market is under pressure, but that doesn't mean prices can't find a floor.

Thanks so much for tuning in to Daily Sugar Price Tracker. I'm Vanessa Clark. Be sure to subscribe so you don't miss our next episode where we'll continue tracking these critical commodity movements. We'll be back tomorrow with the latest price action and market insights. Take care, and I'll talk to you soon.

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