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Sweet Surplus: India's Export Move Shakes Up Sugar Markets

Sweet Surplus: India's Export Move Shakes Up Sugar Markets

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This is your Daily Sugar Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.

Welcome back to the Daily Sugar Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark. I’m Vanessa, and thank you so much for tuning in. Today is Friday, November 14, twenty twenty five, and I’ve got all the latest sugar market moves, supply updates, and practical tips for anyone keeping an eye on this essential commodity.

Let’s kick things off with the big number everyone wants. As of today, the current trading price for raw sugar sits around fourteen point eight cents per pound, which is up almost three percent from yesterday. Now, if you’ve been watching the charts, you know that's actually a two-week high after sugar spent much of the last month sliding lower and even hitting its lowest point since December twenty twenty. In fact, over the past thirty days, sugar prices have dropped by nearly six percent and are down over thirty percent compared to a year ago. Historically, sugar peaked at sixty-five cents per pound back in nineteen seventy-four, but today we’re seeing prices near levels not seen in over four years.

What’s behind these ups and downs? The biggest factor right now is global supply. Brazil, India, and Thailand have all reported strong harvests, leading to a predicted worldwide surplus for the current marketing year, which kicked off in October. Earlier this week, market analyst Datagro lowered its forecast for the global sugar surplus to just one million tons, down from nearly three million. That’s a sign that the surplus might not be as big as some feared, but it’s still enough to weigh on prices.

India made headlines again this morning when its food ministry said they’ll allow exports of one and a half million metric tons of sugar this season, below what many had expected. Last year, bad weather cut production, but this season’s outlook is improved—there’s even talk that more sugar could be heading for export markets if domestic conditions stay strong. This move bumped prices up, at least temporarily, since India is such a massive player in the global market.

Brazil, meanwhile, continues to pump out record amounts of sugar, with their main crop agency raising production estimates just this week. In Brazil’s Center-South region alone, sugar output jumped more than sixteen percent compared to last year. All that extra supply keeps prices under pressure despite occasional rebounds like today’s.

For anyone buying sugar for your bakery, factory, or even just home use, what does this mean in practice? If you’re price-sensitive, now’s a good time to keep an eye on the market. While prices have rebounded in the short term, long-term forecasts point lower, with analysts expecting sugar to slip closer to thirteen cents per pound by the end of the quarter and potentially dip below thirteen cents within the next year. If your budget depends on stable prices, consider locking in supply contracts soon, or at least monitoring market news closely.

Quick tip for small business owners and growers: watch the news for export policy updates, especially from India and Brazil, as these can move prices fast. Also, weather reports matter—a dry spell in key growing regions, or sudden policy changes, can nudge prices higher in just days.

On a more local note, some countries are making big strides toward sugar self-sufficiency. Take Kyrgyzstan, for example. In twenty twenty four, farmers there doubled down on sugar beet production. The country covered its entire domestic sugar demand with local crops and aims to ramp up even more by twenty thirty. If you’re interested in how global trends affect local markets, these developments are worth watching.

Alright, that wraps up today’s episode of the Daily Sugar Price Tracker. I hope you found the news and tips helpful. Be sure to subscribe and join me again tomorrow for another update on sugar prices, market trends, and how these changes can affect you. Thanks for listening, and remember—keep it sweet!

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This content was created in partnership and with the help of Artificial Intelligence AI
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