In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam dives into the intricacies of U.S. consumer spending as the holiday season approaches. Joined by Michael Zdinak, Ph.D., a director in S&P Global's U.S. economics team, Kristen explores the current economic landscape following a recent government shutdown and its impact on vital economic data.

Kristen and Michael discuss the resilience of consumer spending—despite low consumer sentiment—highlighting the factors driving spending behaviors among different income groups. They analyze retail sales trends, the significance of Black Friday, and the growing share of online shopping in holiday sales.

Listeners will gain insights into inflation's effects on purchasing power and the expected growth in holiday sales, alongside a nuanced understanding of how consumers are navigating their financial realities this season. Tune in for a comprehensive overview of the U.S. economy as we head into the holidays.

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• The Age of Agility: Key Themes for 2026
• Global Economic Outlook: November 2025
• Widening China import-export imbalance soaking up container capacity

For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

• 2026: The age of agility
• Inflation indications

Credits:

• Host: Kristen Hallam
• Guest: Michael Zdinak
• Produced By: Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

In this episode of the Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam engages with economists from S&P Global Market Intelligence to unpack the U.S. economic outlook for 2026. The discussion explores key themes influencing growth, including the economic impact of artificial intelligence, evolving labor market dynamics, and the ongoing effects of tariffs on inflation and investment.

Listeners will gain insights into the team's optimistic projections for 2026, driven by reduced policy uncertainty and consumer spending bolstered by recent tax cuts. The economists also address potential headwinds to growth, such as high borrowing costs and the implications of a government shutdown on economic performance.

As the Federal Reserve navigates these challenges, the discussion explores monetary policy decisions, including expectations for rate cuts and the anticipated adjustments in response to inflationary pressures.

With expert analysis and forward-looking perspectives, this episode equips listeners with the knowledge to make informed decisions in a complex economic landscape.

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• The Age of Agility: Key Themes for 2026
• Global Economic Outlook: November 2025
• Stablecoins Explained: A Comprehensive FAQ Guide to Digital Currency Stability

For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

• 2026: The age of agility
• Inflation indications
• US tariff plans

Credits:

• Host: Kristen Hallam
• Guests: Ben Herzon, Patrick Newport, Michael Zdinak, Lawrence Nelson
• Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

If 2025 was a year of seismic shifts, 2026 will be a year of recalibration to both the aftershocks and the new disruptions we expect to trade patterns, the economy and the geopolitical landscape.

In this episode of the Decisive podcast, we set out our key strategic themes for 2026—adapting to trade realities, shaky economic foundations and shifting asymmetric power in geopolitics. Experts from our multidisciplinary research team unpack the ongoing economic uncertainties, evolving trade policies, and geopolitical dynamics we expect to characterize the year ahead.

Listeners will gain an understanding of the potential impacts of the US midterm elections, the renegotiation of trade agreements, and the strategic competition between major powers, particularly the US and mainland China. The panel highlights the significance of critical minerals and AI technology as national security assets, alongside the challenges posed by financial market volatility and supply chain resilience.

As the world faces a recalibration of trade relationships and economic strategies, this episode provides valuable insights for navigating the complexities of a rapidly changing world. Tune in to stay informed and empowered in your decision-making process.

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• The Age of Agility: Key Themes for 2026
• Global Economic Outlook: November 2025
• Transshipment: Outlook and implications for ASEAN

For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

• 2026: The age of agility
• Inflation indications
• Red Sea maritime risks

Credits:

• Host: Natznet Tesfay
• Guests: Ken Wattret, Aries Poon, Carla Selman
• Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun