Épisodes

  • What does the breakdown in legacy software stocks signal about the US labor market?

    What does the breakdown in legacy software stocks signal about the US labor market?
    Feb 3 2026
    Today’s Macro Minute examines what the sharp breakdown in legacy software stocks is signaling about the U.S. labor market. Darius explains why accelerating AI adoption, SaaS disruption, and corporate cost pressures are reinforcing the risk of a jobless recovery—particularly for younger and less experienced workers—while labor hoarding persists at the top of the market.
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    17 min
  • Have the plunges in precious metals prices concluded?

    Have the plunges in precious metals prices concluded?
    Feb 2 2026
    Markets are grappling with sharp cross-asset volatility as investors reassess U.S. monetary policy uncertainty following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair. Today’s Macro Minute breaks down why recent moves in precious metals and crypto reflect uncertainty—not a confirmed regime shift—and why disciplined, systematic risk management remains critical.
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    10 min
  • Is the productivity story more important than the Fed?

    Is the productivity story more important than the Fed?
    Jan 29 2026
    Darius explains why productivity—not the Federal Reserve—is now the dominant driver of markets. He breaks down how AI-driven layoffs are boosting margins, accelerating disinflation, and reshaping the investment landscape, and why systematic risk management remains essential amid Fourth Turning volatility.
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    12 min
  • Will the Fed continue to ease monetary policy in 2026?

    Will the Fed continue to ease monetary policy in 2026?
    Jan 28 2026
    Today, Darius previews today’s FOMC decision, explaining why the Fed is unlikely to continue easing in 2026 despite disinflationary progress. He outlines the growing risk of policy inertia, the implications of a jobless recovery, and why systematic risk management—not Fed watching—remains critical in the Paradigm C regime
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    7 min
  • Should investors chase the bearish trend in the US dollar?

    Should investors chase the bearish trend in the US dollar?
    Jan 27 2026
    Darius Dale breaks down the U.S. dollar’s decisive breakdown, explaining why structural headwinds—from Fed reform risk to global capital flows—argue for a sustained bearish trend. He also addresses client questions on the SPX/Gold ratio, late-cycle dynamics, and why systematic risk management remains essential as Paradigm C evolves.
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    9 min
  • Will the BOJ blow up the 42 Macro Paradigm C bull market?

    Will the BOJ blow up the 42 Macro Paradigm C bull market?
    Jan 23 2026
    In today’s Macro Minute, Darius breaks down why Japan’s bond and currency stress is unlikely to derail the Paradigm C bull market—while highlighting what it signals about fiscal dominance, central bank independence, and the growing need to rotate away from sovereign bonds. The episode also tackles skepticism around the AI productivity boom and explains why productivity-led disinflation remains a powerful tailwind for risk assets despite rising volatility.
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    10 min
  • What is the true health of the US economy?

    What is the true health of the US economy?
    Jan 22 2026
    Darius cuts through geopolitical noise to assess the true health of the U.S. economy. He explains why recent PCE data confirm continued resilience and disinflation, outlines the six macro cycles investors should focus on, and warns against using leverage in high-beta assets like Bitcoin without systematic risk management.
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    10 min
  • Are the US and Europe breaking up?

    Are the US and Europe breaking up?
    Jan 21 2026
    Darius examines whether rising geopolitical tensions signal a fracture between the U.S. and Europe. He explains why the risk of Europe drifting toward China in a multipolar world is increasing, how this dynamic intersects with a growing supply–demand imbalance in the U.S. Treasury market, and why investors should prioritize disciplined, data-driven risk management over headline-driven narratives as markets navigate the Fourth Turning environment.
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    9 min