This week, Gareth and Jeremy discuss the fragile peace in hot wars and trade wars.

There is a sense of finality about Trump's latest attempts to get Putin and Zelensky to agree on ceasefire terms. Trump is losing patience with both parties. The choice of Budapest as the location for Trump and Putin's meeting was no coincidence.

Meanwhile, Trump's on-and-off talks with Xi seem to be on again. The prospect of an emergent Grand Bargain remains on the table, giving equity markets hope.

Asset markets saw a significant rotation on Tuesday, with a dramatic collapse in precious metals prices and a spike in bond prices, leading to a decline in key sovereign yields. Helpful for both Rachel Reeves and Scott Bessent.

However, it remains unclear if this is just a short-term price correction in gold or a longer-term structural shift. Should investors, still fearful of the pending fiat collapse, buy the dip in precious metals?

Similarly, one needs to ask why bond yields are falling. Jeremy doesn't think there is any reassessment of governments' fiscal responsibility, but rather that it reflects worries about slowing economies or worsening credit quality in private markets.

Regarding the ongoing debate on the AI bubble, they discuss whether former UK deputy PM Nick Clegg can add any value to the issue. What do you think?

Looking ahead, Jeremy covers imminent US and Japanese inflation data and also notes the prospect for updates from the Mag Seven NASDAQ giants over the coming few weeks.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.

This week, Jeremy and Gareth consider Trump's quick switch from declaring peace in the Middle East to opening a (new) trade war with China - which has almost as quickly subsided, with the Trump/Xi meeting now "back on".

Jeremy highlights the ongoing strength of gold - FOMO bubble or long-term trend driven by debasement of currencies ? And the great rewards of being a gold miner - with unparalleled revenue per ounce, and costs of drilling and transport (often oil-based) in decline.

Bitcoin hasn't participated in the recent gold rally - although over a longer timeframe than the last few months, it has hugely outperformed. Perhaps both can be safe havens in a world of unaffordable government debt and spiralling-down currencies ?

Meanwhile equity markets have been relatively stable, although slightly spooked by the current pressure on US lenders, driven by greater-than-apparent losses flowing from a number of insolvencies that shouldn't have rippled the way they have.

Gareth talks about Gear4Music, Sanderson Design Group and Oxford Metrics, all of which this week have highlighted decent trading (or better) along with the benefit of much cost-control, in each case well received by investors.

Next week we have Chinese growth data and UK inflation which could exceed 4% for the first time in over a year. The end of the week will bring US inflation (they're still publishing despite the government shutdown) - anything much above 3.0% will both rattle markets and possibly cost someone at the Bureau of Labor and Statistics their job. Finally, don't forget Japan...Friday also brings their latest inflation print; as always we better hope there's nothing too surprising.

Gareth and Jeremy discuss the highlights of the last week in financial markets.

Gold (and other precious metals) move to all-time highs, representing a foot on the brake. What are they worried about? Well, there are emerging risks around credit conditions in private markets and increasing concerns that the AI capex cycle is turning into a fully fledged bubble, one that Jeff Bezos, no less, called a good bubble. Jeremy mentioned the under-reported British Bicycle Bubble of the 1890s. See link for details: https://www.historyhit.com/the-great-british-bicycle-bubble-of-1896/

Trump, the peacemaker, is making progress in the Middle East, but not in time to win this year's Nobel Peace Prize. However, the consequences for any deal could involve much lower oil prices and maybe a disruption to the ascent of precious metals prices.

Gareth discusses the UK car loan mis-selling update from the FCA, its impact on Vertu Motors and Secure Trust, and this week's results from Beeks Financial Cloud.

Looking forward, the macro news includes trade and inflation data from China, as well as employment and GDP data from the UK.

With the US government shut down, there are question marks over what to expect from the US market or whether the inflation data on October 15th will even be released.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.