The Federal Reserve has officially started a rate-cutting cycle, and Chairman Powell has telegraphed that more cuts are likely on the way. For traders, this is a time to be "licking your chops." This episode is all about:

The FED Playbook.

We dive into the historical data to see what has happened in the 11 previous times since 1980 that the Fed has cut rates multiple times in a row. Discover why, in the absence of a major recession, the market has historically seen double-digit gains 12 months later. We'll explore which sectors—from defensive stocks and small caps to banks and homebuilders—tend to perform best during these cycles.

This isn't a guess; it's a playbook based on decades of market history. Is it time to "back up the truck" and load up? Subscribe for more deep dives into the market forces that matter.

• The Fed Has Signaled a Cutting Cycle: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has clearly telegraphed that a rate-cutting cycle has begun, with potentially one or two more cuts expected before the end of the year. This removes a significant amount of uncertainty for the market.

• History Shows Strong Market Performance: In the 11 times since 1980 that the Fed has initiated a multi-cut cycle without a recession, the S&P 500 has been up an average of 14.5% twelve months later. The market was also higher, on average, three and six months after the first cut.

• The "Goldilocks" Scenario is Here: The current environment of a stable economy, manageable inflation (around 3%), and a Fed that is actively cutting rates is what many describe as a "Goldilocks" scenario for the stock market.

• Expect Broad Market Leadership: Historically, Fed cutting cycles tend to broaden market leadership beyond just the tech sector. Defensive stocks (like consumer staples) tend to gain early, while cyclicals (like banks, homebuilders, and small caps) often perform better later in the cycle.

• The Playbook Says: Be in the Market: Based on the strong historical precedent, the playbook for this environment is to have exposure to the stock market to capitalize on the expected upward trend. While a 10% pullback is always possible and healthy, fighting the long-term trend in this environment would be a mistake.

"The Fed lowering rates multiple times in succession has happened before. History repeats itself. So what is the playbook? Well, let's take a look at what has happened before."

• (00:52) The Fed's Clear Signal: The episode kicks off with the news that Fed Chairman Powell has clearly telegraphed a rate-cutting cycle, removing market uncertainty.

• (02:30) The Historical Playbook: A deep dive into the data from the last 11 multi-cut cycles since 1980, revealing that the market is up an average of 14.5% a year later when there is no recession.

• (09:27) The "Goldilocks" Scenario: An argument for why the current combination of a stable economy, manageable inflation, and an easing Fed creates a highly favorable "Goldilocks" environment for stocks.

• (12:41) Which Sectors Perform Best?: A look at the historical data on which sectors tend to benefit most during a rate-cutting cycle, including defensive stocks, banks, small caps, and homebuilders.

• (14:30) The Bottom Line: "Back Up the Truck": The host's concluding thought that the historical playbook for this scenario is clear: it's time to have exposure to the market and "load up the truck."

Are you bullish or bearish for the rest of the year? Share your take in the comments. If this episode helped you understand the Fed's impact, share it with a friend who is new to investing.

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It's one of the toughest decisions any trader faces: your trade is a winner, but there's still more potential profit on the table. Do you take the money and run, or do you let it ride for a bigger gain? This episode is a candid, real-time debate about this very dilemma, exploring the topic of:

When To Exit a Winning Trade.

Using a live "Phoenix" trade on SPX as a case study, we break down the math and the mindset behind two different approaches. Is it better to lock in a solid 4.4% return early, freeing up your capital and mental energy? Or is it worth risking that profit for an additional 1.1% gain by holding until the end? We explore the psychology of never wanting to give back a profit, the concept of "velocity of money," and the danger of letting the word "need" creep into your trading decisions.

There's no single right answer, but understanding the variables is key to developing your own consistent style. What's your thought process on taking profits? Subscribe for more real-life trading discussions.

• It's a Trade-Off: Certain Profit vs. Potential More: The core dilemma is whether to lock in a guaranteed, solid profit now or risk that profit for a smaller, additional gain by holding the position longer. In the episode's example, the choice was between a certain $355 profit or holding for a potential extra $90.

• The Psychology of "Not Giving It Back": A powerful emotional driver for exiting early is the desire to avoid the painful feeling of a winning trade turning into a loser. For many traders, the goal of consistency means booking a win and moving on to the next opportunity without taking on unnecessary end-of-day risk.

• Risking Your Win: What's the Real Math?: A key question to ask is, "Am I risking my current profit to make a worthwhile additional gain?" In the example, the trader was risking a $355 profit to make an extra $90. Understanding this risk/reward ratio is crucial for making a logical, not emotional, decision.

• The "Velocity of Money" Concept: Exiting a trade early, even if you leave some profit on the table, frees up your capital and mental bandwidth to find and enter the next high-probability trade. This "velocity of money" can be more valuable than squeezing every last penny out of a single position.

• Beware the "Need" Mindset: A major red flag in your decision-making is when you start to feel you need to make a certain amount of money on a trade, perhaps to break even for the month. Trading from a place of desperation or "need" is a danger sign that you are likely to make a poor, emotionally driven decision.

"I think that's one of the worst feelings in trading... you have a decent profit... and then you give it all back."

• (01:56) The Live Trade Scenario: An introduction to the real-life "Phoenix" trade on SPX that sparked the debate: a winning position with the choice to exit early or hold for more profit.

• (07:36) The Psychology of Exiting Early: A deep dive into the mindset of a trader who prefers to take a guaranteed profit to avoid the pain of giving back a win and to maintain consistency.

• (12:16) The Math of Letting It Ride: A crucial look at the numbers. Is it a good trade-off to risk an existing $355 profit to potentially make an additional $90?

• (15:15) The "I Need This" Danger Zone: A warning about the psychological trap of letting your P&L for the month influence your decision on a single trade, and why trading from a place of "need" is a red flag.

• (26:07) The "Velocity of Money" vs. Holding to Expiration: A discussion on when it makes sense to exit a longer-term trade early to free up capital for a new opportunity, versus letting a safe trade ride to expiration.

What's your rule for taking profits on a winning trade? Share your strategy in the comments. If this episode made you think about your own exit strategy, share it with a trading buddy.

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The meme stock phenomenon is back, so much so that a new ETF has been created to track them. But what exactly is in this new basket of high-risk, high-reward stocks? This episode is all about:

Meme Stocks.

We dive into the top 10 holdings of a new meme stock ETF, exploring companies in sectors from real estate and energy to the cutting-edge world of quantum computing. Discover the one thing all these stocks have in common—high short interest—and why that makes them prime candidates for explosive "short squeeze" rallies. We'll also discuss the critical difference between a company with a questionable future like GameStop and a speculative company with a genuinely compelling story, like those in the quantum computing space.

Finally, we'll explain why these highly unpredictable stocks are generally unsuitable for conservative options selling strategies. Are you ready to see what's on the new meme watch list? Subscribe for more insights into the market's hottest trends.

• The New Wave of Meme Stocks: The meme stock trade is active again, leading to the launch of a new ETF designed to track them. This episode reviews the top 10 holdings of this new ETF.

• The Common Denominator is High Short Interest: The defining characteristic of a meme stock is not its business model, but its extremely high short interest. This means many institutional traders are betting against the company, making it vulnerable to a "short squeeze" if retail traders coordinate to buy the stock.

• A Separation of "Memes": Story vs. Obscurity: Not all meme stocks are created equal. Some, like GameStop, have a questionable long-term business model. Others, particularly in speculative tech sectors like quantum computing, have a compelling (though unproven) story that could lead to massive future value.

• Driven by Short Squeezes, Not Fundamentals: The rapid, thousand-percent gains seen in many of these stocks are not typically driven by fundamentals. They are the result of short squeezes, where short sellers are forced to buy back shares at higher and higher prices to cover their losing bets, creating a feedback loop.

• Unsuitable for Conservative Option Selling: Due to their extreme unpredictability and explosive volatility, these stocks are generally not suitable for conservative option selling strategies like credit spreads. The risk of a sudden, massive move wiping out a position is too high.

"All of these things have one thing in common that makes them meme stocks is that the short interest is huge. They have a very high short interest because people are betting against it."

• (00:40) The Return of the Meme Stock ETF: The episode kicks off with the news that a meme stock tracking ETF is back after a previous failure, signaling renewed interest in the space.

• (02:27) The Top 10 Holdings Review: A walkthrough of the top 10 stocks in the new meme ETF, including Open Door (OPEN), Plug Power (PLUG), and several quantum computing companies.

• (09:22) The Critical Difference: Story vs. No Story: A discussion on how some meme stocks have a legitimate, albeit speculative, long-term story (like quantum computing), while others (like GameStop) have a much more questionable future.

• (13:48) Not For Conservative Option Sellers: The host's clear take on why these stocks, despite their high implied volatility, are generally too unpredictable and risky for premium-selling strategies.

What's your favorite meme stock on this list, and why? Let us know in the comments. If you know someone who loves to follow the meme stock craze, share this episode with them.

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